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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-16 results)

Senate

Stevens (R) 36 (46)
Begich (D) 58 (48)

House at-large district

Young (R) 44 (44)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (50)

The biggest tactical blunder of this election was Stevens pushing for a speedy trial. Had he not panicked post-indictment and held steady, campaigning at home, he may have pulled this off. The trends were definitely headed that direction. Instead, his conviction has made him dead man walking while giving the Democrats a boost in the House race as well. Wow, what drama! You can see the reason for the topline results in Stevens' favorability numbers:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens?

Favorable/Favorable:
Republicans: 65/34 (71/26)
Demcorats: 8/91 (15/81)
Independents: 37/62 (41/53)

That's a net 14-point swing among Republicans, 17 points among Democrats, and 13 points among Independents. Kind of hard to recover from that, no matter how hilariously pathetic Stevens' spin becomes:

With just four days before the election and Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens insisting he's not a felon, the U.S. Senate race is white hot.

"I've not been convicted yet," Stevens said Thursday in a meeting with the editorial board of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. "There's not a black mark by my name yet, until the appeal is over and I am finally convicted, if that happens. If that happens, of course I'll do what's right for Alaska and for the Senate. ... I don't anticipate it happening, and until it happens I do not have a black mark."

Stevens reiterated that position during a televised debate late Thursday night, declaring early in the give-and-take with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, "I have not been convicted of anything."

Meanwhile, Palin is no longer the nation's most popular governor. At least one -- Arizona's Janet Napolitano -- sports better numbers. Full crosstabs, as usual, below the fold.

On the web:
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue page

ALASKA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from October 28 through October
30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  289 (49%)
Women                311 (51%)

Democrats            134 (22%)
Republicans          183 (31%)
Independents/Other   283 (47%)

18-29                109 (18%)
30-44                207 (35%)
45-59                190 (32%)
60+                   94 (15%)

Anchorage            285 (48%)
Central/Other         97 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau     218 (36%)

U.S CONGRESS:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 22%         35%         23%         17%          3%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 57%         40%          3%

MEN                 54%         44%          2%
WOMEN               60%         36%          4%

DEMOCRATS           83%         15%          2%
REPUBLICANS         32%         61%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        61%         37%          2%

18-29               68%         30%          2%
30-44               53%         44%          3%
45-59               59%         39%          2%
60+                 48%         47%          5%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         30%         38%         22%          1%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 39%         60%          1%

MEN                 46%         53%          1%
WOMEN               32%         67%          1%

DEMOCRATS            8%         91%          1%
REPUBLICANS         65%         34%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        37%         62%          1%

18-29               30%         69%          1%
30-44               43%         55%          2%
45-59               38%         61%          1%
60+                 46%         53%          1%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat or Don Young the Republican?

                   BERKOWITZ   YOUNG       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         44%          3%

MEN                 49%         48%          3%
WOMEN               56%         41%          3%

DEMOCRATS           90%          7%          3%
REPUBLICANS         17%         80%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        59%         38%          3%

18-29               57%         38%          5%
30-44               52%         46%          2%
45-59               54%         43%          3%
60+                 49%         48%          3%

ANCHORAGE           54%         44%          2%
CENTRAL/OTHER       44%         49%          7%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    56%         41%          3%

U.S. SENATE:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 22%         35%         21%         13%          9%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 57%         34%          9%

MEN                 53%         39%          8%
WOMEN               61%         29%         10%

DEMOCRATS           86%         10%          4%
REPUBLICANS         32%         60%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        60%         29%         11%

18-29               63%         30%          7%
30-44               53%         37%         10%
45-59               61%         31%          8%
60+                 51%         39%         10%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         25%         34%         31%          1%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 34%         65%          1%

MEN                 35%         63%          2%
WOMEN               33%         67%         -

DEMOCRATS            8%         91%          1%
REPUBLICANS         63%         36%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        28%         71%          1%

18-29               25%         73%          2%
30-44               40%         59%          1%
45-59               28%         71%          1%
60+                 42%         57%          1%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Mark Begich the Democrat or Ted Stevens the Republican?

                   BEGICH      STEVENS     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 58%         36%          6%

MEN                 52%         43%          5%
WOMEN               64%         29%          7%

DEMOCRATS           91%          4%          5%
REPUBLICANS         22%         72%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        66%         27%          7%

18-29               66%         27%          7%
30-44               53%         40%          7%
45-59               60%         35%          5%
60+                 53%         42%          5%

ANCHORAGE           60%         34%          6%
CENTRAL/OTHER       49%         46%          5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    59%         35%          6%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 58%         39%          1%          2%

MEN                 62%         35%          1%          2%
WOMEN               54%         43%          1%          2%

DEMOCRATS           12%         86%          1%          1%
REPUBLICANS         90%          7%          1%          2%
OTHER               56%         40%          1%          3%

18-29               49%         49%          1%          1%
30-44               64%         32%          1%          3%
45-59               57%         41%          1%          1%
60+                 62%         35%          1%          2%

ANCHORAGE           58%         39%          1%          2%
CENTRAL/OTHER       61%         36%          1%          2%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    57%         41%          1%          1%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         46%         24%         11%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 65%         35%         -

MEN                 67%         33%         -
WOMEN               63%         37%         -

DEMOCRATS           31%         69%         -
REPUBLICANS         95%          5%         -
INDEPENDENTS        62%         38%         -

18-29               59%         41%         -
30-44               70%         30%         -
45-59               63%         37%         -
60+                 68%         32%         -


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sarah Palin is doing as Governor?

                   APPROVE     DISAPPROVE  NOT         SURE        

ALL                 61%         37%          2%

MEN                 63%         35%          2%
WOMEN               59%         39%          2%

DEMOCRATS           26%         73%          1%
REPUBLICANS         92%          6%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         41%          2%

18-29               55%         43%          2%
30-44               66%         32%          2%
45-59               59%         38%          3%
60+                 64%         35%          1%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:17 AM PDT.

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