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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)

McClintock (R) 42 (41)
Brown (D) 48 (46)

Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)

McClintock (R) 38
Brown (D) 56

Brown is creeping ever closer to the critical 50 percent mark, which is quite the accomplishment given that this is a district Bush won 61-37. If Brown wins, it would be the sixth most conservative district held by a Democrat. And he's got his opponent, California conservative icon Tom McClintock, on the ropes.

McClintock's unfavorability rating has gone up from 35 a month ago, to 42 today. His 44/42 fav/unfav ratings look positively hideous compared to Brown's 49-29. Brown picked up a few points of support from Democrats and Independents, while Republican are still split 74-14. McClintock's inability to even get to three quarters support is fatal in a district this Republican.

McClintock is out of money and has gone dark the past couple of weeks -- clearly a factor in Brown's strong favorability numbers. Charlie is already banking votes and building up a nice cushion before Election Day even arrives. You want to throw an anchor to a drowning Republican? Here's your chance.

On the web:
Charlie Brown for Congress
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CA-4 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            134 (33%)
Republicans          169 (43%)
Independents/Other    97 (24%)

18-29                 73 (18%)
30-44                132 (33%)
45-59                118 (30%)
60+                   77 (19%)

Voted                 52 (13%)
Not Voted            348 (87%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom McClintock? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         34%         31%         11%         14%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 44%         42%         14%

MEN                 49%         39%         12%
WOMEN               39%         45%         16%

DEMOCRATS           29%         61%         10%
REPUBLICANS         61%         27%         12%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         38%         21%

18-29               41%         45%         14%
30-44               46%         38%         16%
45-59               44%         43%         13%
60+                 45%         42%         13%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Brown? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         36%         18%         11%         22%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 49%         29%         22%

MEN                 47%         32%         21%
WOMEN               51%         26%         23%

DEMOCRATS           74%         12%         14%
REPUBLICANS         32%         46%         22%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         23%         33%

18-29               52%         26%         22%
30-44               47%         31%         22%
45-59               50%         28%         22%
60+                 48%         29%         23%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Charlie Brown the Democrat or Tom McClintock the Republican?

                   BROWN       MCCLINTOCK  OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         42%          4%          6%

VOTED               56%         38%          6%
NOT VOTED           47%         43%          4%

MEN                 44%         47%          5%          4%
WOMEN               52%         37%          3%          8%

DEMOCRATS           88%          7%          1%          4%
REPUBLICANS         14%         74%          5%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        51%         34%          7%          8%

18-29               51%         39%          3%          7%
30-44               47%         44%          5%          4%
45-59               49%         41%          5%          5%
60+                 45%         45%          3%          7%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         40%          5%          5%

VOTED               46%         48%          6%
NOT VOTED           51%         39%          5%

MEN                 53%         37%          5%          5%
WOMEN               47%         43%          5%          5%

DEMOCRATS           11%         83%          4%          2%
REPUBLICANS         82%          6%          5%          7%
OTHER               47%         41%          7%          5%

18-29               46%         45%          4%          5%
30-44               53%         37%          6%          4%
45-59               48%         40%          6%          6%
60+                 53%         38%          4%          5%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 07:15 PM PDT.

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