According the most recent PPIC poll (the gold standard poll in California), Proposition 8 is trailing by a 52%-44% margin. While the margin has tightened up since September, key crosstabs give us reasons to feel optimistic. Independent voters are trending in No's direction. In September, Independent voters were opposed by a 53%-42% margin. In the most recent polls, Independent voters are opposed by a 58%-39% margin. Additionally, there has been significant movement among Latino voters. In September Latino voters were opposed to Prop 8 by a 50%-46% margin. They are now opposed by a 53%-43% margin. So where has the gain for Prop 8 come from? Republicans. They were in favor by a 62%-34% margin. However, they are now in favor by a 70%-26% margin. That's still not bad news for our side. Considering the ads the Yes on 8 side ran, the fact that over a quarter of Republicans are still voting no means they have essentially dug in their heels and will vote No (many of them have probably already voted No). More
So how will we defeat Prop 8?
- Independent Voters. The March 2000 Primary featured a Democratic Presidential race where the winner was already decided. The Republican Race featured a marquee matchup between Dubya and McCain. Unfortunately for McCain, only Republicans can vote in California GOP Primaries.
- New Voters/Young voters. I can't tell you how many people I know who have already cast ballots against Prop 8 who couldn't vote in the March 2000 Primary. Obama is going to be emptying college campuses and these students will be voting No as well.
- Republicans/McCain voters who are voting against Proposition 8. Every McCain voter I know is voting against Prop 8 and some of them are extremely conservative. My family members have been working on many conservative voters they know to vote No as well. For example, yesterday, my brother was at brunch with a very conservative couple that is good friends with the family. The husband is an LAPD liutenant yet my brother convinced both of them to vote No. There's no way in hell either one would vote for Obama but both are voting No on 8.
In addition to Republican converts from us: two different groups of Republicans are powering the over quarter in the polls who are opposed to Prop 8: Libertarian Republicans (particularly those in Rural Norcal) and the set I'm around: wealthy Republicans who are socially liberal. Now this may not seem important but it cuts into the margins. There are a lot of wealthy people living in California, it's a massive demographic and while a majority are Democrats, a sizeable minority are Republicans. These votes can offset Democrats, particularly low info voters who vote for yes. Keep in mind that after those disgusting ads, over a quarter of Republicans are still planning to vote against this. It was Ronald Reagan who in 1978 opposed Proposition 6 and sent a constitutional amendment that would have allowed for the firing of gay teachers to a crushing and humiliating defeat. Even in 1978, California voters (thanks to the Gipper of all people) rejected Anita Bryant's shitshow.
And I'll give you an example of my optimistim. Propositions 73 and 85 would both have restricted the ability of a minor to obtain an abortion. My late grandmother was a staunch Republican. Richard Nixon was her favorite president and I'm sure if she was alive today, she would be talking about Obama the terrorist. Yet she voted against 73 and 85 and believed strongly in abortion rights. She also believed luke warmly in gay rights. They weren't her top priority (catching communists and terrorists were) but she would never take away rights from gay people. On abortion, she wasn't alone. 13 Counties that voted for Bush in 2004 voted against Proposition 85. And I firmly believe that not only will these counties vote No on Proposition 4 but No on 8 as well. My entire family has been working over drive at reaching out to conservative friends and getting them to vote No. And thus far we're having success.
- Blacks and Latinos will vote against Proposition 8. California's black population is among one of the most educated in the country and those blacks with college educations and post grads will vote no. Every single black I know is voting against Proposition 8. Almost every black elected official in the state is opposed and a great deal of black clergy are opposed.
Now with the exception of one person (he's a self loathing latino and self hating closet queer), every single Latino I know is voting No on Prop 8. And beyond ancedotal evidence, the polls back it up. A majority of Latinos are opposed. Now why is this? Well for one thing, Latinos are much more tolerant of homosexuality than people realize. For another, the Latinos who vote skew much younger. Those younger voters have much more in common with their white counterparts than their parents do. This is especially true of young Latino voters who's parents are immigrants. The parents can't vote but the kids can and the kids support gay rights. That is critical to defeating this Proposition.
- Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers in poll after poll show the highest rate of oppostion (Millenials show the lowest rates of support which leads me to believe in the end Millenials will vote more heavily against Prop 8 than the Boomers). A good way to win an election is to have 50-64 year olds solidly behind you.
- The Mormon Overreach. If there is one thing Californians don't like, it is any type of electoral malfeasance and corruption. California voters have traditionally rejected politicians even with a slight association of corruption. Those extortion letters did not help their cause and I think it says something when Mormons who can't vote parade down California streets screaming against gays and Californians who can't begin spontaneously rallying against them.
- Us. Conservatives and Fundamentalist Christians have long screamed about evil San Francisco Liberals, Berkely Radicals, Hollywood weirdo liberals, Santa Monica environmentalists, Bay Area Hippies, and Santa Barbara Communists. Well guess what, now we get an opportunity to vote. Moreover, I am hoping that every single Kossack in California will sign up to volunteer against Prop 8:
http://www.noonprop8.com/...
This is our great battle. Imagine how happy the fundamentalist Christians and the right wing wackos would be just to see the rights of gay and lesbian citizens taken away. We cannot let them do it and we will not let them do it.