Oh, boy...this was the day I wanted, and the day I was afraid of, all rolled into one.
Enough numbers to make even the most devout political junkie cry. Data all over the place, and all over the map. It is the Friday before Election Day, and someone went and opened the damned floodgates. I don't know whether to thank them, or kick 'em in the nuts.
Two new national polls, our seven daily trackers, and a total of...wait for it...105 separate individual polls. To give you some idea of how much numerical goodness I have today, I had to start typing this on TUESDAY...
Just kidding. Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
Two new national polls take the stage today, and they offer very similar numbers. And, for that matter, very familiar numbers as well: Obama at or just over 50%, with McCain in the low 40s.
AP/Yahoo comes back with their automated survey. You might recall that this is the poll that Drudge flogged mercilessly a few weeks ago when it showed a tossup (how were we to know that said flogging of outliers would become a regular feature for Drudge?).
Not so much on the toss-up anymore. Obama +8.
Marist College also releases new national numbers, and they have Obama leading by seven.
These national numbers are pretty much in line with the national daily tracking polls, which moved in Obama's direction for the second consecutive day.
Gallup was today's big mover, going from Obama +7 to Obama +9 in the Likely Voter II screen that I have come to use for these diaries. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Obama gained THREE points in both the Likely Voter I screen (to a record lead of 7 for Obama with that screen), and among Registered Voters (where he now leads by a nearly insurmountable eleven-point edge).
Three other polls moved in Obama's direction overnight. Research 2000 stopped a multi-day Obama skid, with Obama moving from +5 to +6. More importantly, the first single-day sample after the Obama 30-minute spot gave the Democrat an eight-point edge. Also, Diageo/Hotline moved back up a point for Obama, going from +6 to +7. Finally, ABC/Washington Post also moved Obama up a point, giving him his largest lead (O+9).
Two polls stayed stagnant today: Zogby (O+7), and IBD/TIPP (O+4). The only poll to go in McCain's direction today was Rasmussen, which went from Obama +5 to Obama +4.
Even the quasi-tracker finally moved. GWU/Battleground had been at Obama +3 for so long, I had begun to wonder if rigor mortis had set in. Alas, it finally moved. Obama now leads by FOUR points in the quasi-tracker.
NATIONAL POLLS (AND QUASI-TRACKERS)
AP/YAHOO: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
MARIST COLELGE: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
TRACKING POLLS
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
Just a flood of data today, but the general trend is similar to yesterday: the state polls actually have some data points that are favorable to McCain in terms of their direction. Of course, there are no shortage of data points that might cause heartburn over at McCain HQ.
It was that kind of a day. Even within the same state, there are polls released today that give either candidate an argument for hope, as well as polls that are a cause for despair.
One possible warning sign--while Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, he did lose three points overnight in the Muhlenberg tracker, a rarity in a tracker which tends to move a single point at a time, if at all. Strategic Vision also has it as a five-point race there, but they ARE a Republican pollster, so there may be a necessary grain of salt with that data point.
All in all, there are 27 states with new numbers today. Using our momentum tracker (this set of polls compared to the Pollster.com trend composite), we see no better than a draw for McCain today: he beats the spread today in 14 states, while Obama also beats the spread in 13 states.
ALASKA--Research 2000: McCain 58%, Obama 39%, Others 1% (McCain)
ARIZONA #1--Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, Others 3% (Obama)
ARIZONA #2--ARG: McCain 50%, Obama 46%
COLORADO #1--ARG: Obama 52%, McCain 45% (Obama)
COLORADO #2--PPP: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
FLORIDA--FL Chamber of Commerce: Obama 45%, McCain 41% (Obama)
GEORGIA #1--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 47% (McCain)
GEORGIA #2--Research 2000: McCain 47%, Obama 44%, Others 3%
INDIANA--SurveyUSA: Obama 47%, McCain 47%, Others 2% (Obama)
IOWA #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 55%, McCain 40% (Obama)
IOWA #2--Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 39%
KENTUCKY--Mason Dixon: McCain 51%, Obama 42% (Obama)
LOUISIANA--Loyola U: McCain 43%, Obama 40% (Obama)
MICHIGAN #1--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 54%, McCain 41% (McCain)
MICHIGAN #2--PPP: Obama 55%, McCain 42%
MICHIGAN #3--EPIC-MRA: Obama 50%, McCain 38%
MINNESOTA--PPP: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (Obama)
MISSISSIPPI--Research 2000: McCain 53%, Obama 40% (McCain)
MISSOURI #1--ARG: Obama 48%, McCain 48% (McCain)
MISSOURI #2--Insider Advantage: McCain 50%, Obama 47%
MONTANA #1--Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 44%, Others 3% (McCain)
MONTANA #2--ARG: McCain 49%, Obama 46%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #1--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, Others 1% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #2--ARG: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #3--Suffolk: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #4--UNH: Obama 54%, McCain 36%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #5--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 50%, McCain 41%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #6--Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #7--SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
NEW JERSEY #1--Fairleigh Dickinson: Obama 53%, McCain 35% (McCain)
NEW JERSEY #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%
NEW MEXICO--PPP: Obama 58%, McCain 41% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #1--Research 2000: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Others 3% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--Civitas: Obama 47%, McCain 46%
NORTH CAROLINA #3--Insider Advantage: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
NORTH CAROLINA #4--Elon: Obama 45%, McCain 38%
NORTH DAKOTA--Research 2000: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, Others 3% (McCain)
OHIO--Opinion Consultants: Obama 49%, McCain 45% (McCain)
OKLAHOMA--SurveyUSA: McCain 63%, Obama 34% (McCain)
OREGON--PPP: Obama 57%, McCain 42% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 49%, McCain 44% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 43%
SOUTH CAROLINA--SurveyUSA: McCain 52%, Obama 44% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--PPP: McCain 55%, Obama 42% (McCain)
WISCONSIN #1--Univ. of Wisconsin: Obama 54%, McCain 38% (Obama)
WISCONSIN #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 55%, McCain 39%
WYOMING--Research 2000: McCain 61%, Obama 36% (McCain)
(Whew!!!)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Not much time for commentary (this is taking forever...), but here are a few highlights:
- Two polls out of Minnesota contradict recent polling, showing Franken LEADING in the Senate race.
- A public poll and an internal poll paint wildly different pictures of the LA-Senate race.
- Two new polls confirm the peril that Liddy Dole finds herself in in North Carolina.
AK-SEN--Research 2000: Mark Begich (D) 58%, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 36%
AK-AL--Research 2000: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 53%, Rep. Don Young (R) 44%
CO-SEN #1--CNN: Mark Udall (D) 53%, Bob Schaffer (R) 43%
CO-SEN #2--PPP: Mark Udall (D) 56%, Bob Schaffer (R) 41%
CO-06--Zenmango (D): Mike Coffman (R) 45%, Hank Eng (D) 40%
GA-SEN #1--CNN: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
GA-SEN #2--Rasmussen: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 48%, Jim Martin (D) 43%
GA-SEN #3--Research 2000: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 47%, Jim Martin (D) 46%
IA-SEN #1--SurveyUSA: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) 61%, Chris Reed (R) 35%
IA-SEN #2--Research 2000: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) 57%, Chris Reed (R) 37%
IN-GOV--SurveyUSA: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 55%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 38%
IN-07--Research 2000: Andre Carson (D) 53%, Gabrielle Campo (R) 38%
KY-SEN #1--Garin Hart Yang (D): Sen. Mitch McConnell (D) 47%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 45%
KY-SEN #2--Mason Dixon: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 47%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 42%
LA-SEN #1--Loyola U: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 49%, John Kennedy (R) 34%
LA-SEN #2--On Point (R): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 45%, John Kennedy (R) 44%
MI-SEN #1--Strategic Vision: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 56%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 33%
MI-SEN #2--EPIC-MRA: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 54%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 36%
MI-SEN #3--PPP: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 58%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 36%
MN-SEN #1--PPP: Al Franken (D) 45%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 40%, Dean Barkley (I) 14%
MN-SEN #2--U of Minnesota: Al Franken (D) 41%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 37%, Dean Barkley (I) 17%
MS-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 51%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 44%
MT-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) 58%, Ray Brown (R) 40%
MT-AL--Research 2000: Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R) 55%, John Driscoll (D) 39%
NC-GOV #1--Civitas: Beverly Perdue (D) 45%, Pat McCrory (D) 43%
NC-GOV #2--Research 2000: Beverly Perdue (D) 49%, Pat McCrory (R) 44%
NC-GOV #3--Elon: Beverly Perdue (D) 40%, Pat McCrory (R) 40%
NC-SEN #1--CNN: Kay Hagan (D) 53%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 44%
NC-SEN #2--Civitas: Kay Hagan (D) 45%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 43%
NC-SEN #3--Research 2000: Kay Hagan (D) 50%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 45%
NC-SEN #4--Elon: Kay Hagan (D) 44%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 37
NH-GOV #1--ARG: Gov. John Lynch (D) 68%, Joe Kenney (R) 28%
NH-GOV #2--Suffolk: Gov. John Lynch (D) 67%, Joe Kenney (R) 15%
NH-GOV #3--UNH: Gov. John Lynch (D) 69%, Joe Kenney (R) 18%
NH-GOV #4--Strategic Vision: Gov. John Lynch (D) 67%, Joe Kenney (R) 24%
NH-GOV #5--SurveyUSA: Gov. John Lynch (D) 65%, Joe Kenney (R) 28%
NH-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 44%
NH-SEN #2--ARG: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 41%
NH-SEN #3--Suffolk: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 39%
NH-SEN #4--UNH: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 42%
NH-SEN #5--Strategic Vision: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 41%
NH-SEN #6--SurveyUSA: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%
NH-01--UNH: Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44%, Jeb Bradley (R) 41%
NH-02--UNH: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 54%, Jennifer Horn (R) 26%
NJ-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 52%, Dick Zimmer (R) 37%
NM-SEN--PPP: Tom Udall (D) 58%, Steve Pearce (R) 39%
NY-26--SurveyUSA: Chris Lee (R) 48%, Alice Kryzan (D) 34%
OK-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 56%, Andrew Rice (D) 36%
OR-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Jeff Merkley (D) 49%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 46%
OR-SEN #2--PPP: Jeff Merkley (D) 51%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 43%
SC-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) 58%, Bob Conley (R) 39%
VA-SEN--CNN: Mark Warner (D) 63%, Jim Gilmore (R) 35%
WA-04--Bainbridge (D): Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 52.5%, George Fearing (D) 47.5%
WV-GOV--PPP: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) 69%, Russ Weeks (R) 27%
WV-SEN--PPP: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 58%, Jay Wolfe (R) 40%
WY-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Mike Enzi (R) 62%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 35%
WY-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. John Barrasso (R) 60%, Nick Carter (D) 35%
WY-AL--Research 2000: Cynthia Lummis (R) 49%, Gary Trauner (D) 45%
And that...Thank God...does it. If you get new numbers this afternoon or evening, go ahead and put them into the comments.The weekend editions of FTP are at stake a bit, because the technician for my home internet maladies is not coming until TUESDAY (sigh). I'll do my best to find a computer....
Have a good weekend!!