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Usually the heaviest polling day of the week, Wednesday does not disappoint this week. Despite yet again a dearth of national polls, we do have 59 individual polls to look at, in addition to our usual array of tracking polls and other assorted numerical goodness.

No time for big introductions--there are too many polls to list for that.

Follow me.

Here we have yet another day (hate to sound like a broken record) where the national tracking polls and the state polls are not moving in tandem. The national numbers continue to improve slightly for McCain, but not yet at the rate he needs to close the race down to even.

Today, he picks up a net of 0.4% from yesterday, down to an average Obama lead of 5.6%. While that is a significant dip from Obama's high over the weekend (when Obama led by an average lead of 8.4%), it also means that McCain will have to pick off a full point a day on average in order to secure the lead before election day.

McCain does win the day in terms of poll movement: four trackers cut into Obama's lead, two padded his lead, and one stayed stable.

The four polls which showed a narrowing Obama lead were Rasmussen (O+5 to O+3), Diageo/Hotline (O+8 to O+7), Research 2000 (O+7 to O+6), and IBD/TIPP (O+4 to O+3).

Meanwhile two pollsters moved marginally in the direction of Barack Obama. After three days showing Obama leading by seven, ABC/Washington Post edged him up a point. Zogby was the other pollster to move fractionally in Obama's direction (from O+4 to O+5).

Holding steady, both at +7, was Gallup. FWIW, the quasi-tracker from GWU/Battleground also held steady, with Obama up by 3.

In terms of national polls, it was an awfully quiet day. Ipsos was released late yesterday, and like the national trackers, it showed some tightening in the race. What once was an eight-point lead is now a five-point lead (50-45).

IPSOS: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 46%

ABC/WASHINGTON POST: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
GALLUP: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
DIAGEO/HOTLINE: Obama 49%, McCain 42%
RESEARCH 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
ZOGBY: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
RASMUSSEN: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 44%

A lot of data points here, so let's get to the list. Suffice it to say that the state polls still seem to be holding nicely for Obama

Looking at our momentum tracker, measured as this set of polls vs. the trend composite, we find that Obama has another solid day. Twenty states get new data today. Obama beats the spread in FIFTEEN of them, compared to McCain beating spread in five of them.

ALASKA--Rasmussen: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (McCain)
COLORADO #1--AP/GfK: Obama 50%, McCain 41%, Others 1% (Obama)
COLORADO #2--CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, Others 6%
DELAWARE--SurveyUSA: Obama 63%, McCain 33%, Others 2% (Obama)
FLORIDA #1--AP/GfK: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, Others 2% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
FLORIDA #3--CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, Others 3%
GEORGIA--CNN: McCain 50%, Obama 46%, Others 3% (McCain)
KANSAS--SurveyUSA: McCain 58%, Obama 37%, Others 3% (McCain)
MICHIGAN--Rasmussen: Obama 53%, McCain 43% (McCain)
MINNESOTA--Rasmussen: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (Obama)
MISSOURI--CNN: McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Others 5% (McCain)
NEVADA--AP/GfK: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #1--UNH: Obama 58%, McCain 33%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #2--AP/GfK: Obama 55%, McCain 37%, Others 2%
NEW MEXICO--Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (Obama)
NEW YORK--SurveyUSA: Obama 62%, McCain 33%, Others 2% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA--AP/GfK: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, Others 1% (Obama)
OHIO #1--AP/GfK: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, Others 1% (Obama)
OHIO #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
OHIO #3--Marist: Obama 48%, McCain 45%
PENNSYLVANIA #1--AP/GfK: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, Others 2% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Franklin & Marshall: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, Others 2%
PENNSYLVANIA #4--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, Others 1%
PENNSYLVANIA #5--Marist: Obama 55%, McCain 41%
UTAH--Mason Dixon: McCain 55%, Obama 32%, Others 4% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #1--Roanoke College: Obama 48%, McCain 39% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #2--AP/GfK: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, Others 1%
VIRGINIA #3--CNN: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, Others 5%
WASHINGTON #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 56%, McCain 39%, Others 3% (Obama)
WASHINGTON #2--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 54%, McCain 42%
WISCONSIN--Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, Others 3% (Obama)

Again, a bit short on the recap today. Apologies for the lack of analysis, but here is the basic dilemma: my home internet network is shot. Therefore, I have to knock out what I can at work, since I will not have internet access when I get home (ergo, my lack of comments lately).

AK-SEN--Rasmussen: Mark Begich (D) 52%, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 44%
CO-SEN--AP/GfK: Mark Udall (D) 48%, Bob Schaffer (R) 36%
DE-GOV--SurveyUSA: Jack Markell (D) 63%, Bill Lee (R) 33%
DE-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Joe Biden (D) 66%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 32%
IN-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 53%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 41%
IN-03--Winston (R): Rep. Mark Souder (R) 50%, Michael Montagano (D) 41%
KS-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 60%, Jim Slattery (D) 33%
KY-04--SurveyUSA: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 58%, Michael Kelley (D) 37%
MN-03--SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) 45%, Ashwin Madia (D) 44%, Others 8%
MN-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 43%, Al Franken (D) 39%, Dean Barkley (I) 14%
NC-GOV--AP/GfK: Beverly Perdue (D) 44%, Pat McCrory (R) 44%
NC-SEN--AP/GfK: Kay Hagan (D) 47%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 43%, Others 2%
NH-GOV #1--UNH: Gov. John Lynch (D) 71%, Joe Kenney (R) 15%
NH-GOV #2--AP/GfK: Gov. John Lynch (D) 73%, Joe Kenney (R) 17%
NH-SEN #1--UNH: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 36%
NH-SEN #2--AP/GfK: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 41%
NH-01--UNH: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 50%, Jeb Bradley (R) 37%
NH-02--UNH: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 51%, Jennifer Horn (R) 21%
PA-12--Dane (R): Rep. John Murtha (D) 46%, William Russell (R) 44%
UT-01--Mason Dixon: Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 54%, Morgan Bowen (D) 23%
UT-02--Mason Dixon: Reo. Jim Matheson (D) 57%, Bill Dew (R) 30%
UT-03--Mason Dixon: Jason Chaffetz (R) 57%, Bennion Spencer (D) 22%
VA-SEN #1--AP/GfK: Mark Warner (D) 58%, Jim Gilmore (R) 32%
VA-SEN #2--Roanoke: Mark Warner (D) 57%, Jim Gilmore (R) 22%
VT-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. Jim Douglas (R) 47%, Gaye Symington (D) 24%, Anthony Pollina (I) 23%
WA-GOV #1--SurveyUSA: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%
WA-GOV #2--Strategic Vision (R): Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

...And that closes the books on a very, very busy polling day. Again, apologies for the lack of updates to follow (or responses to any of your comments). My internet capabilities end the second I close my classroom, which will be in the next 10 minutes (my little ones are starting to get restless and want to go home).

As always, if you find out about new numbers, leave them in the comments.

Happy Wednesday, all...

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 04:15 PM PDT.


The Holy S&*t Poll For Today (10/29) Is....

36%46 votes
14%18 votes
1%2 votes
10%13 votes
12%15 votes
12%15 votes
9%12 votes
3%4 votes

| 125 votes | Vote | Results

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