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In thousands. (Last week's numbers in parenthesis.)

These are different than the Wisconsin Advertising Project's (PDF) numbers floating around, coming instead from TNS Media Intelligence (a subscription service).

  McCain RNC Obama DNC
CO up838 (464) none- (-) up987 (979) up2 (1)
FL up686 (436) down- (4) down2,224 (3,100) down14 (18)
IA up299 (151) none- (-) up176 (157) none- (-)
IN none- (-) up247 (41) up628 (415) up3 (1)
ME none- (-) none- (-) up59 (2) none- (-)
MI up720 (292) up529 (63) up1,586 (754) up8 (1)
MN up652 (202) none- (-) up237 (66) none- (-)
MO up200 (104) none- (-) up447 (356) up11 (6)
MT none- (-) none- (-) none73 (47) none- (-)
NC up157 (47) none- (-) up1,180 (688) up13 (3)
NH none189 (96) none- (-) up349 (258) none- (-)
NV up320 (299) none- (-) down626 (737) down2 (3)
NM up181 (147) none- (-) down198 (254) none- (-)
OH up1,128 (485) up633 (103) up2,229 (1,217) none- (-)
PA up1,322 (942) up372 (69) up2,264 (1,882) down12 (14)
SC none- (-) none- (-) up75 (67) none- (-)
VA up319 (93) up306 (25) up1,969 (1,215) up12 (5)
WI up710 (295) up248 (26) up1,158 (666) down- (1)
WV up46 (23) up55 (11) up52 (43) none- (-)
Cable down51 (500) none- (-) down307 (326) none- (-)
National up1,530 (994) none- (-) down307 (404) none- (-)
Total up9,360 (5,239) up2,390 (337) up17,867 (13,371) up77 (52)

A couple of notes:

  1. McCain has invested significantly in national ad buys -- a good 16 percent of his ad budget. By comparison, national ad buys make up only 1.7 percent of Obama's. This suggests that the McCain camp has been desperately trying to reverse his poor national polling. While we may not have a national election, his collapse in the national polling has clearly filtered down to the state level.
  1. It doesn't look like they've pulled out of Michigan.
  1. Why is the McCain campaign spending $3.9 million in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- all states in which he's trailing badly? All he has to do to win is hold the Bush states, yet he's pissing away almost half of his ad budget playing futile offense.
  1. The RNC is finally engaged. Yet given all the money they have -- $76 million at last check -- what are they waiting for? Maybe they're burning cash building a field operation in the battleground states. Or they're sitting and waiting for a last-minute blitz. Hopefully they burn that cash on the presidential campaign, rather than reorient toward House and Senate races.
  1. Obama finally put some meat into Minnesota, a state he had sort of blown off for a while.
  1. The RNC is riding to McCain's rescue in Indiana.
  1. I love that Obama is still dabbling in Montana. It's a cheap state to run advertising in. In Billings, it's about $79 per ad. In Butte, it's $53. On the other hand, in Philadelphia, it's $1,474 per ad. In Cleveland it's $1,113.

Update: Several commenters note that the Michigan ad buys were already in the pipeline when McCain pulled out. Could be. Next week's numbers will be conclusive on that question.

Update II: Ambinder says this is Michigan's last week.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:28 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  On point #3 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    awnm, Norbrook, TDreamer

    Who cares?

    Let the old man waste his coins!

    "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

    by krwlngwthyou on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:30:57 PM PDT

  •  I'm in NM and there's a damn (9+ / 0-)

    McCain commercial every break it seems.

    If he's spending that much and down by that many, he can keep pouring money down that black hole as far as I'm concerned.

    McCain/Palin: If we can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, we'll baffle 'em with bullshit! (-3.38, -3.38)

    by awnm on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:31:40 PM PDT

    •  same with WI. McCain's WI ads just seem so (6+ / 0-)

      stupid...they're those "big liberal spender" ads....problem for McCain is, WI doesn't have a problem with liberals.  We love our Russ.

      "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

      by krwlngwthyou on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:33:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  O should win 70/30 in south central WI, (0+ / 0-)

        and with Mad, Fitchburg, Sun Prairie, Milwau, Janesville, ect making up so many of the voters- plus all the students in the UW system- he should win no matter how much McCain spends...

        http://www.donorschoose.org/donors/proposal.html?id=212677

        by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:37:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I See Them All The Time Too... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        beltane

        ... and I'm in Vermont.

        The New Hampshire numbers are not exactly right unless they are including Vermont and select Massachusetts cable stations. New Hampshire does not have that many channels of their own - one commercial station, plus PBS - with the rest depending on the part of the state you are in coming from Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maine.

        So we get a ton of advertising here too despite Vermont not being even close to in play. Plus, NESN, the New England cable network for the Red Sox, has been flooded by both with ads.

        •  Same thing with VA (0+ / 0-)

          You have to add in a Salisbury, MD station that covers the Eastern Shore of VA, plus I wonder what markets bleed over into SW VA that are from TN or NC. I'm sure they are cheap buys - maybe even MT cheap - but still, McCain's having to play defense, which helps us.

          --Sent from my Blackberry, "the miracle John McCain helped create." (not really, for both)

          by duck on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:56:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Re: McCain field operations (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, TDreamer

      I haven't been contacted by any of McCain's field ops by phone or knock, but there are a HELL of a lot of McCain yard signs that have popped up in the past day or so.

      I'm in the southern Philadelphia suburbs.

  •  Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

    Minnesota's been dry for a long time - I'm just FINALLY starting to see ads - Meanwhile, McCain and the RNC have been dropping about 3-4/hr on the locals it seems.

    The House and Senate candidates are doing ok getting the message out but Coleman's been playing dirty too - not really talking about issues but looking for character assassination.

    Glad to see Barack is spreading some love - LOL

    RB

    There are only two kinds of music - the blues and Zip Pa Dee Doo Dah - Townes Van Zandt

    by whiskeytown on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:32:19 PM PDT

    •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

      I'd like to see more Obama ads in Minnesota.

      Jesus was a community organizer; Pontius Pilate was a governor.

      by SlackwareGrrl on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:01:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesota's been solid blue for nearly 40 yrs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      in Presidential elections.  There's no way it's going to flip in a Democratic cycle.  McCain is pissing his money away here - Which I don't mind at all.  I'd rather see Indiana go blue because McCain took his eye off the ball than to see him pull all the way out of obvious losses like MI, WI and MN to play defense.

      "It is better to debate a question without settling it than to settle a question without debating it." Joseph Joubert

      by Rush 2112 on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:03:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  West Virginia (5+ / 0-)

    I don't understand why the Obama campaign is not pushing harder in the state given McCain's small lead there.

  •  Obama ouspending McCain on tv ads nearly 3-1 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duck, elmo, duha

    Obama outspending McCain as vote nears

    (AP) WASHINGTON - Barack Obama is outspending John McCain at a nearly 3-to-1 clip on television time in the final weeks of the campaign, an edge contributing to the Democrat's momentum in key battleground states.

    From Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, Obama spent more than $20 million on television ads in 17 states, including more than $3 million in Pennsylvania and more than $2 million each in Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

    McCain over that same time period spent just $7.2 million in 14 states.

    Tell me again how taking public financing was the right thing to do..

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:32:53 PM PDT

  •  IA and NM are Bush states too (4+ / 0-)
    so McCain is going to have to replace those 12 EVs he's lost (as I agree they're both gone) so it makes sense that he has to play some offense.
    •  He can afford to lose them, actually (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha, Mordoch, fearisthemindkiller, drache

      If McCain wins every Bush state except IA and NM he still has 274 EV. Cutting it awfully close of course, given our leads in CO, FL, NV, OH and VA, and competitiveness in NC, IN, and MO, but one possible strategy is to abandon all states won by either Kerry or Gore and hope to run the table.

      •  McCain's path to victory getting more and more (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zacgo, elmo, drache

        unlikely.

        Beginning to feel like the homestretch of the primary, with HRC looking at long odds on the Math but playing out the schedule.

        "I believe marriage should be a sacred institution between two unwilling teenagers." Tina Fey as Palin.

        by fearisthemindkiller on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:50:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  i stand corrected (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elmo, Marcus Graly

        all good points though.

        I just heard an interesting strategy of abandoned everything and put everything into OH and FL.

        Frankly I doubt that will work, even he managed to hold those 2 states Obama can win without them.

        You really gotta give Obama credit he's played this election like a chess grand master; McCain's pretty much screwed whatever he does. A couple months ago I'd have sympathy for the guy, now I just want the Reagan alliance of bigots and fisical conservatives to die a metaphorical death.

  •  Yes, (0+ / 0-)

    Let's elect Dems.

    National health care.

    Reduced national deficit and debt.

    Better whatever.

  •  4. Answer: (0+ / 0-)

    RNC Finance officials have squirreled most of that money away in numbered Swiss accounts, and plan to take a long vacation in November.

    Sen MCain attacked Barack Obama for protecting children. John McCain would rather win an election than protect your children from child molesters.

    by Deighved H Stern MD on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:34:39 PM PDT

  •  RNC is withholding cuz they know its a lost cause (4+ / 0-)

    so why not save your pennies for another rainy day?

  •  Obama Should Stick Around North Dakota Too.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    housesella, raincrow, TDreamer

    Fargo and Grand Forks markets reach into northwestern Minnesota...and I'd be willing to bet they're as cheap if not cheaper than Montana.  Hopefully Obama heads into Maine too...just in case McCain manages to make ME-02 competitive with his coming ad buys.

  •  An interesting corollary to your montana (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bmaples, raincrow, TDreamer

    ad analysis is that congressional seats come damn cheap out here in the intermountain west as well. Some estimated that for a measly 200K, we could have picked up an additional seat in utah (cannon's seat) last time around.  In contrast, try winning a congressional seat for 200K in philadelphia!

    "For Ms. Palin, such things as context, syntax and the proximity of answers to questions have no meaning." Bob Herbert

    by UTvoter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:35:12 PM PDT

    •  Agreed. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm a little surprised the RNCC isn't going after Matheson (UT02).  He's usually a favorite target.  But given that his district is blue (Northern SLC/Park City) now, Dew seems a sacrificial goat at this point.  

      The MT strategy is a good one, but he should be focusing on ND, WV, and the like, and maybe give Ut some airplay.   Every EV lost is an extra twist of the knife given how the map is really going against McCain.  

      We have done the impossible, and that makes us mighty.

      by TheStormofWar on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:01:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well (0+ / 0-)

        Matheson is pretty entrenched with a huge war chest and also, as you point out, SLC is a great blue dot. In addition, the RNC is most likely trying hard to hang on to Cannon's old seat with the psycho running for it.

        "For Ms. Palin, such things as context, syntax and the proximity of answers to questions have no meaning." Bob Herbert

        by UTvoter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 07:39:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Iowa? Almost $300,000 McBucks in Iowa? (0+ / 0-)

    Are they nuts? Or am I missing something?

    Always be sincere, even if you don't mean it. - Harry S Truman

    by parker parrot on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:35:47 PM PDT

  •  90.5% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cookiesandmilk, Greasy Grant

    Those are Obama's odds of winning the election now, according to 538.com.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:35:52 PM PDT

  •  Great Info! Thanks for sharing! -n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  I can't believe John McCain is (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    housesella, duha, beltane

    still spending so much money in Pennsylvania. It is one of his larger ad buys... if I were him, I would take all that money out and put it into either Florida or Virginia. He is not going to win Pennsylvania and it is pretty clear at this point.

  •  Great new Graphic!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elliott

    much better than the plain text formatting

    "Journalism" is Dead... RIP Summer 2008

    by Hope Reborn on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:37:33 PM PDT

  •  I wish Obama's team would look at a map (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ironheel, raincrow, duha, TDreamer, Murry

    and realize that southern Indiana is across the river from Louisville.

    He's won Louisville, lost Kentucky. Running ads here will reach those Hoosiers, and not hurt the other Dems in Kentucky, because Louisville is pretty reliably blue.

    It may be that the KDP or the DNC has asked them not to run ads here, in order not to stir up the Repubs and help McConnell or Northup or any of the other starring lineup the Repubs are putting up. If that's the case, okay -- I understand.

    But there's been NOTHING on the air here since the primaries, and I think the southern Indiana voters are still persuadable.

    Bruce in Louisville
    Visit me at brucemaples.com

    by bmaples on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:37:46 PM PDT

  •  I just love the spending contrast (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Danny Boy, TDreamer, AtomikNY

    in NC and VA. mccain was really caught sleeping on those states.

  •  Michigan (4+ / 0-)

    Sure as fuck doesn't look like McCain is "pulling out", this must be a media bluff by announcing it, hoping the Obama camp would take it at face value

    "Could an omnipotent being create a rock so heavy that even that being could not lift it?"

    by awkawk on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:38:09 PM PDT

    •  they are. They insisted they will remain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow

      as committed to MI as ever.

      "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

      by krwlngwthyou on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:40:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd wonder what markets the buys went to (0+ / 0-)

      Does Detroit media reach to northern IN and NW OH?

      OTOH given the unbelievable whizdumb the McGoo campaign has displayed to this point, maybe they're spending in Detroit to target Windsor. (Refresh my memory--how many EVs does Ontario have?)

      May I bow to Necessity not/ To her hirelings (W. S. Merwin)

      by Uncle Cosmo on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:51:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's kinda like how he "suspended" (0+ / 0-)

      his campaign to "rush back" to DC and "not phone it in" when he didn't suspend his campaign, he didn't rush back and he did phone it in.

      --Sent from my Blackberry, "the miracle John McCain helped create." (not really, for both)

      by duck on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:01:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I love the Indiana numbers. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ironheel, beltane, TDreamer, AtomikNY

    The RNC has had to multiply their ad expenditures by SIX TIMES because McCain is completely ignoring the state.

    Go Blue Indiana Go!

    And the Florida numbers are awesome too. Obama is doing so well there, he and the DNC can cut back by a whopping 30%, lol.

    McCain tripling his NC budget, but is still spending barely more than 10% of what Obama is.

    All excellent numbers, excellent news.

    Viva Hope! Viva Obama!

  •  I knew it about Michigan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    It was a fake.

    It turns out that Bush IS a uniter... he united the good half of the country virulently against him.

    by fizziks on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:39:51 PM PDT

  •  I am assuming that DNC is using their money (0+ / 0-)

    for other election related activities. Otherwise 77,000 is pretty small amount to pay for ads.

    Rabindranath Tagore-"Bigotry tries to keep truth safe in its hand with a grip that kills it."

    by joy sinha on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:40:11 PM PDT

    •  DCCC is spending on House races (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shpilk

      The DCCC has bought a TON of ads in MD-01 for Frank Kratvoil. They polled in early September (when McCain mania was at its HEIGHT) and he was tied with Club for Growth troll Andy Harris. Since then, they've jumped in in a big way. Of course, it's cheap to do in the Salisbury, MD tv market, but still...

      --Sent from my Blackberry, "the miracle John McCain helped create." (not really, for both)

      by duck on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:03:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Timing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    True Independent

    Some of the buying decisions that we are looking at may have been made weeks ago when polling looked much different.  I don't know what kind of contract obligations they have when they reserve the TV time.  Are they capable of pulling the ad at the last moment?  Or if they buy two weeks ago, they have the time wheather they put up anything or not?

    The buys for PA and IA make no sense to me at all.

    •  Ding ding ding (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Danny Boy

      You nailed it.  A lot of ad buys are locked in advance, Ambinder says that McCain's Michigan ad buys will end by the end of this week.

      •  McCain is a fool to let his money to be wasted (0+ / 0-)

        that way .. oh well. I know people involved in NH media, and at least during the primaries rapid changing of ad buys are the norm, not the exception.

        Perhaps his staff is so green, they don't even realize they could have worked than into the contract, to pay a 15% cancellation fee is better than pissing money into the wind.

        Sucks to be them, I guess.

        The 50 State strategy works, thanks to Howard Dean! Donate!

        by shpilk on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:16:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually most TV stations allow for rapid swap (0+ / 0-)

      out of space for political ads. The normal lead time for placement of ads is two to three weeks, but political campaigns usually find ways around that [they may pay a cancellation fee in some markets].

      The 50 State strategy works, thanks to Howard Dean! Donate!

      by shpilk on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:14:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My Parents Live in Michigan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sandy on Signal, raincrow

    outside of Flint.  I talked to them this weekend and McCain is STILL running ads.  He hasn't pulled out, but then again, its obvious Todd didn't either.....

    If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention...

    by strohdecaire on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:40:52 PM PDT

  •  per #2 (0+ / 0-)

    anecdotally it seems like there's been a marked decrease in the number of ads from mccain in the last 2 days. The weekend was filled with them (as if he would get his money's worth advertising during a "lions" game, but there ya go), but monday thru today, I've not noticed any in the lansing market. Plenty of Obama ads, but mccain has been conspicuous by his absence, especially since they were so ubiquitous over the weekend.  A few RNC and MRP ads but nothing from mccain's campaign itself.

    A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

    by dougymi on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:41:20 PM PDT

  •  re: point #3 (0+ / 0-)

    Why is the McCain campaign spending $3.9 million in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- all states in which he's trailing badly? All he has to do to win is hold the Bush states

    Well, New Mexico and Iowa are Bush states.  And, as you point out, he's trailing badly in both of them.  If he cedes all the states in this list, he's back to the 2000 map, but without New Hampshire.

    In which case he loses.

    My two-part plan for raising $700 billion. 1) Reinstate the inheritance tax. 2) Send Dick Cheney on a hunting trip with 700 billionaires.

    by RickD on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:43:10 PM PDT

  •  Michigan was included in a major ad buy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dougymi, True Independent, fsbohnet

    ..by the RNC, $5 million worth of already paid ad time. The check had cleared and almost the next day the McCain campaign announced they were pulling out of Michigan. The RNC --and the Michigan GOP-- are completely pissed at McCain now.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:43:12 PM PDT

    •  I love the quote from brooks patterson (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV, Scarce

      "We’re blindsided, along with everybody else in Michigan," said Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. "I feel like I woke up this morning, and there was a note on my pillow."

      I don't like the guy, but he sure can turn a phrase.

      A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

      by dougymi on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:46:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kos given that these numbers are from last week (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV

    McCain's pullout from Michigan would not be reflected in these numbers, but it is interesting how much money he did throw down the toilet there before giving up.  Every dollar wasted there was one dollar he could have spent in FLA, OH, VA, NC, CO, NV, etc., the real battleground states.

  •  wondering why no one (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    has diaried cindy mccains outrageous
    comments today in pa.

    Sorry I'm on my iPhone can't link it but its on halperins time
    page

    •  anyone know what these are? (0+ / 0-)

      curious.

      •  Cindy McCain jumped the shack (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DelRPCV, island in alabama

        "Let me tell you just a little something that I was not so happy about. My son, like so many others, and today like the Palin's son, have served on the front lines, helping keep peace and helping freedom for other people. I'm a blue star mom, just like Gov. Palin is. I'm proud of my sons, but let me tell you, the day that Sen. Obama decided to cast a vote to not fund my son when he was serving sent a cold chill through my body," Cindy McCain said.

        "I would suggest that Sen. Obama change shoes with me for just one day, and see what it means, and see what it means to have a loved one serving in the armed forces, and more importantly, serving in harms way. I suggest he take a day and go watch our fine young men and women deploy, get on those busses and leave with a smile and a charge."

        She believes (or pretend to) their own BS

        "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

        by IamTheJudge on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:03:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What a ... well, words fail me. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DelRPCV

          Oh, Cindy? Your hubby voted against a war funding resolution that same day, too. Obama voted FOR a war funding will with a timeline, McCain voted AGAINST it. So, he voted against the troops just as much as Obama did. Which is to say, they didn't.

          Apple didn't fall to far from the tree with that one. Go google up the NYT piece on her dad. What a fine, upstanding American HE was.

          --Sent from my Blackberry, "the miracle John McCain helped create." (not really, for both)

          by duck on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:08:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I've been working at the cafeteria today. CNN (0+ / 0-)

      has been broadcasting Mccain campaign all day long.
      (balanced much?!)
      I saw Cindy was talking but didn't care to try to find out what the hell she's talking about.

      Do what you feel in your heart to be right - for you'll be criticized anyway---Eleanor Roosevelt

      by alieninamerica on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:01:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nothing in GA? (3+ / 0-)

    Kind of surprising.

    Still, I like the whole thing, we look good.

    Any word on September fundraising?

  •  The states column (0+ / 0-)

    How about making the states column cells red or blue. This way it would be easy to see how its working.

  •  What is the DNC spending all its money on (0+ / 0-)

    if not advertising?

    •  Organization. Office space, phone lines, (0+ / 0-)

      renting all sorts of office equipment.

      You think this stuff is all donated? Phone lines are not cheap in most markets for multi lines, can run thousands per month.

      The 50 State strategy works, thanks to Howard Dean! Donate!

      by shpilk on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:10:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  He pulled out of MI just like he suspended his (3+ / 0-)

    campaign.  Yup yup.

    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein, Ben Franklin, or Rita Mae Brown

    by TAH from SLC on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:45:23 PM PDT

  •  If it's that cheap in Montana (0+ / 0-)

    then are there some 527s running there? I would think the environmental argument would go over well there.

    Only state in the lower 48 with glaciers, right?

  •  Both campaigns think that CO is important. (0+ / 0-)

    If McCain is to stage a comeback anywhere, CO would be the place because of the fact that Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats, but Indies top both.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:48:40 PM PDT

    •  CO (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mordoch

      If McCain loses both Iowa and New Mexico, he absolutely must take CO.  If he loses all 3, he'd have to pick up a Kerry state (and NH would not be enough).

      My two-part plan for raising $700 billion. 1) Reinstate the inheritance tax. 2) Send Dick Cheney on a hunting trip with 700 billionaires.

      by RickD on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:51:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  that one 08 (0+ / 0-)

    I was not lying. I said things that later on seemed to be untrue. Richard Nixon, discussing Watergate

    by roydoe on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:49:22 PM PDT

  •  Michigan (0+ / 0-)

    I am still hearing McCain radio ads  (as well as numerous Obama ones).

  •  No ad buy in Nebraska 2? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought they are making a play for it..

    Do what you feel in your heart to be right - for you'll be criticized anyway---Eleanor Roosevelt

    by alieninamerica on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:49:55 PM PDT

  •  So McCain threatens to go after ME's 2nd CD (0+ / 0-)

    ...and Obama is the only one to start spending a little money there? LOL!

    You dopes got schooled Biden-style!

    by AtomikNY on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:50:36 PM PDT

  •  meanwhile in CA, prop 8... (0+ / 0-)

    I heard a radio program today about California's odious proposition 8 which would chage the state constitution to ban same sex marriage

    I didn't hear how much is being spent - but I did hear that money is pouring in from bigots all over the country - and that pro prop 8 $$$$ far exceeds money contributes to the opposition.


    effing fundies seem to be pulling out all the stops & targeting young voters with their b.s.


    ````
    peace

  •  why is either campaign spending $s in CA? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow
    Can't figure it out given that CA has basically never been in question... (There are no data for CA in the table but there are ads from both campaigns on TV, at least in the Sacramento market.)
    •  Turnout affects Congress big time (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, fsbohnet

      there are a lot of contested Congressional races here;  the more Obama voters turn out, the more progressive Democrats we send to Washington.  We have a chance to get rid of horrible GOP mainstays like Dan Lundgren and Tom McClintock.    

      Voting Republican is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

      by dotalbon on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:56:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  On subject of numbers, tomorrow is 10.9.8..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon, Vivian Eponymous

    If you like numbers as much as me, tomorrow is a great countdown to victory date!!!

  •  Starting to ramp up (4+ / 0-)

    in Missouri.  While canvassing I ran into Democrats who are uncertain about Obama.  Code for you know what.  Anyways, I handed out literature to these people that spoke to Obama's story. I think a few commercials regarding Obama's story will turn Missouri blue.

    "For the love of god learn to think on your own" Me

    by givemhellHarryR on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:55:17 PM PDT

  •  How much time could the RNC buy? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon

    I wish I new more about media buying, but as we get closer to Election Day I'm wondering if there aren't enough "avails" on local affiliates in those battleground states. Maybe the RNC is spending proportionally more on national ads because they can't buy the spots they want in target markets -- particularly in states like FL, OH and VA where it seems like McCain would be desperate to win, but where they're investing proportionally less than Obama.  

  •  No Message McCain (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Spud1, givemhellHarryR, raincrow

    Let them spend all of their money where ever they want - when you have no message of improving my life you are just beating your head against the wall.

  •  It ain't over till it's over. (0+ / 0-)

    Obama has run a very smart campaign so far, but I'll continue to be extremely nervous until we know for sure he's headed to the Oval Office.

  •  As to no. 4: Maybe they know they are gonna lose (0+ / 0-)
  •  Like to see Obama run ads in NE, SD and ND, too. (0+ / 0-)

    They are relatively cheap ad buys and I think these States are close [in NE Omaha's one electoral] to turning. It will help Democrats downticket as well.

    The 50 State strategy works, thanks to Howard Dean! Donate!

    by shpilk on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:02:25 PM PDT

  •  I am glad to see WA is not on the list (0+ / 0-)

    Obama signs and bumper stickers are sprouting up like weeds here!

    Save the parrots--drink shade-grown coffee!

    by oscarsmom on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:04:06 PM PDT

  •  Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

    By my reckoning, McCain has spent at least $10 million on tv ads in PA alone, one of the select few he's been competitive with Obama in that regard, and what has he got to show for it? He's down 14pts.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:07:38 PM PDT

  •  expect a big last minute blitz from the RNC !!! (0+ / 0-)

    They are already saying this - they say Obama peaked to early. Lets better prepare for a blitz. They will play Rev Wright, Ayers, Bidens and Hillary's "not ready" none stop the last two days to turn the table. We need a preemptive and a rapid response TV team. I am convinced that they have a number of TV ads already ready to launch.

    •  I'm sure Obama has it covered. (0+ / 0-)

      If nothing else, I have learned to trust his braintrust.  Besides, the RNC needs to go local to prevent a Dem Supermajority.  The DNC is probably focusing on local states and races because Obama is outspending both McCain and the RNC by himself.

      We have done the impossible, and that makes us mighty.

      by TheStormofWar on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:19:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the last minute blitz will work at some level (0+ / 0-)

        they will come up with a racial economy terrorist Iraq surge patriotic stinking mix - lets hope that it is going to be so over the top that it will backfire and Obama wins by 60% - but it could also come down to a 269:269

  •  Difference column? (0+ / 0-)

    It would be handy to see a difference between ad buys and the size of those differences.

  •  And note Colorado (0+ / 0-)

    McPainful has almost doubled his Colo ad buy.

  •  Don't compare state to state spending - (0+ / 0-)

    what an ad costs to air in one state is a lot different than another, and obviously market to market within states. A 30-second spot run at 11:00 p.m. in Presque Isle, Maine costs $25. In NY/NJ?

  •  Broadcast in NM is now toxic hell. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hhex65

    The whole state runs out of the Albuquerque media market.  When I was a poll worker in 2006 November a lady brought her ballot back, wanting to know if there was a mistake.  She couldn't find Heather Wilson & Patricia Madrid (NM-01) on her ballot in NM-03.  There's LOTS of ads for all the following campaigns.  Plus all sorts of independent entities, too.

    1. Presidential race, Obama v. McCain
    1. Senate Race, Udall v. Pearce
    1. NM-01, with a lot of independent
    1. NM-02, where Teague is doing better than anyone had imagined two years ago we could do in the southern part of the state

    The only race we don't see anything about is my own Congressional district, NM-03, where Ben Ray Luján is pretty much of a lock.

    John McCain voted against health care for kids.

    by Land of Enchantment on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:25:35 PM PDT

  •  The Montana campaign has been very, very good... (0+ / 0-)

    ...to me at least.

     title=

  •  75K in South Carolina but NONE in GA?? (0+ / 0-)
    Or is GA effectively covered by the cable and national buys?
  •  McCain ads are to increase Bradley effect (0+ / 0-)

    I think their strategy is to drive the Bradley effect up or the low info voters to vote for McCain.

    There is still like 8% undecided and most of these are low info voters who will most likely vote base on what they see on the ads.

    Even their strategy of linking the economic crisis due to lending to minorities are to drive the Bradley effect up and the anger of racist whites to activate them to vote.

    McCAin is really bad---anything to win even if it divides America among racial lines.  

    I hope media does not let McCain get away with it.

    It is bad for Democracy.  Imagine if we let this strategy win.  It will be used forever.

    DONATE! McCain=Bush 3rd Term--US worst nightmare; Stop Republican obstructionism- Elect a Democratic Majority.

    by timber on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:37:53 PM PDT

  •  The McCain camp's own polling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mastergardener2k

    ostensibly suggests that Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are closer than other polling would have it, at least according to what I read somewhere today (for all I know and all I've read, it might have even been here).

    Personally, I think they're delusional. If not stupid.

    And even if the national TV buy gambit pays off, and he closes the gap in the national polls, he'll still never close the gap on the state-by-state electoral vote lead Obama has. In many ways, it's similar to how he beat Hillary.  

  •  Watch Montana. (0+ / 0-)

    Not only is Obama still dabbling there...but there other factors at play.

    Bob Barr may be dismissed by many, but Gov. Schweitzer actually gave Barr the nod for being the best candidate on Gun Control (not a small issue in Montana).  So don't think the Gov.'s word has no sway.  Considering most people who would vote on Gun Control would probably be leaning McCain, I think Barr may have more pull than first thought.

    Next, Ron Paul.  Even though he's asked to be pulled off the ballot, it may be too late.  He might be stuck on there as the Constitution Party's nominee.  If he is...then keep in mind he got 20,000 votes in the Primary there in JUNE.  That's well after McCain had the nomination, and it's also almost 4.5% of the total vote in 2004 (~450,000).

    4.5% of the total turnout isn't nothing...especially when the latest poll only shows McCain up by 8.  I don't believe that poll included Paul and Barr.  With those two candidates combined, this could be a "within the MoE" race when you consider McCain/Palin's flailing lately.

    Also, as Kos has pointed out in this post, Obama keeps advertising there.  It's cheap, and I think Obama's group sees the numbers above and is just seeing if lightly watering it will move anything.  If it does, look for a small push closer to election time.

    All this is backed up by the awesome Gov. Schweitzer pushing a VERY progressive ajenda in Montana and succeeding pretty handily.  I'll bet there are some undecideds thinking "Maybe this ain't so bad."

    That's quick and dirty.  I'm hopefully we get a decent poll out of Montana which includes Paul and Barr, because that will show us where the state really stands.

    (note, if Paul got off the Ballot I think it's not nearly as likely since I believe he's got more pull than Barr does)

    "Every man is guilty of all the good he did not do." ~Voltaire

    by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:44:59 PM PDT

  •  In St. Louis, I saw 3 90-second Obama ads (0+ / 0-)

    in one half-hour newscast (at least, I assume they were 90 seconds--they were REALLY long, so long that dd said "is this an infomercial?" lol).  I just flipped on the tv (almost two hours later) to see one of the ads running again.

    The ads were ALL positive and ALL on economic issues.  I have also been seeing a great health care ad from the campaign--at least once every time I turn on the tv, which isn't often, so the commercial must be running all. the. time.

    McCain ads during the same newscast?  Zero.

    (This was KMOV, channel 4, for anyone who was wondering)

    "If all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future, or you're not ready to articulate it."--John McCain, 2000

    by jenesq on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:17:34 PM PDT

  •  Obama ads on TV (0+ / 0-)

    If Obama isn't spending money on national ad buys, why am I seeing Obama ads on TV in Oklahoma?

  •  I wonder if McPalin people pretended... (0+ / 0-)

    ...to pull out of Michigan, hoping to fake the Obama campaign into cutting way back on ad buys there.

    License they mean, when they cry Liberty! - Milton

    by Rocco Gibralter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 06:52:15 PM PDT

  •  Texas (0+ / 0-)

    I had an Obama campaign ad come on my TV in central Texas earlier.  Odd.

  •  just saw my first POTUS ad in south Kansas (0+ / 0-)

    On KAKE ABC during Pushing Daisies. Probably aimed at Missouri.

    It was an Obama tax plan clarification ad. Says no tax increase for incomes under a "quarter million", and triple the McCain tax cut for middle class.

  •  Your 7 points. My 7 responses. :D (0+ / 0-)

      1.  National buys are easier pickings since the RNC can help fund these while they let McCain's coffers ebb and flow while covering the costs of State level buys. I suspect the RNC will soon have no choice but to make the last National buys in a mass push for the wirst week of November and then throw significant cash to the State level Congressional races, thus leaving McPalin to the wolves.

      2. Two friends hitting the bricks in Ann Arbor and Detroit report to me that McCain's offices are closed.

      3. Spending money in loser states gives the impression to Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Republicans that there's something to hold on to. Palin's still keeping them happy and spending money there means contributions prior to 2010 and 2012 will likely increase. They're hedging for long-term cash.

      4. Like I said in #3: The cash is not for the short term. They're getting ideas for a bulwark effort in 2010 and 2012. Hoping to see a President Obama failing to deliver in 2.5 years, they hope we'll all be out of cash and unable to fund the DNC over the next few years. Fundraising will be key these next two years, believe me.

      5. Minn. rules. 'Nuff said. ;)

      6. McCain's hopes for Indiana are coming a day late and a dollar short. Field efforts are getting a lot of hopeful responses from door-knocking and the phones. Anyone in Ind. with a free hour or two should really vol. That's a state that could make all the difference in the region. Especially when it's so close to Ill.

      7. I just love Montana. :) That's the PNW in me though.

    "Hew out of the mountain of despair A Stone of Hope." -Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Patch Adam on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 03:21:43 AM PDT

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