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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Kirk (R) 44
Seals (D) 38

O2B candidate Dan Seals is back for a rematch after coming up short by 53-47 in 2006. IL-10 is the fourth most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire nation, one that Kerry won in 53-47. And given it's in Obama-crazy Illinois, a great opportunity for a pickup.

This is a heavily Jewish district, just north of Chicago on the lakefront. Given that the poll was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, when many observant (and Democratic-leaning) Jews wouldn't pick up the phone, the numbers may be even better for Seals.

Regardless, these are fantastic numbers for Seals. Kirk is well under the magical 50 percent mark, while the Democrats and Independents have more undecideds than Republicans. Kirk's favorability numbers among Independents (42-42) suggests further gains among that demographic are possible, while those among Democrats (32-55) suggests that Kirk's historically high popularity among Democrats is finally starting to fade. And Democrats (60-15) and Independents (41-27) sure do like Seals.

To win, Seals must further erode Kirk's support among Independents and even Democrats (currently at 12 percent), while getting his name ID up with his district's electorate (29 percent don't know him, including 32 percent of Independents). We can help finance his efforts to get the word out and educate the district about the Seals agenda. Given an educated choice, Kirk doesn't stand a chance.

So throw Republican Mark Kirk an anvil.

Crosstabs beneath the fold.

IL-10 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  193 (48%)
Women                207 (52%)

Democrats            139 (35%)
Republicans          115 (29%)
Independents/Other   146 (36%)

18-29                 76 (19%)
30-44                128 (32%)
45-59                124 (31%)
60+                   72 (18%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         33%         31%          9%         15%

MEN                 13%         36%         29%          8%         14%
WOMEN               11%         30%         33%         10%         16%

DEMOCRATS            6%         26%         42%         13%         13%
REPUBLICANS         22%         43%         15%          5%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         32%         33%          9%         16%

18-29                9%         30%         35%         11%         15%
30-44               15%         35%         30%          9%         11%
45-59               13%         34%         29%          8%         16%
60+                 11%         33%         29%          8%         19%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Seals? (If favorableor unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         34%         21%          7%         29%

MEN                  8%         30%         25%         10%         27%
WOMEN               10%         38%         17%          4%         31%

DEMOCRATS           15%         45%         12%          3%         25%
REPUBLICANS          4%         22%         34%         12%         28%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         33%         20%          7%         32%

18-29               12%         37%         18%          6%         27%
30-44                9%         34%         21%          6%         30%
45-59                8%         33%         22%          8%         29%
60+                  8%         32%         23%          8%         29%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Dan Seals the Democrat or Mark Kirk the Republican?

                   KIRK        SEALS       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 44%         38%          2%         16%

MEN                 47%         36%          2%         15%
WOMEN               41%         40%          2%         17%

DEMOCRATS           12%         70%          2%         16%
REPUBLICANS         81%          5%          1%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         34%          3%         18%

18-29               41%         41%          2%         16%
30-44               43%         38%          3%         16%
45-59               46%         37%          3%         14%
60+                 46%         35%          3%         16%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         38%          3%          9%

MEN                 46%         43%          4%          7%
WOMEN               54%         33%          2%         11%

DEMOCRATS           83%          7%          2%          8%
REPUBLICANS         10%         78%          3%          9%
OTHER               51%         36%          3%         10%

18-29               54%         34%          3%          9%
30-44               51%         38%          4%          7%
45-59               48%         40%          3%          9%
60+                 47%         41%          2%         10%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:10 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Kirk to beam up! (5+ / 0-)

    -9.0, -8.3. Member of the League of Really Embarrassed Former Alaskans since 8/29/08 Please help Haiti!

    by SensibleShoes on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:11:49 PM PDT

  •  Here in Chicago... (9+ / 0-)

    We haven't seen many campaign ads for the Presidency (for obvious reasons - Obama will win here and win BIG), but we've seen plenty of the lying ads from Kirk, who prestend that he's not a Republican and has been anti-Bush for his entire tenure.

    Seals could really use some DKos love - he could really win this district, which is less Republican than the former Hastert district, which Bill Foster won earlier this year.

    "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."

    by Viceroy on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:13:15 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, Seals in on the air, but (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Viceroy, BENAWU, Blue Wind

      he's clearly outgunned by Kirk.

    •  Won't Obama have to advertise (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Viceroy

      in the Chicago market to reach NW Indiana?

      John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

      by IhateBush on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:23:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

        He really doesn't need to because he gets so much free media here - like all the time everywhere you look.  In my view, most Chicagoans (and NW Indianans) are well aware of Senator Obama at this stage of the campaign; and just about all of us REALLY like him because he's ours (and, you know, policy and stuff).  So, he doesn't have to and isn't speanding much - at least in the Chicagoland market.  There are a number of NW Indiana TV, newspaper and radio outlets that may be getting some ads, but I don't really watch those channels much and haven't seen anything.

        Obama is silent on paid media in Chicago - which is why all we've been seeing are all these lying Kirk ads.

        "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."

        by Viceroy on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:27:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I was at the gym the other day (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Viceroy

      and looked up to see one of those "I am not a Republican, really" anti-Seal Kirk ads on the TV screen and found myself laughing out loud.  And here in IL-16, that sure nuff must have annoyed people.  I hope.

  •  So much (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, BENAWU

    fun  tossin' anvils

    "For the love of god learn to think on your own" Me

    by givemhellHarryR on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:14:25 PM PDT

  •  You'd hope Obama will have coattails to help (0+ / 0-)

    carry many fellows Dems with him.  The heavily Jewish district could use help from Rahm Emmanuel et al to support or verify Barack's bona fides with the Jewish People and the State of Israel.

    It is the province of knowledge to speak. And it is the privilege of wisdom to listen. Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. US Jurist

    by Oliver W Holmes the 3rd on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:16:16 PM PDT

  •  I am in IL-10 (8+ / 0-)

    And and I have donated repeatedly to his campaign and have a Seals yard sign in my yard :-)

    Dan is a great candidate and this time he should win.  Kirk and an ultra-right wing 527 group  run constantly (very) negative dishonest commercials on TV against Seals in our district.  Seals needs to be more on the air.  I strongly argue people to donate to his campaign.   That support would be crucial for Seals.   He can win this time.

    •  And the Obama vote will come out bigtime and (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BENAWU, Blue Wind

      the Mccain voters won't have any reasont to go the polls in IL. Obama landslide in IL means Seals win in IL-10.

      •  I hope you are right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BENAWU, bkoppe

        I am not convinced that would be necessarily the case.   There are many people that somehow like Kirk in IL-10 (because he pretends to be a moderate republican and claims to be a friend of Israel).   Seals needs to attack him more aggressively and be more on the air.   I think it will be a very very close race at the end.

        •  I can't believe Seals is only at 38% (0+ / 0-)

          I live in IL-08, on the edge of IL-10, and I would've guessed that Seals would be polling a lot higher than that from the feel I get from the area.  But then IL-10 stretches way up into Lake County (I'm in Cook), so maybe those areas are a lot more conservative.  The Cook NW suburbs feel pretty liberal to me.

          •  I'm also in IL-08, at the edge of IL-10 (0+ / 0-)

            and even though we have a Democrat representing us now, we had Crane for so many years.  I can't believe Seals is only at 38% either.  But IL-10 stretches west away from the lake, and those areas tend to be more reliably Republican.  I'm actually in a little sliver of IL-08 sandwiched between IL-10 on the east and also on the west, and it's pretty Republican here.

          •  We are being bombed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bkoppe

            by the far rightwing Freedom's Watch with dishonest ads about taxes and could use a little Kos love to counteract.

            Using my free speech while I still have it.

            by ebgill on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:06:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Send in the Klingons! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU

    evstatus.com - Status of the Electoral College

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:22:05 PM PDT

  •  seems wierd that obama gets such high (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU

    support among 18-29, yet seals is only tied.  kirk running some nasty adds in the area aimed at seniors

  •  Let's Get Dan on the Next Hell to Pay (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU, bkoppe

    I live in the district and I've been pimping Dan heavily for the Hell to Pay fundraisers, to no avail so far. Thanks for the boost, Kos. Let's get Dan the support he needs on the next go round.

    "Two steps forward, one step back." V. I. Lenin

    by LeftOfYou on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:26:19 PM PDT

  •  Keep it up--donate to Seals. & Ellen of the 10ths (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, BENAWU

    blog should be a staple site for people in that district.

    http://ellenofthetenth.blogspot.com/

    She has been doggin his Bush votes for years. And that's so important now that he's trying to claim the middle ground.

  •  Markos.. (5+ / 0-)

    you forgot to mention that Kirk has more money than ANY OTHER incumbent republican congressman (around $4 million) and he uses most of it for negative smear attacks against Seals. Seals definitely needs more support if he is to win.

  •  Threw Kirk an anvil earlier this morning (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU

    while we were all throwing anvils to Tom McClintock. An anvil trio, actually: one for Chris Shays, too.

    © sardonyx; all rights reserved

    by sardonyx on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:27:49 PM PDT

  •  This is great news! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, BENAWU

    As a resident of the 10th, I've seen this race unfold and I've seen the negative ads from Mark Kirk.  It's so great to see Seals closing in, but he could certainly use the financial help to get more ads on the air.  I made another donation today - I hope everyone else will too so I can be have a representative to be proud of!

  •  How Can Anyone Vote Republican These Days? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU, immigradvocate

    We should pick up every single seat. What to Republiconvicts read? Think? It is hard to imagine.

    Go Seals!

    Get your free Anti-Republican signs. Print all you want.

    RepublicansAreADisease.com

    They Read:
    "Republicans Are A Disease"
    "Hang Rove"
    "Republicans America’s Worst Enemy"
    and many more
    Go to  http://www.RepublicansAreADisease.com

  •  I wonder if Obama will do an ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, BENAWU, bkoppe

    for Seals, the way he did for Bill Foster?

    No way. No how. No McCain -Hillary Clinton

    by jj32 on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:30:59 PM PDT

  •  99 Knights of the air (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU

    Ride super-high-tech jet fighters
    Everyone's a Silverhero
    Everyone's a Captain Kirk
    With orders to identify
    To clarify and classify
    Scramble in the summer sky
    As 99 red balloons go by

  •  HAWT Dang! Seals is gooood loooking (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DavidNYC, mcfly, BENAWU

    no wonder Palin wanted $3 million in federal earmarks to study Seals' DNA

    McCain: He's Constipated and Ready to GO

    by Al Rodgers on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:31:41 PM PDT

  •  I wish I were more optimistic about this race (0+ / 0-)

    I don't live in the Tenth District (I'm the the Seventh, which will forever be Democratic), but it doesn't look good for Seals right now. If you look at some of the polling sites, it's still definitely Kirk territory.

  •  I also live in this district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chicago Lulu, BENAWU

    And I talk to many people who also live in this district.

    They are going to vote for Obama, they are also going to vote for Kirk.

    They are not "Party" voters. They do not "see" Kirk as a Republican, and when they see ads linking him to people such as Bush, etc they look at his record that they know of... his "independent" streak, i.e. being pro choice, etc and these ads, at least to these people, are not hitting their mark.

    The area, at least where I am, is "upper middle" class, relative to other areas, a higher Jewish population, so socially progressive but other issues more conservative.

    So I do not see the tie-in, at least from what I have gathered in talking to likely voters, of Kirk to Bush, a likely one to work.

    Do I have a better one? Well... perhaps an issue or two specific campaign. However the "Bush and Kirk" are one in the same is not working.

    Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

    by BFSkinner on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:42:47 PM PDT

    •  your observations are similar to mine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chicago Lulu

      I think the best line of attack in this district is -- rather than try and pretend Kirk is just like Bush -- call him out for being a rubberstamp for Bush.

      People are too smart in IL-10 to be swayed by advertising telling them something they know not to be true.  They way to convince them is to show them because Kirk has supported the Bush policies where it most counted, he deserves to pay the price.

      Appeal not to what these voters don't know about Kirk, appeal to what they do know.  Right now they see him as an acceptable moderate, but they need to be shown why his voting record has been unacceptable.

    •  What about the war? (0+ / 0-)

      Do they want to stay or go? If they want to end the war, there is absolutely no reason for them to vote for Kirk. When Bush has needed his vote, he's gotten it.

      •  In all honesty (0+ / 0-)

        The war is usually not a topic of conversation, usually the topic is the economy, healthcare and education and did I mention the economy?

        Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

        by BFSkinner on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:48:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Seals has an MBA from U of Chicago (0+ / 0-)

          Which is a nice fact to give them, but I just wonder if they realize that Kirk is not really that "Mavericky." What votes have been more important than the war votes in his 8 years of office?

          •  They do not bring the war up (0+ / 0-)

            So for them, it is the economy that is important. I do what I can to discuss Obama, and they are already for Obama.

            However they do like Kirk and see no reason to vote for Seals.

            I listen to them and try to go perhaps on economic tie-ins, etc.

            But if they do not bring up the war I do not.

            Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

            by BFSkinner on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:06:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  I grew up in IL-10... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BENAWU, bkoppe

    ... and it is a VERY socially liberal, but fiscally conservative district.  People in this district are well educated with high incomes. They absolutely HATE Bush and are overwhelmingly in support of Obama.  I bet Obama wins the district by a 2:1 margin at least.

    There is a very strong groundswell of support for Seals, and the number of neighborhood blocks you see lined with Obama and Seals signs is pretty awe-inspiring. Still, as much as people are anti-Republican this cycle, nobody really DISLIKES Kirk.

    My parents have never had a problem with Kirk and have voted for him in the past (though they did vote for Seals in '06), but they have had enough with anyone who rubberstamps Bush and would've voted for any Democrat the past two cycles just based on putting Republicans out of power.  It just so happens they really think Seals is a great candidate.

    Unfortunately, because of the wealthy supporter base in this district, Kirk has strong financial backing. So money will be an uphill battle for Seals.  But the tides are in his favor, and he is one candidate certain to benefit from Obama's coattails. If he's within 2-4 points in the polls leading up to election day, I'm pretty sure he will pull off the victory.

  •  It would be good to pick this disrict up (0+ / 0-)

    But I fear that it may not become competitive until redistricting. Had IL Democrats done a mid-decade redistricting like the GOP did in TX, what I would have done with this district is make it one long narrow strip that runs from the WI border to the IN border no more than 1 or 2 miles wide at any point.

    I would also create one super-Republican district in DuPage county to force Judy Bigger and Peter Roskam into a primary. I'd probably make IL-11 look like it did in the 1990s and take some of the most Black precincts from IL-1 and IL-2 to make it more amenable to the Democrats.

    For IL-8 I'd probably try to take some precincts from IL-4 and IL-7 to make it less hostile for Melissa Bean. As for IL-14, before Foster won it, I would have forced Don Manzullo in IL-16 to run against Dennis Haster. Now I'd try to somehow get a small part of IL-14 into Chicago proper or make some sort of finger to extend into the city somehow.

    •  I think we'll pick it up (0+ / 0-)

      Races like this break hard a couple weeks before the election, and I think Obama will win 56-58% of the vote in the district at the end.

      As far as redistricting, there are four things to do:

      1. Shore up all our suburban districts, that is the 8th, 10th, 11th, and 14th.  Illinois will lose one district, and that will be either Roskam or Biggert.
      1. Remove Rockford from the 16th and put it in the 17th district, and give Manzullo all the hardest core Rethug suburban territory (McHenry County).
      1. If Dan Lipinski is going to vote as a Blue Dog, then he should take more Rethug territory, rather than have a D +10 district.  Draw his district down to the South to take in Rethug areas in Will and Kankakee Counties or westward into DuPage.
      1. Combine the 15th and 19th downstate.  In its place, draw a district that takes in all the Democratic areas downstate and all the college areas like Champaign-Urbana and see if a Democrat can win it.

      John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

      by IhateBush on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:53:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes I agree with you (0+ / 0-)

        I would throw Biggert and Roskan into one super-Republican exurban/suburban district in DuPage. Perhaps I might design it to take away the most conservative suburban precincts in the entire area, although DuPage has more than enough population to hold one district.

      •  Could Rockford go to (0+ / 0-)

        Bill Foster's district?

        •  Probably a stretch to put it there (0+ / 0-)

          but that is a possibility.  My guess is that elimination of Roskam/Biggert would force the districts toward Chicago rather than further outward.

          John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

          by IhateBush on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:14:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  True (0+ / 0-)

            But DuPage has gained population. I could perhaps envision one large district taking in the outer suburbs. The district that we could eliminate the easiest is the 6th.

            •  The problem is that (0+ / 0-)

              the new population in DuPage leans Democratic.  The other problem with this scenario is that the Democratic performance in DuPage is fairly evenly distributed, there is no 60-70% Rethug areas where you can just pack a district from.  The DuPage areas in the 6th is no less Repub than the areas in the 13th.

              What I meant to say is that the 14th, which is the outer suburbs and rural areas, will need to be pushed toward Chicago metro rather than toward the rural areas.  As such, putting Rockford there is impractical.

              John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

              by IhateBush on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:21:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I see what you're saying (0+ / 0-)

                So creating one super-Republican district in DuPage is now impossible, as opposed to 10-20 years ago?

                •  Basically (0+ / 0-)

                  I think the DuPage Co township with the highest Bush vote was with 58% and the lowest with 49%.  Individual towns may have higher and lower areas, but you are dealing with really extreme gerrymandering and snake like districts in that case.  

                  And I would give Obama at least 50/50 odds of carrying DuPage Co this year.  It will be a disappointment if he does not.

                  John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

                  by IhateBush on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:33:23 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  <Desolate sigh> (0+ / 0-)

        Sincerely,

        Stranded in IL-16

  •  With this, and Wulsin... (0+ / 0-)

    from yesterday's poll, given that they also ran in 2006 and lost very close races, I'm wondering why their numbers are still below the 40% mark.  I mean, yeah, it's nice to see the incumbent under 50%, so we know there's dissatisfaction in those districts, but our candidates aren't exactly fresh names.  They got their name out there already in 2006, didn't they?  Both candidates are underperforming their 2006 numbers.  Why is that?

    •  New voters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bkoppe

      Presidential year means new voters. They don't follow the race until late and don't know the candidates' records. In off-years, those folks tell pollsters they are probably not voting, so they don't get polled.

  •  I know (0+ / 0-)

    that yard signs are not considered important, yada yada yada, but I drive up to Glencoe two or three times a week, and I probably see 5 Kirk signs to every one Seals sign.  Again, I'm not saying that yard signs are more important than donating or volunteering, but for somebody who is trying to get name recognition in the district, yard signs wouldn't be a bad place to start.  

  •  I love Seals as a candidate but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheWhiteKnight

    with all the money being spent here, shouldn't polling have us in dead heat.

    while i've got your attention Kos - take a look at Josh Segall in AL-03.

    we've got a fighting chance down there.

  •  Don't count on the Jewish vote (or enviros) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheWhiteKnight

    Kirk is good friend of Jews and helps arm Israel.  It's silly to say Jews

    wouldn't pick up the phone, or the numbers may be even better for Seals

    Also, Kirk claims to be an enviro, something coal-licking, corn-burning, radioactive Dem's have trouble with.

    •  Wrong (0+ / 0-)

      The Jewish vote is not owned by Kirk. He lost Moraine Township in Highland Park and almost lost W. Deerfield Township and didn't do so well in Northbrook, some of the most concentrated populations of Jewish people. In 2006, Kirk won in the western tail of the IL-10 added on as part of the incumbent protection program. This is not at all a Jewish area.

      Using my free speech while I still have it.

      by ebgill on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:02:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not sure (0+ / 0-)

        This poll isn't as optimistic as it's being spun to be for Dan. I'm not convinced that he has the Jewish vote. Just because he made inroads in communities with large Jewish populations does not mean that it is because he won over the Jewish voters. Those voters who were not reached on the Rosh Hashanah last week might lean more towards Kirk than you think--pushing that number further out of reach. As a Jew I know that Kirk is a strong advocate for Israel--one of the strongest in Congress--and to a lot of Jewish voters that sometimes is the only issue. A lot of the people at my temple (Moriah in West Deerfield) that I've talked to this past week have strongly entrenched themselves in the Kirk camp. (I think it's kind of stupid considering both parties are going to stick up for Israel, but sometimes the way people choose sides on issues like this is stupid.) On top of this Kirk recently went on the record against Palin to solidify his "independent" image to voters. Sometimes it doesn't take a lot to do that.

  •  Drop off voters are the key! (0+ / 0-)

    I was canvassing in North Chicago in IL-10 last week.  I spoke to an 82 year old woman.  She is voting for Obama.  But when asked about the  Seals-Kirk race she said she votes for President and then stops.  This is hard to understand for intensely political folks like us, but it happens.

    In 2004 there were 285,000 votes for President in the district, but only 277,000 votes for Congress.  Those 8000 "drop off voters" are likely to be Obama voters who could be Seals voters if we reach them.

    If you are near the District, please help canvass to reach them.  There are dozens of canvasses in every corner of the district every week.  If not, please contribute so the campaign can reach them with ads.

    So what happened to the 82 year old woman who stops after voting for President.  No problem!  We explained that Obama needs a strong progressive Democratic Congress to pass laws to fix the mess that Bush and Kirk have gotten us in.  She now says she will vote for Seals.  We marked down another "1" on the walk sheet.

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