Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 50-44. All trackers are data from three days to five days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). Data is updated as new information becomes available. Daily posting is approximately 7:30 am EDT. LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 50 (50) 44 (43) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 49 (49) 44 (45) 2.9 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (51) 47 (46) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 49 (50) 42 (42) 3.4 LV
Battleground: 49 (49) 46 (46) 3.1 LV Again.
Gallup: 51 (50) 42 (43) 2 RV LV II is 51 (51) - 44 (44).
Yesterday
IBD/TIPP: 48 (47) 44 (44) 3.3 LV alternate link
ABC/WaPo: 52 (52) 45 (45) 3 LV
Ipsos/McClatchy:50 (50) 45 (42) 3.4 LV
Pew: 53 (53) 38 (39) 3.5 LV
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Sunday, +6 Mon, and +5 Tues with a +9 Sat sample rolling off (rounding can take place.)
Here is the tracker-only, high-sensitivity pollster.com graph from last night, which is exactly where R2K is.
As we saw yesterday, the slight McCain uptick is more prominent than the Obama downtick, and frankly, it is hard to see how McCain could not have an uptick. McCain isn't coming in on 11/4 at 42-43%, and certainly not the 38% that Pew has him at, but that doesn't mean they are wrong about Obama's number. Obama's 49-53 range is more consistent than McCain's 39-46 in the polls.
Added: More evidence of Republicans coming home, w/stable Dems:
Nate's version of things from yesterday's poll analysis:
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.
Are the polls accurate? Here are the arguments for and against, this time from the WaPo:
The McCain campaign's case that the race is closer than many polls suggest appears to rest largely on the proposition that the composition of the electorate this year will closely resemble that in 2004.
McCain pollsters do anticipate that turnout could be even higher this year than the robust turnout four years ago, but they also expect that Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain.
But why should that be true? Enthusiasm and committment is much less for McCain voters than Obama voters. I'm in this camp:
"It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement," said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. "Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it's hard to imagine that turning around."
That latter matches the following poll data. From AP-GfK on the battlegrounds (h/t Kitty):
From Pew:
While Pew's generous 15 point LV lead for Obama is notable, what's also notable is this in early voting from Pew:
And what about those late deciders? Usually, according to Brian Schaffner, they tend to break Dem:
brownsox has a round-up of other early voting numbers, but it is notable that numbers from ABC/WaPo and Gallup also favor Obama. From Gallup:
The voter preferences of the group of 1,430 individuals who have already voted and who were interviewed by Gallup between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27 show a 53% to 43% Obama over McCain tilt.
Among the group of those who say they have not yet voted, but will
before Election Day, the skew towards Obama is more pronounced, at 54%
to 40%. By comparison, those who are going to wait to vote on Nov. 4
manifest a narrower 50% to 44% Obama over McCain candidate preference.
One of McCain's closing arguments is about taxes, but it's not selling well. From ABC:
The McCain campaign currently finds itself in an uncomfortable position on taxes.
According to the latest polling by ABC News, Obama currently maintains a ten-point lead over McCain on an issue which Republicans typically own.
The last Democratic candidate for president to have that kind of lead was Bill Clinton in 1992.
As George Stephanopoulos noted on the Tuesday edition of "World News with Charles Gibson," "When Democrats win on taxes, they tend to win elections."
The WSJ agrees:
Sen. John McCain has made tax policy the centerpiece of his homestretch pitch to voters: The Arizona Republican unveiled an ad Tuesday accusing Sen. Barack Obama of pitching "higher taxes" and planning to "spread your income," then hammered his Democratic rival's economic plan in Pennsylvania.
Yet the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, conducted in mid-October, showed voters preferred Sen. Obama to Sen. McCain on taxes by 14 percentage points. After Labor Day, Sen. McCain had a one-point edge on that issue.
One other argument McCain has been pushing is that one party rule is a bad thing. The voters agree - if McCain is President.
Voters express a clear preference, 57% to 38%, for divided party control of Congress and the presidency if John McCain wins the presidential election, but are evenly divided, 48% to 47%, in their preferences for the party that should control Congress if Barack Obama is elected president.
Conclusion; Republican rule scares the bejeebers out of the voters. Been there, done that, not going back.