Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)
Wicker (R) 51 (47)
Musgrove (D) 44 (46)
Already voted (16 percent of sample)
Wicker (R) 47
Musgrove (D) 53
Ouch. So what's going on? Wicker's support among white voters has gone from 72-24 two weeks ago, to 78-20, and Independents have flipped from 49-45 Musgrove to 49-47 Wicker. The early voting numbers are encouraging, but the gap among those who haven't voted -- 52-43 -- is huge. This one isn't out of reach, but it's likely Republican.
In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 53-40, though Obama leads 49-45 among early voters. It was 50-40 McCain two weeks ago.
On the web:
Ronnie Musgrove for Senate
MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 286 (49%)
Women 314 (51%)
Democrats 239 (40%)
Republicans 269 (45%)
Independents/Other 92 (15%)
18-29 107 (18%)
30-44 182 (31%)
45-59 195 (32%)
60+ 116 (19%)
White 374 (62%)
Black 220 (37%)
Other 6 (1%)
Delta/Jackson 225 (37%)
Northeast 160 (27%)
Southeast 215 (36%)
Voted 95 (16%)
Not Voted 504 (84%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 32% 33% 15% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 48% 4%
MEN 45% 52% 3%
WOMEN 51% 44% 5%
DEMOCRATS 74% 22% 4%
REPUBLICANS 25% 72% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 46% 7%
18-29 56% 39% 5%
30-44 51% 48% 1%
45-59 43% 52% 5%
60+ 42% 53% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 18% 36% 30% 13% 3%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 54% 43% 3%
MEN 57% 40% 3%
WOMEN 51% 46% 3%
DEMOCRATS 28% 69% 3%
REPUBLICANS 79% 17% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 46% 3%
18-29 47% 50% 3%
30-44 53% 44% 3%
45-59 58% 39% 3%
60+ 58% 40% 2%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?
WICKER MUSGROVE UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 44% 5%
VOTED 47% 53%
NOT VOTED 52% 43%
MEN 55% 42% 3%
WOMEN 47% 46% 7%
DEMOCRATS 8% 87% 5%
REPUBLICANS 90% 5% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 47% 4%
WHITE 78% 20% 2%
BLACK 5% 85% 10%
18-29 42% 52% 6%
30-44 54% 43% 3%
45-59 55% 41% 4%
60+ 54% 39% 7%
DELTA/JACKSON 42% 52% 6%
NORTHEAST 57% 38% 5%
SOUTHEAST 56% 40% 4%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 40% 3% 4%
VOTED 45% 49% 6%
NOT VOTED 55% 39% 2%
MEN 56% 39% 3% 2%
WOMEN 50% 41% 3% 6%
DEMOCRATS 12% 80% 2% 6%
REPUBLICANS 90% 4% 3% 3%
OTHER 51% 41% 3% 5%
WHITE 81% 13% 4% 2%
BLACK 6% 87% - 7%
18-29 45% 47% 3% 5%
30-44 57% 37% 4% 2%
45-59 53% 40% 3% 4%
60+ 57% 36% 2% 5%
DELTA/JACKSON 45% 48% 2% 5%
NORTHEAST 58% 35% 3% 4%
SOUTHEAST 58% 36% 3% 3%