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North Carolina now has had a record 1,690,195 in person early votes, as 210,925 more votes were cast Wednesday at 364 locations, besting the previous daily high of 195,003. The final 2004 total was 984,294. The final 2008 number should exceed 2 million. Early voting ends Saturday afternoon.

Blacks made up 24.24% of the Wednesday total, down from the 26.33% who voted early Tuesday. Both numbers exceed the 21.4% of registered voters who are Black. Already, 36.81% of Black registered voters in North Carolina have voted early, compared with 24.83% of Whites. 32.99% of registered Democrats have already voted, compared with 22.74% of registered Republicans.

104,165 Democrats voted Wednesday compared with 100,089 Tuesday, while 66,565 Republicans cast votes Wednesday up from the 59,148 of Tuesday.  51,134 Blacks voted Wednesday compared with 51,350 Tuesday.

For 2008, here is a breakdown by race of the first 14 days:
Black       28.95%
White       67.02%
Native Am    0.36%
Two Races    0.39%
Other*       3.28%

* includes Asian, blank field, undesignated, AND other. Hispanics who list themselves as undesignated or other or leave the race field blank are aggregated under "Other". Hispanics who also list Black or White appear in those categories

By party, the 2008 totals are

Cumulative 14-day
Unaffiliated 17.54%
Republican   26.83%
Libertarian   0.05%
Democratic   55.58%

49.38% of the early votes Tuesday were Democratic, down from the 51.45% of Tuesday.  The GOP total of 31.56% Tuesday was up from the 30.36% of Monday.

As the early voting period winds to a close, each day's total of NEW ballots cast begins to trend toward historical averages, but even for those days, Democrats continue to outperform.  One analysis:  The RATE of INCREASE in the TOTAL number of Democratic versus Republican ballots caste has slowed. For example, as of Tuesday, 448,324 more Democrats than Republicans had voted, and that total swelled to 485,924 as of Wednesday.  296,541 unaffiliated and 910 Libertarian voters had also cast ballots as of Wednesday.

In person early voters get several benfits over election day voters in North Carolina.  New voters can register at early voting sites but not on election day. Already registered voters reporting address changes within a county can get a regular ballot at early voting sites, but on election day may wind up with a more cumbersome provisional ballot.  

One sample site, Pullen Arts Center in Wake County (across from the NC State University campus) was featured in footage on NBC Nightly News Tuesday.  On Wednesday at that site, 1598 votes were cast, including 109 who registered on site, and about 150 more reported address changes within Wake County. It's not just the same people voting earlier.

The entire electorate in North Carolina breaks down:
Unaffiliated 22.26%
Republican   32.00%
Libertarian   0.05%
Democratic   45.69%

North Carolina registered over 862,000 new voters in 2008, and voter registration continues at early voting sites. From October 16-30, 101,421 new voters registered at early voting sites. 37.6% of whom are Black. By party affiliation, the new voters at early voting sites break down:
U 20.5%
R 25.1%
L  0.2%
D 54.16%

The 862,000 includes early voters registering 10/16 through 10/23, so you can not add the numbers as there is some overlap.  I'd say the new voter total this year is about 920,000 at this point.

As of Wednesday, the following percentage of each party's electorate has voted early:
Unaffiliated   21.38%
Republican     22.74%
Libertarian    27.53%
Democratic     32.99%

2004 totals for early voting:
Unaffiliated 15%
Republican   37%
Libertarian 0.5%
Democratic 48%

Here are the number of sites open each day:
Thursday and Friday: 364 in 100 counties
Saturday 11/1 337 sites in 100 counties

90 counties cut off at 1 pm November 1, the other 10 have closing hours the final day from 2 pm to as late as 5 pm.

TODAY'S TIDBIT
As of close of business Wednesday, Durham County already has 70,896 in person early votes cast, 63.5% of the total votes (early, mail-in, and election day) cast in 2004. Three days remain in early voting.  Kerry beat Bush in Durham in 2004 68% to 31%.

Since North Carolina captures party and race on its registration records, and posts early votes cast to the voter record each evening, stats can be run the next morning.

This data analysis above does NOT include stats on mail-in absentee ballots, only those cast in person.

Here are the mail-in gross totals of balots voted
Civilian:  148,074*
Military:    5,848**
Overseas:    2,817**

*includes military and overseas voters who were already registered. Deadline for ballot return 11/3.

**using Federal postcard absentee ballot application, Deadline for ballot return 11/4.

No racial breakdown is available for 2004 on the State Board of Elections files.

files used for data analysis
2008 ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx04xx2008_Stats.xls (updated daily)
2004 ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx02xx2004.zip
2008 http://sboe.state.nc.us (current registration)
October 29 party registration totals at
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/...
2008 new voters
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/...

Originally posted to dean4ever on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 03:46 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Question (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Yosef 52, Woody, Discipline28

    I wonder if Barr is a factor here, since the L vote has gone up so much.

    •  Barr (4+ / 0-)

      I suspect the Libertarians are voting for Barr! I have no conjecture beyond that.

    •  I posted this YESTERDAY (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, global citizen, bear83

      I posted this YESTERDAY in the N.C. vote diary:

      I'm in N.C. - doodling with some numbers. Admittedly seat-of-the-pants. Follow with me:

      Assumption - above published data is correct.

      Total turnout @ 65% (I know many are predicting higher, but I think Republican turnout might be a tad low, due to lack of enthusiasm)

      0.65(6222485) = 4043315 total voters

      Obama votes:

      Dems - 4043315(.4566)(.85) = 1569251
      Ind - 4043315(.2225)(.40) = 359855
      Rep - 4043315(.32)(.10) = 129386

      Total votes = 2058492 (51%)
      Total McCain votes = 1984823 (49%)

      If my theory of Republican turnout being a little low is correct, that could skew the dem/rep percentages a bit more Obama's favor. I also think I'm conservative (in Obama's favor) by saying only 40% of indies break for him.

      •  Statewide turnout (0+ / 0-)

        is already 30% with 3 days of early voting left. I think the overall turnout will end up at 70-75%. In heavily Democratic Durham County, turnout is already 37%.

        Your assumption of 40% Obama votes among Indys is probably low.  A poll released yesterday of Wake County had Obama leading among Indys 61-28. I don't expect that to hold statewide, but I would think he would do no worse than 50/50.

      •  I also just found this WRAL poll (0+ / 0-)

        The poll undersamples black voters by 1-2%, and oversamples Republicans by 4%. However, it has this interesting tidbit:

        http://www.wral.com/...

        Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveyed 800 likely voters statewide between last Wednesday and Friday and found Republican candidate John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama to be in a dead heat, 47 percent of voters favoring each.

        Independent voters could hold the key, Davis said, noting the poll shows Obama leads McCain by 53 to 43 percent among unaffiliated voters.

        Winning Indys by 10 will win NC for Obama.

  •  Barr on ballot.....but haven't seen any ads or (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Discipline28

    visibility.

  •  The postal ballots will.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, global citizen

    favour the GOP but the numbers still indicate a close result overall. Are students and young people generally voting in large numbers? It's great to see AAs voting their strength but young people need to get out and vote too.

  •  Young people have no excuses (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    They usually have time all throughtout the day to get to the polls and vote.

  •  question on unaffiliated (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, bear83

    any idea what % of 'unaff' are likely to vote Obama? I am and did, but i'm wondering that's being polled anywhere...if he gets only half the unaff, and 85% of the Dem vote, he'll win NC.

    •  There was a PPP poll released yesterday (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      of Wake County (Raleigh) voters that showed Obama leading among Independents 61-28.

      http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

      Four years ago George W. Bush won the county by two points. Now Barack Obama has a commanding 57-40 lead there. There's no doubt that in migration and new voters are a huge factor in this movement. Among people voting for President in Wake County for the first time he has a 72-26 lead. He's up by a remarkable 61-28 margin with independents in the county, and has banked a 70-29 lead with folks who have already voted.

      Now Raleigh Indys are not necessarily representative of Indys statewide, but that's a very good sign.

  •  Great work as before and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    ... great news as before. Good comments above as well.

    North Carolina can be proud of the early voting system. On the spot registration and address correction is very progressive.

    I'm dreading going to vote on Tuesday frankluy, this in modern and liberal NYC where we do NOT have early voting. I'm getting arthritis in my hips and if I have to stand in line for hours I just can't and won't.

    While NC was making progress with early voting system, we in New York spent 12 years under Republican governor and longer with a Republican State Senate blocking much progress. Of course, the Democrats in this state have some retrograde tendencies, too. If the Dems win control of the upper house of the Lege this year, the failings of some of our Democratic leaders will be exposed and it may not be so pretty.

    •  NC makes me proud (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      by having such progressive rules for voter registration and early voting.  We will probably end up with 40% statewide turnout by the end of early voting, and have added 130,000+ new registered voters during early voting.

      The NC Legislature does some kooky things, and blocks a lot of progressive things, but at least they got this right.  I hope early voting gets offered in more states going forward.

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