There've been rumors over the past few days of a poll from last week showing Republican Jim Risch is vulnerable. I've finally gotten my hands on the poll.
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (pdf) 10/19-22. Likely voters. MoE ±4.4%
Risch (R) 45
LaRocco (D) 33
Independent candidate Rex Rammell nets 5 points and pro-life candidate Pro-Life 2.
They also polled the 1st district race:
Sali (R-Inc) 41
Minnick (D) 48
The poll comes after this ad run by Majority Action, hitting Risch for imposing a high sales tax, including groceries, while he was acting governor.
Notable in this poll, 81% of those surveyed think the country is on the wrong track including 72% of Republicans. (Full crosstabs available in this pdf.)
What reads most true to me in this poll, besides the consistency with current polls on the Sali/Minnick race, is the high unfavorability rating for Risch when respondents were asked to give the first association that came to mind when they heard his name. He got a 4% positive association, and a 16% negative, to LaRocco's 9% and 8%, respectively. While Risch's overall disapproval rating is relatively low, at 28, so is his favorability, at 41. He's always been an unpopular figure in the state, not as blatantly obnoxious as Bill Sali, but viewed as nasty and a bit oily.
And he is nasty. Remember this?
"Could you explain to me the tax shift?" asked the first boy in the class to raise his hand during the question and answer session.
"Yoooou're a Democrat," Risch retorted.
"No he's not," a girl in the back piped up.
"Only Democrats use that phrase, 'tax shift,'" Risch replied. "By the way, don't be afraid to ask questions of me," he said to the other students in the class. "They're not stupid questions like this one over here."
From my long history in Idaho, I know that Idahoans don't like Risch. They never have. He's just almost always been at the right place at the right time to get elected (except in 1988, when Boise attorney Mike Burkett won a huge upset victory over him to take away his state senate seat). Now that they've been reminded about his stint as governor, when he did all that regressive sales tax raising, that helps them to think about voting for someone else. If this poll is to be believed, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, Risch hasn't sealed the deal here.
If the DSCC is serious about getting to 60, or even maximizing beyond 60, it wouldn't hurt to throw a little coin Idaho's way. Given the incredibly cheap Idaho media market, a little coin is all that it takes.