Skip to main content

Yesterday, busloads of potentially indifferent students arrived at McCain's rally.  Joe was a no-show.  CNN stood in front of a riser of empty chairs.  Yet, CNN's polls show a tightening of numbers.

I've been a bit more generous to CNN than many.  Ultimately, I don't see them as being so much Obama-hostile as I see them being overtly opportunistic.  A close race means better viewing numbers, in their eyes.  And they're doing everything they can to make it happen -- including massaging the statistics.

Our own eyes and perception don't match CNN's wishes.  While CNN shows a tightening of national statistics, state polls show a continued gap in swing states.  The political futures markets like Intrade continue to show individuals favoring Obama with an 85 percent chance of a win.

And more importantly, Matt Hoffman at Political Simulation is currently showing Obama at a 99 percent chance of a win.  In fact, Hoffman is showing Obama with a better chance of taking 400 electoral votes than McCain has of winning the election.

Granted, this isn't new, and the numbers are actually down from previous days, where Obama had almost twice the chance of a 400+ electoral vote blowout.  In any case, Hoffman's research into using a cumulative distribution function on Intrade statistics is illuminating.

For reasons beyond Hoffman's, I have reason to believe that there may other factors playing into a possible 400+ electoral vote blowout.  One of my main arguments is the quality of voters voting for Obama.  Self-selection is a major factor in any type of economic analysis.  Take Joe the no-show for example. . .

Let's not let up the pressure.  Let's keep working as though we're the underdogs.  However, let's keep hoping for what our eyes and senses tell us is true.  Seeing is believing.  Being told is so last (eight) year.

Originally posted to fedhallofshame com on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:34 AM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site