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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/01. Likely voters. MoE  5%

Boccieri (D) 48
Schuring (R) 38

Wow. Boccieri leads among men and women, among all age brackets, and has a 13-point lead among independents to go with his comfortable edge among Democrats.

Boccieri far outstrips Obama's performance in OH-16 at the moment; Obama merits a three-point edge over McCain, 49% to 46%. Not that that's bad, not by a long shot; Bush won by nine points in 2000 and eight points in 2004.

Boccieri - a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, State Senator, and former semiprofessional baseball player - has proven to be a terrific candidate, and this lead appears to be for real; SurveyUSA has pegged the race as 49% for Boccieri, 41% for Schuring.

Driehaus' race is a pure tossup, but this one leans Boccieri's way.

On the web:
John Boccieri for Congress

OH-16 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Sixteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 29 and October 1, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  188 (47%)
Women                212 (53%)

Democrats            176 (44%)
Republicans          148 (37%)
Independents/Other    76 (19%)

18-29                 73 (18%)
30-44                119 (30%)
45-59                125 (31%)
60+                   83 (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Schuring? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         30%         21%         10%         28%

MEN                 13%         32%         20%          9%         26%
WOMEN                9%         28%         22%         11%         30%

DEMOCRATS            6%         18%         30%         15%         31%
REPUBLICANS         17%         43%         11%          7%         22%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         29%         21%          9%         31%

18-29                8%         28%         23%         12%         29%
30-44               15%         34%         18%          7%         26%
45-59               10%         29%         22%         10%         29%
60+                 10%         29%         22%         11%         28%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Boccieri? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         31%         18%          7%         31%

MEN                 11%         29%         21%          8%         31%
WOMEN               15%         33%         15%          6%         31%

DEMOCRATS           18%         42%          8%          4%         28%
REPUBLICANS          7%         18%         31%         11%         33%
INDEPENDENTS        14%         33%         15%          6%         32%

18-29               15%         33%         16%          5%         31%
30-44               10%         27%         22%         10%         31%
45-59               13%         32%         17%          7%         31%
60+                 13%         32%         17%          6%         32%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for John Boccieri the Democrat or Kirk Schuring the Republican?

                   BOCCIERI    SCHURING    OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         38%          4%         10%

MEN                 46%         41%          5%          8%
WOMEN               50%         35%          3%         12%

DEMOCRATS           82%          6%          3%          9%
REPUBLICANS          7%         76%          5%         12%
OTHER               50%         37%          6%          7%

18-29               49%         36%          3%         12%
30-44               45%         42%          5%          8%
45-59               50%         37%          5%          8%
60+                 49%         37%          3%         11%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         46%          3%          2%

MEN                 45%         51%          3%          1%
WOMEN               53%         41%          3%          3%

DEMOCRATS           82%         12%          3%          3%
REPUBLICANS         10%         87%          2%          1%
OTHER               51%         43%          3%          3%

18-29               51%         44%          2%          3%
30-44               46%         51%          2%          1%
45-59               50%         45%          4%          1%
60+                 49%         44%          4%          3%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:15 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Love all the internals (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, nyc175, GARoach

    on DK polls!

    •  Brownsox, you probably need to identify Dreihaus (0+ / 0-)

      for non-Ohioans. That reference is sort of out of nowhere. Dreihaus is running against Steve Chabor in Oh-01 down by Cincinnati. It's one of six races in Republican-held districts which are competitive, along with Boccieri's, Mary Jo Kilroy's in Oh-15, Vic Wulsin's in Oh-02, Bill O'Neill's in OH-14 and Sharen Neuhardt's in Oh-07.

      No Democratic-held districts are competitive. The one I'm sitting in, Oh-10, will be the closest (Dennis Kucinich's) but it won't be that close.

      We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:18:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nov 5 is going to be a fun day (0+ / 0-)

    Pickups everywhere and finally leadership we can believe in.

  •  Races like this will help Obama win Ohio (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, GARoach

    Reverse coattails.

    •  What I've been saying for ages (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, GARoach

      People are so fired up about the outstanding congressional candidates we have running that they will get more Democrats out to vote. The Republicans could barely find anyone to run against the Democrats. Actually, in some districts, they couldn't.

      We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:19:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So true (0+ / 0-)

      Boccieri is a great candidate with a good reputation in the Ohio statehouse.  He and his pal Tim Ryan will help Obama win these counties.

  •  A question about Ohio (0+ / 0-)

    In which districts, do you think Obama would underperform Kerry? So far, polls from a handful of districts, show McCain underperforming Bush/Obama outperforming Kerry, even in conservative districts. Seems like if this similar pattern holds across the state, Obama would win Ohio.

    No way. No how. No McCain -Hillary Clinton

    by jj32 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:20:57 AM PDT

    •  Obama very well may win Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      I think a lot of this remains to be seen -- in the current polls, it is fairly likely that Obama is out-performing Kerry/Gore in basically every area (since he is leading by mid single digits and not losing, of course).

      Obama is visiting S, SW, and W Ohio as part of a bus-tour later this week.  In November, I assume he'll be able to run up the score in Cuyahoga, Lorain, Summit and Franklin counties, and even probably in Mahoning.  And he'll probably win Hamilton Country, where Cincinnati is at (Kerry lost by 6%).  

      He just needs to make sure Southern and NW Ohio doesn't run away from him as it did for Bush in 2004.  Kerry got absolutely crushed in most of these counties (3:1, 2:1 margins).

      Because hope and reason are not mutually exclusive.

      by OWUJason on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:28:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I love how DK focuses on the less glamorous (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Marcus Graly

    but oh-so-important down-the-pike races.

    Great work brownsox and kudos for the great work you do. I darethink you are responsible for a lot of the progress we see Dems making across the land. Kudos!

    Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

    by Jeremy10036 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:21:52 AM PDT

  •  Boccieri was my State Senator (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, GARoach

    for much of my life until I moved to NoVa in March.  When I heard he was going to run, I figured it would turn into a fairly safe pick-up.  He's an incredible guy with a truly inspiring life-story.

    Although I hope to not be getting ahead of myself -- I know the future is bright for John.  He's still a young guy.  And he is also pretty close with Governor Strickland (*cough* 2014).

    All in all, Democrats in Ohio have an extremely deep bench.

    Because hope and reason are not mutually exclusive.

    by OWUJason on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:22:09 AM PDT

  •  I know this isn't open thread, but we (0+ / 0-)

    haven't had one for awhile....I thought this was pretty funny:

    BTW, this polls give me great hope for Ohio in the general.

  •  What's that saying? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, GARoach

    As Ohio goes, so goes the nation? God, I hope that's true for down ticket, too, because these numbers are starting to look very interesting.

    What's a good atheist substitute for "God bless America and Godspeed to you all"? Have a nice day and drive fast?

    by Pager on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:40:42 AM PDT

  •  OT: what's with Indiana? (0+ / 0-)

    I don't follow closely enough, but is Evan Bayh not stumping for Obama in Indiana? why are the polls there so far below national polls?

    •  Be patient (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, mmiddle

      Indiana hasn't gone Democratic since 1964. Maybe it will this time, but it will be close. Last poll I saw had Obama down by just a point, which makes it one of the big homestretch toss-ups, along with Missouri.

      Obama will do well to appear in both states a few times over the final 30 days.

      Indiana's always been much harder to win than the other Great Lake states. For one thing, it doesn't have a huge rust belt metro area like the others have Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee to rack up huge Dem margins and counter the smaller farm counties that lean Republican. Indianapolis isn't rust belt, and Gary is much smaller than those other cities. The fact that it's on the map at all is a real tribute to Obama's utter, utter, awesomeness.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:11:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GARoach

    Just moved to OH-16; normally a red district. Enthusiasm for Obama is terrific here -- 4500 turned up for Biden's rally in Wooster. Glad to see Boccieri is doing well!

  •  Great report as usual - but a suggestion. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, MJJLWolf

    In addition to listing the district, could you give a brief description of the location for the district in these CD poll updates? That would help put the poll in context. Urban, rural, suburban, etc.

    I was drawn to the flame because of the light, but got lost in the smoke.

    by maizenblue on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:47:29 AM PDT

  •  Here in Tubbs-Jones' open district, we see a fair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GARoach

    number of his commercials, but less so for his opponent.  Must be trying to reach every part of the district.

    His ads seem to have a good mix of talking himself up and letting people know who he is, vs. defining the opponent.  Meanwhile, like more and more Republican ads, the opposing ads can only talk about Boccieri as well, raising the bogeyman of higher taxes.

    You can really tell which party the candidate is from (even when they try to hide it) if you pay attention to the tone, at least most of the time.  If the other guy was a known factor, trying to make people not like Boccieri might work, but as is, people swayed by Schuring's ads are more likely to just not vote, since he doesn't ever really indicate why he's a credible alternative.

    (-3.63, -3.03): Dkos' rabid right wing
    John McCain. The President lobbyists have been waiting for.

    by someone else on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:58:33 AM PDT

  •  Why Boccieri Controls OH-16! (0+ / 0-)

    John Boccieri At Canton's Golden Lodge #1123

    30 SEPT 2008

  •  My District (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GARoach
    I like the results!
  •  Hooray (0+ / 0-)

    It's been a long, long time since Stark County had anyone other than Ralph Regula. It sure will be nice to have a Democrat.

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