A new Pennsylvania poll released this morning shows Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain.
Also, news on the anti-Obama DVD being included in newspapers, but we also have evidence that the Wright/Rezko line of attack may be backfiring on McCain and causing him to lose more independents.
And, another battleground editorial endorsement for Barack Obama.
A hard dose of reality for McCain's chances in Pennsylvania:
"If you look at cold, hard numbers, in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, he is going to have to win at least 15 percent of the Democratic vote, 95 percent of the Republican vote and 60 percent of the independent vote," Plouffe said.
60% of independents? Are you kidding me? Even in McCain's home state of Arizona, McCain is only winning 40% of the independent vote, according to the recent ASU poll, which also had McCain only +2! If McCain can't even get a majority of independents in his home state, how is he supposed to get 60% in Pennsylvania?
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More bad news for McCain in Pennsylvania? A new poll released this morning from Franklin & Marshall/Philly Daily News shows Obama +13:
"The race shows a lot of stability," said poll director Terry Madonna. "Obama is very well positioned to win the state, unless McCain has a breakthrough moment."
The poll shows Obama with a significant lead among women, voters under 35, and independents. McCain is ahead among white men and well ahead among fundamentalist Christians.
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Quote of the day:
"Barack Obama understands Joe the Plumber better than John McCain," said Theresa Riddle, a 48-year-old Republican in Springfield, Ohio, who participated in the survey and spoke in a follow-up interview. "When John McCain talks about the economy, he says nothing."
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Republicans are getting desperate, so you know what that means - attack, attack, attack! The AP reports on anti-Obama DVDs being distributed in several swing states:
Readers of Ohio's three largest newspapers, along with papers in Florida and Nevada, are finding an anti-Barack Obama DVD in editions this week.
Citizens United, a conservative advocacy group based in Washington, plans to release a 95-minute film in the five swing-state publications to highlight Obama's record on abortion rights, foreign policy and his past associations, including his relationship with former pastor Rev. Jermiah Wright. The group said it planned to spend more than $1 million to distribute about 1.25 million copies of "Hype: The Obama Effect."
(Photo credit: Talking Points Memo)
Unfortunately for the GOP, these attacks aren't working this time. MediaCurves reports that the latest anti-Obama ad, featuring Tony Rezko and Reverand Wright, actually solidifies support among independents who were previously only leaning towards Obama:
“This is another example of an attack ad focusing on a candidate’s perceived negative attributes that seems to back fire,” commented Glenn Kessler, president and CEO of HCD Research. “The net result appears to be a strengthening of support among a segment of voters who were leaning toward Obama prior to viewing the ad.”
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With all the controversy the McCain campaign is trying to raise about Obama's small donations, perhaps they should make sure their own fundraising house is in order. As the Chicago Tribune reports:
Big campaign donors typically come with deep pockets and influence. But in Illinois this election cycle, no one who isn't himself running for office has given more to the nation's federal campaigns than Shi Sheng Hao of Roselle, Ill., a virtual unknown in business and political circles.
Before September 2007, Hao's name had never appeared in the 15-year-old federal database of campaign contributors. Since then, however, his donations have topped $120,000 -- including $70,100 on a single June day to Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
and:
The story of Hao -- whose varied roster of business associates appears to include a Taiwanese government investment arm as well as the mastermind of a decade-old Democratic fundraising scandal -- is an eyebrow-raiser in the current election climate.
An RNC spokesperson wouldn't respond to questions because he alleged the Tribune was biased against McCain.
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Is Romney already looking ahead to 2012?
"Republicans are nothing if not predictable," said Jowers, who is now head of Utah Lawyers for McCain. "Republicans have nominated the second-place finisher in every election since 1976, with the exception of our current president."
Jowers said Palin has not "distinguished herself as a competent vice presidential candidate, and that is going to be a heavy anchor to drag into 2012."
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Speaking of competence, I can't wait to hear Palin's speech on energy policy today, especially after she told the Wall Street Journal that she feels the need to really speak in-depth on this topic:
"Energy policy, transformation of government and helping our children with special needs, those things that we have 15 minutes to talk about in a rally. It is important to talk about them in, in a manner with much substance."
She's right - you can't really get into a substantive discussion of energy policy in 15 minutes. You need more time to really lay out the specifics and present your detailed policies. Oh, did I mention that Palin's big speech on energy policy tomorrow is scheduled to last for 25 minutes?
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Obama will be campaigning in Iowa this week:
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama plans to campaign in Iowa Friday, ending more than two months away from the Midwestern swing state, campaign aides said.
I found that rather interesting. I guess it can't hurt to let Iowa know he isn't taking their votes for granted, but it would seem he has a pretty solid lock on Iowa right now.
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David Harsanyi has an interesting column in the Denver Post examining why we get so overheated about campaign finance:
Politics wasn't invented to be clean, positive and reassuring. It was invented so that one group could beat the holy hell out of another. To do that, they need money. Lots of it.
He cites numbers that say $1.5 billion will be spent on the Presidential election by the time its all said and done, but then asks, so what? Americans spend $4 billion a year on pornography, so why not politics?
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The Joplin Globe (MO) endorses Barack Obama:
Obama’s ability to transcend generational, racial and partisan divisions, his thoughtful approach to weighty issues and message of bipartisanship resonate with many Americans. There are some who see him as simply a gifted speaker, but his words inspire. We believe that Obama can make those words a reality — making “change” more than just a campaign slogan, but a launching point for a brighter future for all Americans.
Obama is also endorsed by the Towanda Daily Review (PA).
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So what's on your mind this morning? I'm looking forward to watching Obama's ad tonight - I assume it will be on his website eventually - but I am a teensy bit nervous about how it is going to go over. Although, one thing I've learned over the past two years is that Obama and his campaign certainly know what they are doing. Your thoughts on the ad or the new anti-Obama DVD mailer?
*all emphasis in this diary is mine