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I read a comment yesterday here at Kos that said something like, "People are too impatient and making too much of the early vote numbers."

This comment wasn't directed at me (directly, anyway), and I didn't take it personally. But my Nevada-centric response is: Nearly 30% of registered Nevadans have already voted (likely more than 40% of all votes that will be cast), and by Friday, more than half the votes that Nevada will cast will already be banked. We're nearly at halftime, and one candidate is already up a couple of touchdowns. As I've mentioned in every diary in this series, this is no reason for complacency. Me, I'm still canvassing Las Vegas every single day.

Yesterday was the final weekend day of early voting here in Nevada. The numbers remained stellar for the good guys. New today, I've also put together a snapshot glimpse at four other early voting states.

Updated with Sunday's actual party breakdown in Washoe.

Keep in mind that many early vote polling locations are closed on Sundays in Washoe. Also, Washoe has yet to release party breakdown of Sunday's votes, so I've estimated them based on previous trends, but will update the chart with actual data when it becomes available.

No mail on Sundays = no mailed ballots received.

Clark County (Las Vegas) takeaways:

  • 807,271 voters are registered in Clark County. 29.9% have already voted.
  • Democrats outnumber Republicans 382,807 to 259,975 (122,832 more), or by a 1.47:1 ratio. Democrats have out-voted Republicans 1.74:1 thus far in Clark.
  • 33.7% of registered Democrats have voted compared to 28.6% registered Republicans.

Washoe County (Reno/Sparks) takeaways:

  • 34,061 Washoe residents voted in the 14 day early voting period in 2004. 51,209 have voted in 9 of 14 days this year.
  • Democrats only hold a 1,286 registered voter lead in Washoe, but about 9,500 more Democrats have voted than Republicans thus far.
  • There are a total of 231,470 registered voters in Washoe. 22.1% of them have already voted, not counting absentee voters. (An additional 7.8% have requested absentee ballots.)
  • About 4,000 more Repubicans have requested absentee ballots than Democrats. Absentee voters will very likely narrow the overall early vote gap in Washoe significantly. This is reflected in the projections below.

Yes, but what do you think the actual vote totals are?

Why just Clark and Washoe?

87% of Nevada's registered voters live in Clark+Washoe. The other 13% are very red, but if Obama can carry ~53+% of Clark+Washoe, he'll win Nevada.

What about other states

As a bonus, I put together a snapshot glimpse at a handful of other early voting states.

My wife and I only have two days of canvassing left in Vegas before we head home to Oakland to work on the No on Prop 8 campaign, so we're out the door. Thanks in advance for tips/recs, and I'll get to any questions later today.

Originally posted to HigherPie on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:14 AM PDT.

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