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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)

Wicker (R) 51 (47)
Musgrove (D) 44 (46)

Already voted (16 percent of sample)

Wicker (R) 47
Musgrove (D) 53

Ouch. So what's going on? Wicker's support among white voters has gone from 72-24 two weeks ago, to 78-20, and Independents have flipped from 49-45 Musgrove to 49-47 Wicker. The early voting numbers are encouraging, but the gap among those who haven't voted -- 52-43 -- is huge. This one isn't out of reach, but it's likely Republican.

In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 53-40, though Obama leads 49-45 among early voters. It was 50-40 McCain two weeks ago.

On the web:
Ronnie Musgrove for Senate

The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  286 (49%)
Women                314 (51%)

Democrats            239 (40%)
Republicans          269 (45%)
Independents/Other    92 (15%)

18-29                107 (18%)
30-44                182 (31%)
45-59                195 (32%)
60+                  116 (19%)

White                374 (62%)
Black                220 (37%)
Other                6 (1%)

Delta/Jackson        225 (37%)
Northeast            160 (27%)
Southeast            215 (36%)

Voted                 95 (16%)
Not Voted            504 (84%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 16%         32%         33%         15%          4%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         48%          4%

MEN                 45%         52%          3%
WOMEN               51%         44%          5%

DEMOCRATS           74%         22%          4%
REPUBLICANS         25%         72%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         46%          7%

18-29               56%         39%          5%
30-44               51%         48%          1%
45-59               43%         52%          5%
60+                 42%         53%          5%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 18%         36%         30%         13%          3%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 54%         43%          3%

MEN                 57%         40%          3%
WOMEN               51%         46%          3%

DEMOCRATS           28%         69%          3%
REPUBLICANS         79%         17%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        51%         46%          3%

18-29               47%         50%          3%
30-44               53%         44%          3%
45-59               58%         39%          3%
60+                 58%         40%          2%

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?

                   WICKER      MUSGROVE    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         44%          5%

VOTED               47%         53%
NOT VOTED           52%         43%

MEN                 55%         42%          3%
WOMEN               47%         46%          7%

DEMOCRATS            8%         87%          5%
REPUBLICANS         90%          5%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         47%          4%

WHITE               78%         20%          2%
BLACK                5%         85%         10%

18-29               42%         52%          6%
30-44               54%         43%          3%
45-59               55%         41%          4%
60+                 54%         39%          7%

DELTA/JACKSON       42%         52%          6%
NORTHEAST           57%         38%          5%
SOUTHEAST           56%         40%          4%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         40%          3%          4%

VOTED               45%         49%          6%
NOT VOTED           55%         39%          2%

MEN                 56%         39%          3%          2%
WOMEN               50%         41%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           12%         80%          2%          6%
REPUBLICANS         90%          4%          3%          3%
OTHER               51%         41%          3%          5%

WHITE               81%         13%          4%          2%
BLACK                6%         87%         -            7%

18-29               45%         47%          3%          5%
30-44               57%         37%          4%          2%
45-59               53%         40%          3%          4%
60+                 57%         36%          2%          5%

DELTA/JACKSON       45%         48%          2%          5%
NORTHEAST           58%         35%          3%          4%
SOUTHEAST           58%         36%          3%          3%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:05 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Grrr … Gimme my supermajority!! n/t (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, sheridan, Aprognosticator

    Denny Crane: But if he supports a law, and then agrees to let it lapse … then that would make him …

    Shirley Schmidt: A Democrat.

    by Jyrinx on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:07:36 PM PDT

  •  I wasn't aware Miss... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rmx2630, OleMiss

    ..has early voting.

    John McCain=Culture war. Barack Obama=Culture peace.

    by wyvern on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:09:18 PM PDT

  •  I'm hoping that a lot of people (3+ / 0-)

    who haven't voted yet, and are planning on voting Republican, will be too demoralized to turn out.

    -5.38, -5.90 Deus mihi iustitiam dabit.

    by cjallen on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:09:38 PM PDT

  •  I don't know why (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, Rick Winrod

    Musgrove's negatives are so high, but part of this might have to do with the idea that Missippians would prefer not to have a 60-Democrat Senate.

    Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell's ass. - Barry Goldwater, 1981

    by Doug in SF on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:09:40 PM PDT

    •  You think a whole lot of them are thinking that? (5+ / 0-)

      Seems more likely to me they'd prefer to have jobs and health care, but the ones not voting Musgrove associate Democrats with Satan and gays and pressing one for English and stuff.

      Next January, Obama may gather all Democratic Senators together and ask whether they should have to close the Pascagoula shipyards due to tight money. The people of Mississippi might well want to have a voice at the table when that happens. Just saying.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:19:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The way to turn a region blue (3+ / 0-)

        is to aggressively promote quality universal education, and the development of non-defense and military-based high-tech economic development with a unionized labor force. No area that experiences this stays red for long. The correlation is massive.

        The deep south is going to have to be a longer-term red-to-blue project, probably 10-20 years. The good thing is that we don't need it to stay in the majority, and none of this is politically exploitative. It's one of those situations where what's good for the region is also good for the left. But then when has that, or vice-versa, not been the case? LBJ's big mistake (aside from the war) was to not include such development in the Great Society. Imagine where we'd be today if he had.

        To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

        by kovie on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:29:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I live in Memphis and... (4+ / 0-)

      ...his negatives may be high because of the fusillade of negative ads that the RNC has unleashed in MS in the last few weeks. We catch them here in Memphis because this tv market gets to the Repub-rich DeSoto County area.

      Absolutely devastating waves of ads, and I bet it has impacted the top-line numbers. The pushback from Musgrove has not been fast enough or very effective, in my judgment.

      But, yaneverknow...

      •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, OleMiss, membengal

        I live in Desoto county and I'm and Independent supporting (rabidly) Obama, but don't really have any party loyalties other than that.

        I know nothing of the senate candidates other than what I see on TV and Wicker is bombarding Musgrove with attack ads.  It's no wonder he's pulling away as Musgrove is doing little to fight back.

        The sheer volume of negative ads combined with almost zero positive ads about himself leads me to believe that Wicker doesn't have anything to offer other than an arguement against the other guy - which isn't good enough for me.  I don't know much about either candidate except for how one has choosen to run his campaign, and hence, will be voting for Musgrove.

    •  Don't know if it's like this elsewhere, but... (0+ / 0-)

      Democrats here get SLAMMED by negative mailouts and radio/TV advertising.  I've got 2 pieces Wednesday, 3 yesterday, and 2 this morning. In one commercial break on a radio station, the same negative ad played 3 times.  The only reason Musgrove is as competitive right now as he is is because of Chuck Schumer.  

      Female friend: "So, are YOU dating anyone?" Me: "No. I think the muscles scare them off." FF: "You need to date a Kennedy. Kennedys like muscles."

      by OleMiss on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:18:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  no no - i am supporting musgrove and (0+ / 0-)

      do not want to go into why his negatives are so high the weekend before the election.  They are deserved and come from a lot of democrats.  

      With that said, Musgrove has won two statewide races(lost one to the devil) and I doubt if he has ever polled ahead before any election.  progressives will hold their noses and vote for him, when it comes down to it.  plus, i doubt any one is doing a reliable poll of this state.  i think turnout will be record high and anything can happen.  musgroves opponent when he won the governors race in 1999 slacked off the last couple days because he was so far ahead in the polls and lost by a hair.

      Count this state out when the votes are counted.

  •  No counting chickens before hatching!!!!! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    88kathy, raincrow, Rick Winrod, sheridan

    We cannot afford to believe for a minute that we have alreday won 2008.

    "Terror is nothing other than justice...; it is ... the general principle of democracy applied to our country's most urgent needs." M. Robespierre

    by Bartimaeus Blue on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:10:17 PM PDT

  •  I sense a theme here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Obama continues to outpreform in early voting, state after state.

    Could it be the polls are wrong, but in the other direction?

  •  Obama destroys McCain's I know how to catch Osama (7+ / 0-)

    Situation room

    BLITZER: Senator McCain says he knows how to capture bin Laden and he says I'll get him if he is elected president.

    Do you know how to capture bin Laden?

    OBAMA: I am reminded – he said this during the debate and I think the next – that night maybe I think Jon Stewart on Comedy Central – you know, why have you been holding out for the last six years?

    I mean, the fact is is that along with George Bush, John McCain championed a strategy that distracted us from capturing for bin Laden, that focused on Iraq, that had nothing to do with 9/11. And so clearly Senator McCain doesn't know how to capture bin Laden because he was supportive of a huge strategic blunder when it came to accomplishing the task.

    I will focus on what Secretary Gates and others have indicated is our number one security threat and that is bin Laden and al Qaeda. We will go after him. We will kill him or we will capture him, try him, tie the death penalty to him where – as necessary.

    But that is the threat that we should have stayed focused on, that is the threat that I will focus on when I am president.

  •  I think we are starting to see... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, OleMiss, dotalbon

    the white voters getting off their collective asses after hearing reports of massive AA turnout and answering pollsters and going to the polls...JMHO...but we are witnessing the smear/whisper campaign in action...don't let the bl*** guy win...and if he wins make him have as many Republicans as possible to contend with in the Senate...

    Obama/Biden'08 Winning Change for America and the Democratic Party

    by dvogel001 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:13:50 PM PDT

  •  Remember (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OleMiss, Rick Winrod

    on the ballot that race appears without any party designation at all.

  •  This kind of thing (0+ / 0-)

    is probably what's accounted for in the national tracking but not the state tracking we pay attention to.  Some conservatives, rocked back on their heels, scrabbling for purchase.

    To realize originality one has to have the courage to be an amateur. -- Marianne Moore

    by Xochi on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:16:55 PM PDT

  •  + or - 4% It may be a trend it may be noise (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    reflectionsv37, dotalbon

    GOTV and keep on working hard.

    We'll know if this is real after the polls close.

    "It's the planet, stupid."

    by FishOutofWater on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:18:33 PM PDT

  •  OT, but check this whopper from Palin. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, dotalbon

    In a conservative radio interview that aired in Washington, D.C. Friday morning, Republican vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin said she fears her First Amendment rights may be threatened by "attacks" from reporters who suggest she is engaging in a negative campaign against Barack Obama.

    Palin told WMAL-AM that her criticism of Obama's associations, like those with 1960s radical Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should not be considered negative attacks. Rather, for reporters or columnists to suggest that it is going negative may constitute an attack that threatens a candidate's free speech rights under the Constitution, Palin said.

    "If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations," Palin told host Chris Plante, "then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media."

    Whoever can give this the due diligence can have it.  Unfortunately, I'm stuck at work and cannot give this the time it deserves.

    We have done the impossible, and that makes us mighty.

    by TheStormofWar on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:19:33 PM PDT

    •  Palin's understanding of the 1st Amendment = 0 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, LearningCurve, dotalbon

      The first amendment gives reporters the right to call her an idiot and to criticiZe her attacks on Obama.

      "It's the planet, stupid."

      by FishOutofWater on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:23:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not their right, it's their DUTY (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        reflectionsv37, raincrow

        although most of the media toesuckers don't understand that.  

        Electing a Republican is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

        by dotalbon on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:27:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How can she defend & protect the Constitution... (0+ / 0-)

        ...if she can't understand its basic principles?

        My sense is that she probably had a hard time with High School Civics, and that she may not be fundamentally teachable on the even the basics of the job of VP.

        We often lament the limitations of our elected officials, but Palin's inadequacies suggest how much we generally take for granted about their level of skills.

        The fact that the wingnuts are eager to line up behind this person suggests how clueless they are, as well, about the Constitution and the rule of law.

    •  No "right" not to be "attacked" by the press! (0+ / 0-)

      Gods, she is pathetic beyond belief. A SIXTH GRADER knows more about civics and the Constitution than this ridiculous, empty creature. The sounds that come from her mouth are the definitive definition of PRATTLE. If ever you wanted to know what PRATTLE sounds like, here you have it. What a disgrace.

      With apologies to Lerner and Lowe, her head is stuffed with cotton, hay, and rags.

      Or maybe elk hide, Saks receipts, and big-game tags.

  •  Governor Arnold In Ohio For McCain (4+ / 0-)

    They gave him some decent lines. Probably will be frequently played soundbites. Funny how they are going nuts in Ohio for him. I think we have started taken him for granted here in California. I don't think he has heard a crowd like that since the recall here in California.

  •  What are the chances... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    of these polls being freeped in some sort of way - To see wild swings in a short period of time doesn't give me much confidence in the pollsters or their methodology. Maybe there's no monkey business going on (especially in MS, where we're reaching to expect a win) but in some of these other states there's been closure in the gaps that make no sense.

  •  Off-topic but Schwarzenegger just lied @ OH rally (6+ / 0-)

    He said if Obama took the money he spent on TV ads he could pay for the bank bailout, and a few other things (I think he threw in the budget deficit there).

    Hey Arnold -- focusing on the bailout alone -- you'd have to add 4 zeros to that number. Nearly one trillion dollar in the bailout -- more than a trillion, if you throw in the deficit not the hundred million or so Obama's had for TV ads.

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

    by FischFry on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:26:27 PM PDT

  •  My new wish list: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    All Kerry states + OH, FL, VA, CO, NM, NV, IA, MO, IN, NC, ND, MT, WV, GA and AZ. Am I being too greedy? This is basically all strong Obama, lean obama, toss ups and lean mccain states per RCP.

    How much fun could this be and how blue that map would be. Please help us make it happen!

    I live in NYC and I am pro-America

    by Rebecca74 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:26:54 PM PDT

  •  After 8 years of bush (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    How any state could have brainwashed its ctitizens into voting for the American hating, freedom hating, republican party is beyond believe?  This must be fixed....

    We will never forget the crimes and atrocities committed by the Bush administration!

    by Freedom Loving American on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:31:34 PM PDT

  •  Forget about the deep south--for now (0+ / 0-)

    We don't need it to win or govern, and it's going to be a longer transformation there, tied to educational, economic and infrastructural development. With better schools, a high-tech union-based economy, and mass transit, it's going to be blue in 10-20 years. But they're clearly not ready yet to join the 21st century, still too fearful for their guns, god and teh gay to get it. Give 'em a bit more time, and some development.

    To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

    by kovie on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:34:30 PM PDT

    •  We need that 60th seat. (0+ / 0-)

      Imagine if we got 59; Lieberman would have a fields day.

      •  Wishing for it won't make it happen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        And you do realize that most people counting to 60 include Lieberman in the count, meaning that we'd really need 61 (including Sanders). Plus, there are defections with nearly every vote, so even 60 doesn't mean as much as people think. Every extra seat helps, of course, but a truly safe number is more like 63-65, and we're not getting there this year. But 57-59 gives us enough seats to allow a few defections and pick up a few votes from the other side. It's a nice round number, but it's not essential.

        To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

        by kovie on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:01:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Read Charlie Cook about the quest for 60 seats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        GOP's Horror Sequel Is Almost A Wrap

        Too much attention is placed on whether Democrats get to 60 seats, treating that number as if it were some arbitrary sign of control, a filibuster-proof Senate. However, this notion ignores the reality that filibusters are about specific issues, and whether there would be 60 votes to break a filibuster would depend on the issue. Is Connecticut's Joe Lieberman on board with Democrats, or not? It depends on the issue. The same could be asked of Nebraska's Ben Nelson and a half dozen or so returning Democratic moderates. What about some of the more moderate to conservative new Democrats coming in. Are they on board or not? What about the few remaining moderate to liberal Republican senators?

        •  I did read it (0+ / 0-)

          But I didn't really have to. Seemed kind of obvious to me. 60 sounds nice, but isn't really essential. 57-58 will do, and in some ways is even preferable, as it keeps Dems from getting too cocky and taking things for granted for '10. But if they play their cards right, they should exceed 60 in '10, which will also be target-rich.

          To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

          by kovie on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:32:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  What if Obama had advertized here? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rmx2630, OleMiss

    I can't help but wonder whether that could have been one of the things helping Musgrove's candidacy as well as Obama's chances, noting that has had MS leaning red but not firmly so.

  •  I don't mean to be flip but.. (0+ / 0-)

    Why don't we just give Republicans the South? They want to govern something, anything, so badly... and they're so willing to use every dirty trick in the book to get the job... too many folks in Southern states lap up the GOP Kool-aid with such glee, and are so slow and resistant to change -- they are a match made in heaven. Those people will vote Republican even as they are screwed over time and again by the very people they elect.

    Sorry for this rant, just voicing my frustration with the backwaters of America. Sometimes the South seems completely hopeless. We progressives and liberals can keep New England and the Pacific Coast, take back the Midwest and, of course, hold on to our decadent un-American big cities.

  •  As a native Mississippian, I'll give you a clue: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rmx2630, OleMiss

    Most residents are being bombarded with negative bulk mail advertising from the state Republican Party, Wicker for Senate campaign and "independent" out-of-state organizations such as the Associated Builders and Contractors

    We received flyer yesterday (I would share it with you, but it apparently found it's way into the trash) from the Wicker campaign reminding residents that Musgrove advocated changing the MS state flag.  It was presented as Musgrove, rather than concentrate on priorities such as the state budget, focused on "silly" things like the flag.

    I know many Kossacks won't understand how emotional the flag issue was/is, but the way the flyer presented it was absolutely dreadful.  The Republican Party waited 'til the last minute, leaving the Musgrove campaign little time to mount an effective response.


    I had come to an entirely erroneous conclusion which shows, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.

    by TheBigKahuna on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:23:19 PM PDT

    •  I got it too (0+ / 0-)

      I was hoping to scan it to show the community, but someone in my house threw it away.

      Female friend: "So, are YOU dating anyone?" Me: "No. I think the muscles scare them off." FF: "You need to date a Kennedy. Kennedys like muscles."

      by OleMiss on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:29:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Musgrove is no Democrat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    simca, dotcommodity

    A democratic majority or not, this man is not supportive of a woman's right to choose, is anti-LGBT rights and is a not a fan of the separation of church and state.  He is no democrat, he is no progressive.  My understanding of our goal is to elect small (d) democrats not republicans running as democrats. I am truly disappointed.

    I know I will be bashed and bullied, but I have fought too hard my entire life for my rights to even consider supporting any candidate that holds the views that Musgrove does.  A vote for him is a vote against women and your LGBT brothers and sisters.

    In August 2003, Musgrove sent an invitation via state letterhead to display judge Roy Moore's unconstitutional - as ruled by the U.S. Supreme Court - Ten Commandments monument in the Mississippi State Capitol for a week in September. In the letter, Musgrove praised the judge, calling the Ten Commandments "the basis for our legal tradition" and announced that he would call on other governors to display the monument in their state capitols as well. Musgrove further wrote, "It would be my honor to host this monument as a symbol of every Mississippian's dedication to the fundamental principles of the Ten Commandments." Even further, Musgrove invoked "our Christian heritage," condemned "groups like the ACLU," and said there is "no freedom from religion." He called the removal of the Ten Commandments from the Alabama Supreme Court building a "tragedy".[9]

    "In 2001, Musgrove signed legislation requiring the motto "In God We Trust" to be displayed in every public school classroom, as well as the school auditoriums and cafeterias, throughout the state."[10][11]

    2000, Musgrove signed a bill into law banning same sex couples from adopting children, making Mississippi only the third state having done so. The law also says that Mississippi will not recognize adoptions from other states by same sex couples.[12][13]

    Despite being a Democrat, Musgrove is pro life, and as Governor signed a bill banning the public funding of abortion.

    •  He's a step in the right direction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rmx2630, OleMiss

      compared to Wicker, no?

      •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        simca, dotcommodity

        What's the difference between Wicker and Musgrove, the R and the D?

      •  No, he's not. (0+ / 0-)

        He and Wicker are identical.  Actually, Musgrove might even be worse.  As a native-born Mississippian, I tell you Ronnie Musgrove is a piece of right-wing, corporatist dogshit.  Compared to Musgrove, Joe Lieberman is a loyal progressive Democrat.

        If I still lived in MS, my Senate vote would be "none of the above."

        To reiterate, NO, Musgrove is NOT a step in the right direction.  He's merely a step in the direction of making the Democratic Party as vile and hateful as the Repukelican Party.

        No one here should give a flying shit about which of the two sociopaths running for this seat wins.  Either way, Mississippi loses.

        McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

        by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:09:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You'll get no disagreement from me. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not particularly thrilled with Musgrove either.

      I consider him the lesser of two evils.

      I don't know why the MS Democratic Party won't field someone more in line with progressive thinking.

      I had come to an entirely erroneous conclusion which shows, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.

      by TheBigKahuna on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:40:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's because our "bench" isn't deep (0+ / 0-)

        We've only got 1 candidate holding statewide office.  Gene Taylor will never run for anything more than his congressional seat.  Thompson wouldn't stand a chance statewide.  That leaves Childers, but he's probably content where he is as well.  

        Female friend: "So, are YOU dating anyone?" Me: "No. I think the muscles scare them off." FF: "You need to date a Kennedy. Kennedys like muscles."

        by OleMiss on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:31:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Because such a Democrat is probably (0+ / 0-)

        unelectable there. Did it not occur to you that MS is probably a very conservative state and that a "progressive" Democrat--or at least the one that people want to run there--would probably be lucky to get 40% of the vote!

    •  4 years ago (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I pledeged to NEVER support or vote for any candidate that did not support me and/or my family.  It is ridiculous to support the 'lesser of two evils' just to have a psuedo-dem in congress.  All candidates should be held to the platform of the Democratic Party.

      •  Then don't expect to have any Democrats elected (0+ / 0-)

        in red states. And frankly, if we had it your way, there would be only 35 Democrats in the Senate, 150 in the House, and ten in various Governors' mansions.

      •  Musgrove is a 50% guy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        he will help 50% and backstab you 50% and you never know which is which.  i got to vote for him anyway because Wicker is so damn bad and the mississippi democratic party desperately needs to win a state wide race.

        This is not about musgrove.  your problems with him do not even touch the real issues with him.  i have given his prior campaigns thousands of dollars, worked many hours, been his guest at the governor's Mansion, been invited to go hunting with him, spoke to him many times and received christmas cards from him.  With that said I trust you to tell me the truth more than i do him.

        But what am I to do now, the elections in 4 days and the only other candidate in the race is Wicker, whom i trust to f##k me 100% of the time.

    •  Fact: Mississippi is not ready for gay rights (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Roger Wicker does not support gay civil rights.  Ronnie Musgrove does not support gay civil rights.  Nobody who wants to win an election in Mississippi can support gay civil rights.  Maybe someday - but not now.

      However Roger Wicker is a co-sponsor of Senate bill 311 - the Life at Conception Act.  This is a bill to implement equal protection under the 14th amendment to the Constitution for the right of life of each born and preborn human person.  In other words, he wants to make all abortions murder.   Wicker is a far right radical Repuglican.  Ronnie Musgrove is a conservative Democrat.

      That's the difference.

      •  Thank you n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Female friend: "So, are YOU dating anyone?" Me: "No. I think the muscles scare them off." FF: "You need to date a Kennedy. Kennedys like muscles."

        by OleMiss on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:11:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        While Musgrove may support the Democratic Party 40-60% of the time, Wicker will support the Democratic Party 0-20% of the time, if at all. I'd rather have someone support my agenda 40% of the time than someone supporting it only 10% of the time. But that poster is probably the type would rather have someone support none of his issues because he can't accept the imperfect candidate who supports only some of issues.

        •  Musgrove will support the Dem position 0 to 20% (0+ / 0-)

          of the time, the same or possibly even less than the percentage I'd expect from Wicker.

          I've lived in MS, and I know who Musgrove is.  I would vote for the devil before I'd vote for him.

          McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

          by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:13:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then don't complain about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Wicker then. If you want to be a purity troll, fine; but don't complain when Wicker does horrible things. At the very least Musgrove would vote for the party's leadership. Wicker wouldn't.

            •  I wouldn't bet on him even supporting leadership (0+ / 0-)


              You think Lieberman is a disloyal asshole?  Lieberman will look like Paul Wellstone compared to Ronnie Musgrove.  Don't believe me?  If he gets elected, three months later you will!

              McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

              by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:35:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Wrong. There's no difference (0+ / 0-)

        Any hate law that Wicker supports, you can bet your bottom dollar Musgrove will support too.

        McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

        by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:11:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  A San Francisco-style Democrat isn't going to win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rmx2630, deedogg

      in Mississippi. The type of Democrat better suited for NYC and SF isn't going to win there. Mississippi is a conservative state, not one where the electorate supports the agenda that you support. I wish that it were different, but MS isn't receptive to more "progressive" politics on social issues.

      •  oceanstar, I have to ask: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Are you a state resident?

        I had come to an entirely erroneous conclusion which shows, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.

        by TheBigKahuna on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:38:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He/she isn't. (0+ / 0-)

          Oceanstar 17 doesn't know shit about MS.  He/she is one of those people here who think we should support anyone, even a stone sociopath like Musgrove, just because of the D after his name.

          Nobody expects a diehard liberal to run and win in MS.  That doesn't mean we should support a right-wing, corporatist neocon running under the mantle of the Democratic Party.

          McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

          by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:16:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then who else is there who could have (0+ / 0-)

            run that race? Do you support Wicker? Do you want Wicker in that seat? But I forget: you're a martyrdom liberal, the type who would rather lose than win.

            •  No (0+ / 0-)

              It doesn't matter who wins in the MS race.  We're fucked either way so just forget about it and concentrate efforts in a race that DOES matter -- like GA or KY.

              McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

              by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:33:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Fair enough (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                I do think, though, that GA and KY are probably more realistic than MS at this point.

                •  Yes, I agree. (0+ / 0-)

                  And, unlike Musgrove, a senator Lunsford or a Senator Martin would be likely to work for meaningful change rather than to bolster the Republican theocrat know-nothings.

                  McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

                  by simca on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:11:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Change that (0+ / 0-)

                    Just spoke to a friend who grew up in KY and was told Lunsford is another Democrat in the Musgrove mold.  He made  avery convincing case.  That being the case, I don't care whether he or McConnell wins -- same difference.  I'd shift all support from the KY race to the GA race.

                    Fuck DINO's -- may they all rot.

                    McKinney/Clemente 2008: Parties that sell out the Constitution don't get my support or my vote.

                    by simca on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:59:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  I live in Mississippi and you are not helping (0+ / 0-)

            you left, i see by your signature line you are not supporting Barrack or the democratic party either.  Who or what agrees with you enough to get your support.  Based on what i am reading only you.  So run yourself.

            Damn, you made me defend Musgrove.  I got to go take a shower now.

        •  No (0+ / 0-)

          But I can reasonably state that a candidate aggressively supporting gay rights and abortion (admittedly gay rights is a deal killer, while abortion probably isn't) is a guaranteed loser in MS. MS is hardly a bastion of gay rights progressivism. If there are gay pride parades in MS, open gay marriage, parades with rainbow flags and pink triangles, let me know. But I doubt that you'd find much of that there.

          •  While I am loathe to disagree with factual (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            content in your post(s), I am somewhat little perturbed by your tone.  Agreed that MS isn't CA anymore than CA is KS.  But I believe you are selling the state short.

            I think it's a bit presumptuous of someone who doesn't live and/or work in the state to decide the what/when/where/how/who of its politics.  

            As someone who has gay family members, I can guarantee I am well aware of the official state government's stance (which, to a large extent, is a reflection of the population's stance) towards homosexual rights and other issues.  Having said that, however, I think it only fair to point out focusing on only one or two issues is no different than those single-issue voters on the right.

            There's far more at stake here than just gay rights.

            I had come to an entirely erroneous conclusion which shows, my dear Watson, how dangerous it always is to reason from insufficient data.

            by TheBigKahuna on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 05:34:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  I am not ready to give up on Musgrove yet, (0+ / 0-)

    I will admit that Wicker is slinging the mud with tons of negative ads but that turns off many people. Just yesterday, two of my white coworkers indicated to me that they would not vote for Wicker. Really surprising. I don't know if it had something to do with Obama's ad or not, but they are voting democratic this time. ( Of course we are real estate agents and the business is virtually nonexistent).

    Both of them told me (in separate conversations) that Wicker had become too negative in his advertising. One said, Wicker and the Republicians had become so "against" me.   (He is gay). In the past he voted repubician.

    But I digress. I really question the polls giving Wicker such a large lead. I can assure you that there will be a record number of blacks turning out to vote here in MS. That will help Musgrove; although as someone mentioned above, Wicker is advertising for those of us of color  to vote for him. But we will help Musgrove get that number 60 in the senate.  

  •  these numbers don't work for me. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    There are several important ways these numbers seem off.  If you assume Black voters will 90% go for Ronnie Musgrove (fair assumption) and accept this polls percentage of the Black proportion of the electorate (a more questionable assumption) then Ronnie's total should be 3-4 higher.  And I could see Ronnie getting 95%, which would put this at more like 5-6 points low.

    But I think this poll makes an overly optimistic assumption about the Black percentage in the polls-- I know Black turnout will be high, but this seems to suggest it will be considerably higher than White turnout.  Blacks run about 33% in the voting age population in Mississippi and this poll has 37% Black voters.  Unlikely.

    I also (as noted above) find 16% early voting even more incredible.  We only vote absentee before Tuesday in MS, and the criteria for voting absentee are pretty strict.  Georgia's very high early voting numbers were only running about 10% of total voters in the last 24 hrs, and in the county where I live in MS, the absentee number is more like 8% (which is still pretty high!).

    Bottom line-- that is, where do I think things stand given my problems with this poll? I'm not sure.  I'm going to do a diary about this I think.

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