Louisiana...
crickets...
crickets...
crickets...
According to the Netroots favorite pollster son, it's a state with at least a 12 point overall bias to McCain. McCain is the overwhelming favorite to win the state in virtually every poll.
But...(more crickets)
Is something brewing down in that thar "sportsmans paradise" that just might mean an upset is on the way? Is it possible that the pollsters are uniformly FOS (Full Of....something)?
But but but...wait just a "gawl darn minute" here, and don't hassle me about the accent, sure I live in Colorado now, but I came up in deep rural Georgia, and damn if I ain't a claimin' my drawl rights tonight, cuz my Louisiana bretheren is a doin' me proud! So if ya know's what's good fur what ails yuh, best follow me below the fold for a good ol' southern style ass whuppin' on them thar rethuglicans.
Yuh see, although I is just this side of a neanderthal (and mah wife just might put me on the othuh' side, but that's another story), down in them thar Georgia caves we do have computers these days and I have spent a lifetime a crunchin' data bits for a livin' (damn near 30 years now). And wouldn't ya know it, as soon as I saw early voter statistics a comin' out o' mah suthin cuzin's voting booths over thar in louisiana, I just know'd sumthin' wuz up!
Now here's the deal, according to the pollsters, Louisiana is a shoe in for McCain by double digit margins. But the thing is, if you look at that state's electorate on a purely statistical basis, well something just doesn't add up. You see, Louisiana is 31% African American. Now if that's the case then well, let's just do a little third grade math here, yeah I know that's beyond most pollsters's level, but indulge me for a moment.
Every stat that I've read or heard shows at least 92% support for Obama among African Americans. I'm not going to waste my time running down a link on that one, if common sense doesn't dictate that you stipulate at least that point, well, I'd say you are on the wrong blog (if not the wrong planet), let's just leave it at that shall we. So let's move on.
Let's take a look at current Louisiana voter registration statistics.
Total |
White |
AA |
Other |
2,919,936 |
1,903,000 |
891,424 |
125,512 |
100% |
65% |
31% |
4% |
Now here's the thing, according to early polling African Americans so far seem to be turning out a rate of 36%. If you ask me that's pretty darn impressive, but for the sake of argument let's just say that over the long term that number won't really hold up. I think I'm being generous here, but for argument's sake let's say that in the end 31% is about where we end up after all is said and done.
Fair enough, so let's just apply a little basic algebra here.
If X = AA Registered voters and AA's vote 92% for Obama, that's:
891,424 * .92 = 820,110 African American votes for Obama.
If Y = White Registered voters and Whites vote 30% for Obama that's:
1,903,000 * .30 = 570,900
If Z = Other (mostly hispanic and some asians as well) vote 60% for Obama that's:
125,512 * .60 = 75,307
Now I'm basing the 60% figure on hispanic voter which according to Zogby generally nationwide favors Obama by about 70%-21%. But there are hispanics and "others" at some percentage in there so I've knocked off a full 11 percentage points. OK, I know Zogby doesn't have the best record in the business, but I think it's reasonable to assume the 11% I'm knocking off should fairly cover any discrepancy even including Asians, pacific islanders, and whatever else have you. Frankly, I think I'm being damn generous.
As far as the 30% figure for white voters, well OK, I'm pullin' that outta the outhouse, but I'm guessing that there's at least a few o' my buddies down there who have learned to see through republican horse hockey by now. I mean, if we can't get 30% of 'em, well, kiss mah grits, hell, I've heard more than one of 'em say "I'm votin' for the n****r". That's gotta count for somethin'! OK, so once yer done pukin' let's get back down to it.
Anyhow, that comes to an overall total of 1,466,317 probable votes for Obama.
Now here's the thing. There are only 2,919,936 registered voters in the state of Louisiana if we divide that by 2, that comes to 1,459,968 or 6,349 votes less than what we can reasonably expect for Obama, well short of a majority...oops!
But so far AA turnout is way above expectations at 36%. Granting that will level out some, the numbers and the available evidence suggest to me that there is no reason to expect AA turnout to drop below overall AA registration percentage of 31%.
At the end of the day, it seems like it may well be reasonable to conclude that this state could actually go blue this year. Granted a couple of things need to fall into place, but the numbers suggest a genuine possiblity.
So I'm sendin' out a hardy rebel yell from one proud Georgia redneck to all my counterparts in the great state of Louisiana! Don't make a liar outta me, ok.
And for the rest, y'all come back now, y'hear?