This election has gone on so long that it's easy to forget how we got to this weekend in the good position we're in. Just to alleviate some of the handwringing, I wanted to revisit some of my favorite and most reassuring moments from the primaries.
And, as a California voter, I want to send out a big, big shout out to those of you in the battlegrounds waiting hours and hours and hours to vote for Barack early! We're thinking of and admiring those of you in that 6-8 hour line in Atlanta that they're showing on MSNBC!
I think the primaries have shown that Obama overperformed in a lot of states that he was leading in, most notably WI and NC. The narrative was somewhat the same: Clinton was closing right before the election day, and was somehow going to stem Obama's momentum and make a race of it. Hmm...this sounds a lot like the "tightening" narrative McCain is spinning, saying that he's "functionally tied" in the polls.
So what does the history of the primaries tell us?
- Wisconsin: Obama was in the midst of his ultimately decisive post-Super Tuesday romp to the nomination. But remember the weekend before the Wisconsin primary, when Hillary was supposedly closing the gap to the low single digits and was pushing the "Xerox-gate" story (that now seems like a somewhat quaint smear, huh?) on Sunday and Monday? The final RCP average showed this so-called "tightening"
RCP poll avg: Obama +4.3 (46.3 BO-42.0 HRC)
And what happened? Arguably the game-clincher, at least in terms of the real numbers of delegates, for Barack>
Final vote count: Obama +17.4 (58.1 BO-40.7 HRC)
- North Carolina: Again, HRC was supposed to close on a strong note and throw Barack's logically, statistically insurmountable lead into chaos, right? They put Bill in pickup truck in the rural areas of NC, and the HRC plan was to blowout Barack in Indiana and get very close in NC. The media narrative was that the polls were "tightening" and that HRC could win the perception battle, even if the overall delegate numbers were against here.
RCP poll avg: Obama +8.0 (50 BO-42 HRC)--OK, not so tight, actually...
So what happened? Barack kept us up until the wee hours in Indiana, waiting for the Gary vote to come in, and fell short by only about one %. And NC--it sealed the deal!
Final vote count: Obama +14.7 (56.2 BO-41.5 HRC)
In effect, I'm just trying to illustrate narratively (rather than statistically) how this idea of "tightening" has been pushed over and over again, and how Barack has overperformed, particularly in states he was ahead in the polls in the primaries (see Georgia, Virginia, Missouri, in particular). And even in those states that ended up with bigger HRC spreads that were seen as disappointing finishes for Obama in the primaries, like Ohio and Pennsylvania where the margins were just a slight bit higher than the polling (around -3.0 in margin in both cases), Barack still overperformed his poll share (+1.1 in OH; +2.0 in PA).
So if the statistical information from the likes of fivethirtyeight.com can't scientifically prove "tightening" is happening, there's a narrative and history this very year to suggest that pre-election day "tightening" is a lot of hype. Plus, it isn't helping McCain "tighten" when he can't get a message out in the final weekend and much of the McCain coverage has to do with the 60% disapproval rate of Palin, confirmed by old-school GOP operatives on national TV.
Here's to finishing strong, as Barack always does! Happy voting and happy Halloween!