Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)
McClintock (R) 42 (41)
Brown (D) 48 (46)
Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)
McClintock (R) 38
Brown (D) 56
Brown is creeping ever closer to the critical 50 percent mark, which is quite the accomplishment given that this is a district Bush won 61-37. If Brown wins, it would be the sixth most conservative district held by a Democrat. And he's got his opponent, California conservative icon Tom McClintock, on the ropes.
McClintock's unfavorability rating has gone up from 35 a month ago, to 42 today. His 44/42 fav/unfav ratings look positively hideous compared to Brown's 49-29. Brown picked up a few points of support from Democrats and Independents, while Republican are still split 74-14. McClintock's inability to even get to three quarters support is fatal in a district this Republican.
McClintock is out of money and has gone dark the past couple of weeks -- clearly a factor in Brown's strong favorability numbers. Charlie is already banking votes and building up a nice cushion before Election Day even arrives. You want to throw an anchor to a drowning Republican? Here's your chance.
On the web:
Charlie Brown for Congress
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CA-4 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 134 (33%)
Republicans 169 (43%)
Independents/Other 97 (24%)
18-29 73 (18%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 118 (30%)
60+ 77 (19%)
Voted 52 (13%)
Not Voted 348 (87%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom McClintock? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 34% 31% 11% 14%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 44% 42% 14%
MEN 49% 39% 12%
WOMEN 39% 45% 16%
DEMOCRATS 29% 61% 10%
REPUBLICANS 61% 27% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 38% 21%
18-29 41% 45% 14%
30-44 46% 38% 16%
45-59 44% 43% 13%
60+ 45% 42% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Brown? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 36% 18% 11% 22%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 49% 29% 22%
MEN 47% 32% 21%
WOMEN 51% 26% 23%
DEMOCRATS 74% 12% 14%
REPUBLICANS 32% 46% 22%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 23% 33%
18-29 52% 26% 22%
30-44 47% 31% 22%
45-59 50% 28% 22%
60+ 48% 29% 23%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Charlie Brown the Democrat or Tom McClintock the Republican?
BROWN MCCLINTOCK OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 42% 4% 6%
VOTED 56% 38% 6%
NOT VOTED 47% 43% 4%
MEN 44% 47% 5% 4%
WOMEN 52% 37% 3% 8%
DEMOCRATS 88% 7% 1% 4%
REPUBLICANS 14% 74% 5% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 34% 7% 8%
18-29 51% 39% 3% 7%
30-44 47% 44% 5% 4%
45-59 49% 41% 5% 5%
60+ 45% 45% 3% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 40% 5% 5%
VOTED 46% 48% 6%
NOT VOTED 51% 39% 5%
MEN 53% 37% 5% 5%
WOMEN 47% 43% 5% 5%
DEMOCRATS 11% 83% 4% 2%
REPUBLICANS 82% 6% 5% 7%
OTHER 47% 41% 7% 5%
18-29 46% 45% 4% 5%
30-44 53% 37% 6% 4%
45-59 48% 40% 6% 6%
60+ 53% 38% 4% 5%