While Public Policy Polling is a Democratic-leaning firm, thus far it's been almost bang-on regarding the race in North Carolina. A new poll just released today has the presidential race narrowing significantly, with Obama now up 49-48--down from 51-44 just a week ago. In the Senate race, Hagan is still out in front, 48-45--down from 49-42 a week ago. (Link)
I had a hunch things would tighten up with McCain finally visiting the state last week. Looking at the internals, McCain seems to be running it up among rural voters, small-town voters and older voters--he's got huge leads among all three, but he's still underperforming what Bush got among these in 2004. However, Obama has one key advantage--he's got more votes in the bank at this stage than Kerry did in 2004. 63 percent of early voters said they voted for Obama, compared with 52 percent for Kerry in 2004. Even if McCain does come back to win, PPP's president confirms what we North Carolina Dems already know--by keeping McCain tied down here, he might not be able to turn it around in Virginia and Colorado.
It looks just as good for Hagan. She's got the support of a whopping 61 percent of early voters, compared with only 44 percent at this stage for Erskine Bowles in 2002. She's also got a huge lead among independents, while Dole led among independents at this stage six years ago.
At this point, I'm probably going to feel good even if McCain and Dole do manage to pull it off ... we've bloodied them both up pretty severely. And the notion of North Carolina being solid red has just been kicked over the overpass.