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Yesterday, busloads of potentially indifferent students arrived at McCain's rally.  Joe was a no-show.  CNN stood in front of a riser of empty chairs.  Yet, CNN's polls show a tightening of numbers.

I've been a bit more generous to CNN than many.  Ultimately, I don't see them as being so much Obama-hostile as I see them being overtly opportunistic.  A close race means better viewing numbers, in their eyes.  And they're doing everything they can to make it happen -- including massaging the statistics.

Our own eyes and perception don't match CNN's wishes.  While CNN shows a tightening of national statistics, state polls show a continued gap in swing states.  The political futures markets like Intrade continue to show individuals favoring Obama with an 85 percent chance of a win.

And more importantly, Matt Hoffman at Political Simulation is currently showing Obama at a 99 percent chance of a win.  In fact, Hoffman is showing Obama with a better chance of taking 400 electoral votes than McCain has of winning the election.

Granted, this isn't new, and the numbers are actually down from previous days, where Obama had almost twice the chance of a 400+ electoral vote blowout.  In any case, Hoffman's research into using a cumulative distribution function on Intrade statistics is illuminating.

For reasons beyond Hoffman's, I have reason to believe that there may other factors playing into a possible 400+ electoral vote blowout.  One of my main arguments is the quality of voters voting for Obama.  Self-selection is a major factor in any type of economic analysis.  Take Joe the no-show for example. . .

Let's not let up the pressure.  Let's keep working as though we're the underdogs.  However, let's keep hoping for what our eyes and senses tell us is true.  Seeing is believing.  Being told is so last (eight) year.

Originally posted to fedhallofshame com on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:34 AM PDT.

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