This is partly in response to MissAnneThorpe's heart-wrenching diary about her job loss, but it's by no means limited to her situation. A great many of us are facing financial turmoil, and unless I'm seriously misreading the economic signals - and I am not an economist so I might well be - that's not likely to change very much, very soon.
While I'm not an economist, I am something of a math geek. And in times like this, one good rule is:
Put serendipity to work for you.
More after the fold.
There are lots of definitions for serendipity, but in mathematical terms what it comes down to is fairly simple: encountering an unexpected but worthwhile opportunity. And in these economic times, that can actually be more likely, rather than less. How?
Most of the time, we narrow our scope of opportunity, and reasonably so. Any life change involves both transactional costs and risks. Most of us don't have the resources to absorb many losses, so we tend to "play close to the vest," to minimize our downside risk even if that means passing on some opportunities. In fact, a lot of the time, we don't even look very far or often for opportunities, because of those transactional costs and risks. Even if we couldn't work out the mathematics of it, we're acting on sound, intuitive mathematical principles.
But what happens when the 'default' situation changes? What if you're in serious risk of losing your job, your home, your life savings, or indeed you've already done so?
This discounts your transactional costs and risks.
If you've lost your home, or believe you're likely to, you're going to have to move anyway. If you've lost your job, or believe you're likely to, you're going to have to get a new job anyway. Those transactional costs already have to be paid - or likely will have to be paid - so you shouldn't weigh them as heavily in considering whether to make changes.
Moreover, because your present situation is already so perilous, the risk-differential for alternatives isn't as great. A "risky" opportunity is not as dangerous if staying where you are is already fraught with risk. By way of example, ordinarily it would be absurdly risky to jump from a speeding train. But what if the car you're in is on fire, and there are no other exits? The fire in the car doesn't lessen the risks of jumping from a speeding train, but it greatly lessens the risk-differential. Yes, you may get hurt or killed jumping from the train, but if you stay where you are you're going to die anyway.
In short, when in peril, you should broaden your opportunity search.
Ideas that you'd reasonably assess as "giving up too much" or being "too risky" under normal circumstances are worth considering in times of dire peril. Dreams you may have written off as "silly" - or dreams you'd never let yourself dare to dream - now belong on the menu. Check them out. Maybe none of them will pan out, but maybe the process of checking out one of them will spark another dream that does. And that's exactly how we tumble onto some opportunity we'd never expected, but which we're delighted to have met. And that is ... serendipity.
Yes, these are dangerous economic times. Yes, it can look very bleak, even hopeless. But when your present situation is hopeless, lots of other situations - however slim their hopes - become downright hopeful by comparison. And that's not a silly hope, or a blind hope, or throwing caution to the wind, or any of the things we usually tell ourselves to (reasonably!) take an intuitive measure of transactional cost and risk.
It is a reasonable and reasoned hope.
And anytime you can choose hope over despair, CHOOSE HOPE. Put serendipity to work for you.