As summarized in this article in the East Valley Tribune, three polls in the past week has shown the race in Arizona to be in a dead heat! Kos also has his own poll out in the field to be released this week. But the fourth poll (ASU Cronkite-Eight poll) results were just released, and this poll also confirms that Arizona is now a battleground state. I'm so proud of my state...results below the fold.
According to the new ASU Cronkite-Eight Poll, Arizona is now deemed a "toss up" state:
Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by two points (46 percent to 44 percent) in Arizona, a margin that makes the race too close to call, according to a new Cronkite/Eight Poll. The poll of 1,019 registered voters in Arizona was conducted Oct. 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Awesome! The pollster states that the Arizona race will come down to who turns out their voters the best:
According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, "The race in Arizona is very close. Supporters of both candidates are highly committed to their candidates, with 94 percent of Obama’s supporters and 93 percent of McCain’s supporters indicating that they are firmly committed and won’t change their mind before Election Day. In addition, the undecided vote is very low, which means that there are few people remaining to be persuaded during the last week of the campaign. Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."
Obama has the best ground game compared to McCain, although McCain does have a home state advantage. There's one official Obama office in Phoenix, compared to three for McCain in the state (supposedly for canvassing nearby states, but clearly now here to play defense). Send some volunteers to Arizona to GOTV!
My prediction is that Arizona might tip in the end to Obama if the race is called early, and late McCain voters stay home. However, we all know that Obama voters are more enthusiastic. This is going to be an exciting election night, and I hope my state delivers the cherry on top of the landslide for the rest of you guys!