Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 50 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole saguaro! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
I’ll be wrapping up the series either Thursday or next Monday with a final summary of what to watch for on election day from the 50 states. Today, though, it’s time to concentrate on the final state in the series—a state known for the Grand Canyon, Navajo culture, retirement communities, and politicians who lose Presidential elections. Today we’re raising ARIZONA!
Here’s Arizona’s Congressional map:
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
I’ve sometimes heard Arizona jokingly referred to as a "Gay 90s" state, meaning that anyone who lives there is either gay, or 90. That’s cute, but not accurate these days. Arizona is really one of a cluster of four Southwestern states (the others are New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, in order from blue to purple) that have large latino population concentrations and which have been gaining population and turning bluer over recent years. All four states have been identified by every strategist from Ruy Texiera to Kos to Chris Bowers as key elements in a national Democratic majority. We’re talking about a region on the edge of transforming America.
Of those four states, Arizona is perhaps the slowest to turn blue, and with a favorite son on the national ticket, it has not been getting anywhere near the national attention of the other three. But it is no longer a safe red state by any means. Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996. The Governor is a Democrat and the GOP margins in the state legislature have shrunk to the point where just three or four takeovers in either chamber would give the Democrats a majority—and some Republican leaders have predicted that that is exactly what will happen in 2008. In 2006, the House delegation went from 2-6 Republican to a 4-4 tie; and has an excellent chance of further bluing to 5-3 or 6-2 Democrat. That’s a lot of change in just a few years!
Arizona is dominated by Maricopa County, with the blue Oasis of Phoenix in the center and many sprawling suburbs historically providing Republicans with comfortable cushions in statewide elections. Outside that hub, things seem to get counterintuitively bluer as they get more rural, with Indian reservations to the north and latino neighborhoods to the south. Tucson and Yuma are additional blue islands, and Flagstaff no longer a conservative stronghold. In general, the bluest counties are the ones that share borders with Mexico and New Mexico.
BLOGS: For single-state coverage of Arizona, turn to AZ Netroots. Good stuff here.
http://www.aznetroots.com/
PRESIDENT: : Safe McCain. Yes, there were some possibilities that involved boldly challenging McCain in his home state, and they might well have worked, and with a Republican from out of state, Arizona is likely to join CO, NM and NV as part of a very winnable Southwestern bloc for Democrats for the foreseeable future, but Obama has staked out his path to victory elsewhere.
In the final days, a couple of polls have shown Obama within –five- four THREE points in McCain’s home state. Here’s the latest from Jonathan Silver on the subject:
http://www.mydd.com/...
And here’s one from the front page of Kos:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
I mean—friggin’ ARIZONA!
My take, though, is that the choice to compete in Arizona should have been made months ago, or at least one month ago, and this is more a reflection on what might have been than anything else. We’ve got TWELVE other swing states with realistic chances to win, where Obama has been on the ground all along (VA, CO, OH, MO, NV, NC, FL, IN, WV, ND, MT and GA), and it seems to me that to drop some of those to chase Arizona would probably mean narrowly losing Arizona and some of the other close dozen as well. But, DAMN! What I said about AZ "becoming" part of a winnable four-state Southwestern bloc? Skip that; it’s already happened.
SENATE: Not up this year. McCain is up in 2010; the even less appealing Senator Kyl is in 2012. We had a decent contest against Kyl in 2006, but most of the energy got sucked out of the race that year due to the large number of better prospects across America.
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Not up this year. Statewide Democrats include rock star Governor Janet Napolitano, a great prospect to contest McAncient’s Senate Seat in 2010, and Attorney General Terry Goddard. All other statewide offices are currently held by Republicans. With the exception of the Secretary of State, I reccomend first focusing on taking the narrowly GOP state legislature and then launching careers for the bigger offices from there.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
The Arizona legislature is quirky and fluid. Like Washington State, they have a set of districts, each of which elects two representatives and one State Senator. The Senators as well as the Representatives serve two-year terms and thus the entire Senate is up every cycle. AND legislators are term limited to a total of eight years of service, so there aren’t a lot of long-term undislodgeable incumbents. Put all that together, and you have a legislature more adaptable than most to changing with the times.
House of Representatives: 33R, 27D. Deficit of 6, 4 takeovers needed to flip the chamber.
Senate: 17R, 13D. Deficit of 4, 3 takeovers needed to flip the chamber.
We’ve been making steady gains all decade, and could tie or flip either or both chambers this year. And if we don’t, there will be another chance in 2010 at all 90 seats, in a year when Napolitano may well be seeking an open US Senate seat. Earlier this month, an Arizona GOP spokesman indicated that he believed the legislature would flip Democrat, if the election were held that day, and things haven’t been getting better for them since then.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Northeast AZ, including Flagstaff and the Navajo nation. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) v. Sidney Hay (R). This open seat has all but been conceded by the Republicans as a Democratic takeover, and let’s hear it for Arizona Democrats! This flip will give Democrats a majority of the state’s House districts for the first time since I started paying attention, maybe for the first time in Arizona’s history. It will also give Democrats control over all four districts that touch the "four corners" state border (the other three are Matheson in UT-02, Salazar in CO-03, and Lujan in NM-03).
http://www.kirkpatrickforarizona.com/
District 2—West Phoenix suburbs, including Peoria and Goodyear. Also the Nevada border, and if you look at the map, you’ll see a weird spew heading many miles east to take in a blob that’s almost completely surrounded by the 1st district. That blob is a Hopi reservation which is located inside the Navajo reservation. I’m not clear on the details, but the Hopi and the Navajo don’t get along much, and they asked the government to put their respective lands into two different districts. One of the few ridiculous looking gerrymanders that turns out to be perfectly reasonable. Also, as far as I know, both nations, to the extent they turn out to vote, favor Democrats.
This year, the 2nd is not on the map. Our nominee is John Thrasher, a teacher and music conductor. If we get the 1st and 3rd this year, watch for it to be more vigorously contested next time.
http://www.thrasherforcongress.org/
District 3—North Phoenix suburbs, including Paradise Valley. Bob Lord (D) v. John Shadegg (Inc R) is definitely THE BIG ONE for this year, close state legislature or no close state legislature. With Kirkpatrick looking like a safe pickup, and Mitchell maintaining the edge in his bid for a second term, all eyes in Arizona are looking toward the 3rd as the big tossup of the year. Unlike the 1st, this is one of the few districts where some last minute time or money still has a chance to make a difference, even now.
A lot has been written about this one, which is a priority for the netroots. For one thing, turning Paradise Valley blue is a key component of turning Arizona blue statewide in general. A Congressman Lord would be a role model for persuading the Phoenix suburbs that Democrats can and do represent their interests.
For another thing, Shadegg is the wingnut’s wingnut, and a leader among wingnuts. He was the fringe right’s choice for minority leader in a post Hastur, post-Delay, post-majority GOP House Delegation, and losing him would deprive the fucktards of a key standard bearer.
And for yet another thing, Shadegg is ripe for defeat. He started out the campaign cycle by announcing his retirement, and was reluctantly dragged back into a re-election bid by other Republicans, who could sense a loss of the seat coming. Then, it was discovered that his campaign office was outside his district. Then, in the 11th hour, the campaign credit card of one of Shadegg’s senior campaign officers somehow turned up at Lord HQ. Shadegg’s lame excuse that the card was left behind by a Shadegg volunteer who went to Lord’s office to buy an Obama bumper sticker raised more questions than it answered. It’s not as epic a failure as, say, the Keystone Republicans of NY-13, but it’s close.
Bob Lord is a red to Blue candidate and a frequent suggestion for Hell-to-Pay fundraising drives on Kos. In fact, in the endgame, it’s one of Markos’s special projects, every bit as important as, say, Darcy burner or Charlie Brown. Here’s the most recent frontpage Kos diary on AZ-03:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Probably some time today, there will be another. It’s not only THE BIG ONE for Arizona, it’s one of the top ten or so for America! Read more and donate here:
http://www.lord2008.com/
District 4— Phoenix itself. A safe seat for Arizona’s longest serving Congressman, Democrat Ed Pastor.
http://www.edpastor.com/
District 5—East Phoenix suburbs, including Tempe and Scottsdale. Harry Mitchell (Inc D) was a surprise last minute winner in 2006, and was a top target for defeat in a district that supposedly leans red. By now, though, the RCCC has its grabby little paws full just trying to keep the 3rd, and Mitchell seems to have the lid on his campaign, if not quite nailed down. We’ll have to fight to keep this one in 2010, probably, but as the district gets used to Mitchell, he’ll eventually become safe.
http://www.harry2008.com/
District 6—South Phoenix suburbs, including Mesa and Chandler. Rebecca Schneider (D) v. Jeff the Flake (Inc R). I’m told Schneider stepped up to run in this district in response to netroot recruitment efforts from Barry Welch, BENAWU and the others who worked to put Democrats on the ticket in as many districts as possible so that voters would have a choice, everywhere. AZ-06 had no Democrat at all in 2006, and so simply having a challenger is a big step up. The 6th is not on the map as a takeover opportunity, and will probably be the last district in the state to flip. But then, they said the 5th and the 3rd would never be competitive either.
http://rebeccaschneiderforcongress.com/
District 7—Southwest AZ, including Yuma, Nogales, and most of the border with Mexico. Raul Grijalva (Inc D) is safe in a district drawn to concentrate Democrats.
District 8—Southeast AZ, including Tucson. Gabrielle Giffords (Inc D) is another freshman, but unlike Harry Mitchell, Giffords ought to have a lot less trouble getting re-elected. The district, which leans Democrat, was previously occupied by one of the last moderate Republicans (and one of the few openly gay ones, as well); and the wingnuts they nominate against Giffords aren’t likely to get a favorable reception any time soon. Additionally, Giffords has the rugged outdoorswoman package going, is better looking than Sarah Palin and has the added advantage of a fully functional brain. Safe Dem hold.
http://www.giffordsforcongress.com/
REDISTRICTING ARIZONA: Arizona will get at least one, maybe two more Congressional districts in advance of the 2012 elections, so it will be vital to push for control of the legislature and to keep the Governor’s mansion. Watch for those offices to be among the hottest in the nation in 2010.
The existing map is a Republican gerrymander designed to limit the Democrats to two seats. It failed, and changing demographics will work to make Arizona more blue.
Hard to draw an entire map without seeing where the new population is, but I'd reccomend quartering the existing 4th, which is packed with blue voters, and having a western district that bypasses the Phoenix suburbs entirely (it could bracket them from the "Hopi" part to Yuma, and maybe be the Grijalva district, while a new district covers the Southern border between Yuma and Tucson).
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Washington (Darcy Burner, WA-08) http://www.dailykos.com/...
Minnesota (Al Franken, MN-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Connecticut (Jim Himes, CT-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kansas: ( Don Betts, KS-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Florida (The South Florida Trio, FL-18, 21 and 25): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Louisiana (Don Cazayoux, LA-06): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Montana (Linda McCulloch, Secretary of State): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Indiana (Jill Long Thompson, IN-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Hampshire ( Jeanne Shaheen, NH-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...