538 don't have the polling commentary up yet but I've noticed that NM and VA are now both listed as "safe" Democrat, for the first time I believe.
This means they are now listing as safe - meaning >95% probability - all Kerry states except NH, plus the Bush 04 states of IA, NM, VA.
This is a total EV of 273.
Of these, VA is the "closest", with a projection of a +7.2% Obama win.
So VA is on course to be THE tipping point state which brings the election home for Obama.
Champagne is still on ice, but things are looking very good with a week to go.
[Update] Here's the link to the commentary which Nate has just added.
It emphasises that the state polling is still excellent for Obama:
If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.
Regarding Obama's win probability, he's actually more cautious than his model, saying:
Colorado and Virginia lean more strongly toward Obama, and McCain may or may not be within striking distance.
I'm not sure that a 4% chance really counts as "striking distance", but perhaps he wants to keep people interested...!