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There is a surge of voters for Obama in Wake County, NC (Raleigh). Bush won Wake County in 2004 by 2 points.  A new poll has Obama leading Wake County by 57-40.

From Public Policy Polling:

Wake County fueling possible blue transformation

If North Carolina is going to turn blue this year, major shifts in the Wake County political landscape since 2004 will be a primary driver in making it happen.

Four years ago George W. Bush won the county by two points. Now Barack Obama has a commanding 57-40 lead there. There's no doubt that in migration and new voters are a huge factor in this movement. Among people voting for President in Wake County for the first time he has a 72-26 lead. He's up by a remarkable 61-28 margin with independents in the county, and has banked a 70-29 lead with folks who have already voted.

We predict that there could be a shift of up to 80-90,000 votes in Wake County relative to 2004, which would make up about 20% of John Kerry's statewide gap relative to George W. Bush right there.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

The Obama Effect is also having a positive impact for down-ballot Democrats, from Kay Hagan to Bev Perdue to even County Commission races.

NC is going BLUE this year.

Originally posted to bear83 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:52 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Don't it make my Tarheel Blue... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    publicv, Actuary4Change, BellaNJ

    "The president was writing checks to the Georgians without knowing what he had in the bank," said a senior administration official.

    by perro amarillo on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:54:07 AM PDT

  •  Good Morning. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    busrider, BellaNJ

    I'm from NC too.  I am so pleased with the voter turnout and visual representation.  

    42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot. A Wrightism

    by publicv on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:55:28 AM PDT

  •  wake co is the raleigh area right? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BellaNJ

    John McCain -- Putting the "ick" back in Maverick!!!!

    by fhamme on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:56:53 AM PDT

    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fhamme, BellaNJ

      Raleigh, Cary, etc

      •  I get my counties mixed up -- any word on (0+ / 0-)

        Guilford Co -- Greensboro, Winston, High Point?

        John McCain -- Putting the "ick" back in Maverick!!!!

        by fhamme on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:59:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Durham & Greensboro looking very good (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, fhamme

          At least from Obama volunteers they are feeling VERY VERY good about THE TRIANGLE and GREENSBORO area turnout.

          •  Durham County (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            raboof, bear83

            Durham is one of the most pro-Obama counties in the entire country.  It voted 75% Obama in the Democratic primary. It is also the Bluest County in the South.  Democrats make up about 60% of registered voters; there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans.

            The important thing in Durham is not a good turnout or a Democratic majority. The important thing in Durham is huge turnout and a Democratic tsunami, because Durham is one of about a dozen of Durham's 100 counties that must carry the state for any Democratic candidate.  It is our votes that offset the votes in the many red rural counties.

            On that point, Durham is looking pretty good so far, but we have to be careful not to become complacent because we see so many Democrats turning out to vote.  We always have many Democrats turning out to vote. We need to get out many, many, many Democrats to help carry the state.

            •  Big Turnout in Durham (0+ / 0-)

              Durham County voters have cast 64,908 votes so far during early voting, 34.2% turnout already with 4 days to go.  At that pace, Durham could see a 45 - 50% turnout during early voting alone.

              http://www.durhamcountync.gov/...

              •  Percent Turnout (0+ / 0-)

                What are you using for the denominator?  The most recent registration figure I found on the Durham BOE website is dated October 1. The registration deadline for Election Day voting was October 10. And of course people have been registering every day of early voting.

                •  NCBOE has a County Level Update (0+ / 0-)

                  as of 10/25 - the Durham total is 190,917.

                  http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...

                  •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bear83

                    I had seen this figure posted earlier, but did not know the source. I am inclined to go the Durham website for Durham statistics, and didn't think to check the NCBOE website.

                    So, we will need to get over 95,000 voted to reach 50% in early voting. That's possible if the turnout on Friday and Saturday is similar to what it was in 2004. But that was the first presidential election with early voting, and I think a lot of people didn't find out about it until it had already started. This year, we may see a more steady pace throughout the voting period. In that case, we'll probably wind up somewhere between 85,000-90,000, which is decidedly not shabby!

        •  Guilford (0+ / 0-)

          is Greensboro and High Point.

          Winston Salem is in Forsyth County

          "You're going to be on all the TV? Are you going to interrupt my TV?" -Malia Obama to her father as quoted by her mother

          by waitingforvizzini on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:23:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And to your question (0+ / 0-)

          it looks good to me on the ground here in Greensboro

          "You're going to be on all the TV? Are you going to interrupt my TV?" -Malia Obama to her father as quoted by her mother

          by waitingforvizzini on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:25:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Correct. Triangle DEEP blue this year (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raboof, bear83, fhamme, BellaNJ
      •  That's good (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83

        but the Triangle was going to go blue anyway. It's the rest of the state that will make the difference.

        •  Deeper blue=bigger margin to offset rest of state (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          raboof, bear83

          1/3 of the population resides in the TRIANGLE and college-educated vote in higher percentages than low-info voters.

          Obama won primary by racking up HUGE and I mean HUGE margins in TRIANGLE and surrounding blocks, Greensboro went for him by 40 points. Durham and Raleigh were also huge margins.

          He needs MASSIVE Triangle turnout which IS happening, state-wide 26% AA vote and 17% Millenials to carry NC.

          I do think he'll outperform expectations in Fort Bragg and Charlotte. Asheville will come in strong for him so he has other pockets of support but the margin he takes out of TRIANGLE is desperately needed to offset the Dixiecrats who live in red areas.

  •  also food for thought..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, BellaNJ

    do you actually think all of those republican ballots are going to John S. McCain?  Doubtful.

    Republicans are not a national party anymore. Read My Lips: One Spouse, One House.

    by jalapeno on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:57:36 AM PDT

  •  It wasn't that long ago (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    that the wingers were all crowing about how the northeastern states were losing population and the southern states were gaining, therefore they predicted that their electoral advantage would increase after the next census.

    Oops.

    Of course, what they failed to factor in was the effect that this movement from the north would have on the southern states.  Wake County is home of Cary, aka "Collecting Area for Relocated Yankees."  I know two people who are moving to the Triangle area next year.  And that'll be two more Dem votes for North Carolina.

    And we're happy to keep on sending 'em!  It's pretty crowded up here.

  •  Greensboro/High Point/Winston Salem? Charlotte? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raboof, bear83

    Durham (Duke, Chapel Hill) would be strong for BHO no matter what. Cary is all Yankees. Getting Raleigh the sate capitol is huge.

    What about points west - the Triad and Charlotte?

  •  My inlaws are country club Repubs from Raleigh... (6+ / 0-)

    We visit them once a year...the are totally insulated. The church they attend, the friends they know, the places they eat are all Republicans. When we eat at their country club, people bring their kids dressed like muffy and buffy. My inlaws were also Jesse Helms fans and believe Liddy Dole hangs the moon. If Obama wins Wake County and North Carolina, these people are going to have diaharrea for days.

    "Damn it, baby, you've got to be kind"__Kurt Vonnegut

    by Texasblue on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:05:27 AM PDT

  •  very good news (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NC Dem, bear83

    makes me proud(er) to be from NC

  •  OK, it is quiz time... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    khyber900, Chun Yang, bear83, scamperdo

      When was the last time Wake County voted for a Democrat for President in the general election?
    I know that Bush won in 2000 and 2004. I know that Dole won over Clinton in 1996. Even Gerald Ford beat Jimmy Carter in 1976. I'll research some more and see if I can confirm if Johnson beat Goldwater in 1964. No other dates look plausible.
      For now I'm headed out to the Cary HQ's to make some calls for Obama. It's too close now. Got to make these last 500 calls.

    The human race is truly the highest species on earth. No other species can procreate with the female on top.

    by NC Dem on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:08:26 AM PDT

    •  Precisely. This margin (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      isn't indicative of Obama still having ground to make up with respect to the 2004 result.  This is indicative of Obama being in the lead in North Carolina and McCain having to find the votes to match him.  Both sides have enough votes to win the state.  The issue is turnout and late deciders.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:20:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The answer to my quiz above... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chun Yang, bear83

        Clinton beat Bush I in 1992, Johnson beat Goldwater in 1964. Kennedy beat Nixon in 1960. Wake County has had close elections every election. If Obama pulls Wake County by the margin shown in the PPP poll, he will pull 360+ in the electoral college.

      The human race is truly the highest species on earth. No other species can procreate with the female on top.

      by NC Dem on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:29:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Voted in Wake Co Sunday (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chun Yang, bear83, scamperdo, busrider

    Probably 200 people in line but it only took 40 minutes -- very well organized. Just guessing by the makeup of the line (age, race, gender, general attitude) the overwhelming majority were likely Obama supporters. Early voting is great, and at least here in Wake, extremely well-managed.

  •  Public polling indicates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, busrider

    that Obama made up the Kerry-Bush gap by early October.  A lot of that had to do with dissatisfaction with the Bush years and McCain's uninspiring campaign.  

    Everyone admits that each side theoretically has enough votes to win the state depending on turnout and late breaking voters.

    This news from PPP indicates that Obama has built a substantial margin in the Raleigh area, which represents a major challenge for McCain to overcome.  Charlotte is also likely to be pro-Obama.  If Obama is piling up large margins in the cities, the large black vote in rural NC is likely to put a limit on McCain's ability to reach Bush numbers or Bush margins. That's a good sign for an Obama victory on Tuesday.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:18:34 AM PDT

    •  Ex-Tarheeler here, hoping (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chun Yang, bear83

      I haven't lived in the state in 29 years, but my parents lived there a long time & my late father was active in the Democratic Party of NC. So I feel some sense of connection and gratitude. It's not easy being a liberal or a progressive in NC. Does anybody remember Harvey Gantt? A heartbreaking election.

      Dove's Eye View An Arab-American woman sees signs of hope

      by leilasab on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:23:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  From polling I have seen... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chun Yang, bear83

        the Charlotte area will be much closer. Durham and Chapel Hill will probably lead the state. Greensboro will do well because of colleges and large AA %'s. I have seen however, that McCain is winning in High point and Winston-Salem. The far northwestern part of the state has a few mountain counties north of Asheville that haven't voted for a Democrat this century. Hell, they even voted for Hoover over FDR in 1932.

      The human race is truly the highest species on earth. No other species can procreate with the female on top.

      by NC Dem on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:24:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Deeper blue=bigger margin to offset rest of state (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chun Yang

        1/3 of the population resides in the TRIANGLE and college-educated vote in higher percentages than low-info voters.

        Obama won primary by racking up HUGE and I mean HUGE margins in TRIANGLE and surrounding blocks, Greensboro went for him by 40 points. Durham and Raleigh were also huge margins.

        He needs MASSIVE Triangle turnout which IS happening, state-wide 26% AA vote and 17% Millenials to carry NC.

        I do think he'll outperform expectations in Fort Bragg and Charlotte. Asheville will come in strong for him so he has other pockets of support but the margin he takes out of TRIANGLE is desperately needed to offset the Dixiecrats who live in red areas.

    •  Millenials are the tipping point... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chun Yang, bear83

      Obama needs youth vote to at least match their record 17% of electorate primary performance.

      Youth vote has been coming on strong the last fews days of early voting. Up from 10% to 12.3 as of yesterday so fingers crossed the kids so energized in May come out in even greater numbers November.

  •  Plus Obama's in Raleigh today... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jk, Vicky, bear83, scamperdo

    With Obama in Raleigh today, hopefully that will help with some of the early voting today and carry the momentum to Tuesday.

    I'm in Moore Co, which is pretty darn red - went 60% for Bush in '04, would bet anything that it's not nearly so close this year - early turnout here has been very high.

  •  RNC and McCain are not giving up yet. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    I've received at least three robocalls from them in the last few days.  They are out canvassing in my neighborhood -- and I live in very, very blue Durham County.   The GOP wants to keep NC red b/c they know a loss here would be a huge blow to GOP psyche.   If we stay focused and keep canvassing, we will win here, but we must stay focused and sign-up to volunteer if you haven't already.  Get back to work folks!!   It won't be long now... It's time to bring this one home!!

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