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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Culberson (R) 48
Skelly (D) 40

Kos wrote earlier that the NY-29 poll represented some of the best polling news we have this week. That's true, but there are other polls showing some promising news for Democratic candidates, and this is one of the very best.

Democratic candidate Michael Skelly trails incumbent Republican John Culberson by eight points, which may not seem impressive at first blush...until you process just how Republican this district is.

The district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1966, when it was won by future president George H.W. Bush. The district gave current President Bush 69% of the vote in 2000, and 64% in 2004. With a PVI of R+15.6, this district stands as the 36th-most Republican in the nation out of 435.

This district has not even been seriously contested since 1970, much less seen a Democrat polling within single digits - but less than four weeks before the election, Michael Skelly is right there, and he has the incumbent Culberson below 50% to boot.

Skelly enjoys superior favorables to Culberson (40/27 fave/unfave, to 43/38 for Culberson), and is very nearly tied with the incumbent among unaffiliated voters (Culberson leads 46-41). In addition, Skelly has proven one of the best fundraisers of all Democratic candidates this cycle, having consistently outraised Culberson this year.

This race is almost certainly going to go Culberson's way, but no Democrat in four decades has stood as good a chance as Skelly does of taking the upset.

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Seventh Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            132 (33%)
Republicans          156 (39%)
Independents/Other   112 (28%)

18-29                 68 (17%)
30-44                132 (33%)
45-59                120 (30%)
60+                   80 (20%)

White                312 (78%)
Black                 28 (7%)
Hispanic              49 (12%)
Other                 11 (3%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Culberson? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 15%         28%         27%         11%         19%

MEN                 17%         31%         25%         11%         16%
WOMEN               13%         25%         29%         11%         22%

DEMOCRATS            8%         17%         39%         16%         20%
REPUBLICANS         22%         40%         14%          6%         18%
INDEPENDENTS        14%         27%         28%         11%         20%

18-29               13%         25%         31%         12%         19%
30-44               17%         30%         25%          9%         19%
45-59               16%         28%         25%         11%         20%
60+                 16%         29%         27%         11%         17%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michael Skelly? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         27%         20%         11%         29%

MEN                 11%         25%         23%         13%         28%
WOMEN               15%         29%         17%          9%         30%

DEMOCRATS           21%         39%         11%          5%         24%
REPUBLICANS          6%         17%         29%         18%         30%
INDEPENDENTS        12%         26%         20%          9%         33%

18-29               15%         31%         17%          9%         28%
30-44               11%         24%         25%         14%         26%
45-59               12%         26%         20%         11%         31%
60+                 13%         27%         19%         10%         31%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Michael Skelly the Democrat or John Culberson the Republican?

                   CULBERSON   SKELLY      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         40%         12%

MEN                 51%         39%         10%
WOMEN               45%         41%         14%

DEMOCRATS           10%         79%         11%
REPUBLICANS         82%          6%         12%
OTHER               46%         41%         13%

18-29               44%         43%         13%
30-44               52%         37%         11%
45-59               49%         39%         12%
60+                 48%         40%         12%

WHITE               56%         33%         11%
BLACK                5%         77%         18%
HISPANIC            24%         61%         15%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         39%          3%          7%

MEN                 55%         38%          3%          4%
WOMEN               47%         40%          3%         10%

DEMOCRATS           13%         82%          3%          2%
REPUBLICANS         85%          5%          2%          8%
OTHER               49%         36%          5%         10%

18-29               48%         42%          3%          7%
30-44               55%         37%          3%          5%
45-59               51%         38%          3%          8%
60+                 50%         39%          2%          9%

WHITE               58%         31%          4%          7%
BLACK                4%         93%         -            3%
HISPANIC            32%         58%         -           10%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:19 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  i sthe Red blleding out of Texas (4+ / 0-)

    as well? McLate best confine himself to Arizona so he doesn't suffer the humiliation of losing his own state.

    it tastes like burning...

    by eastvan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:23:36 PM PDT

    •  I wonder how many GOP candidates just want (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285, Randall Sherman

      this over? So their suffering can end and they can go back to whatever it is Republican's do when they are not screwing things up.

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:26:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Slowly but surely (5+ / 0-)

      The demographics are changing down here.  Texas isn't quite a swing state yet, but it will be within the next few election cycles.  And it's never been as deep red as Bush's success here might have misled people to believe.  The presidential race was actually relatively close in 1996, if I remember correctly.  We still have a ways to go, but we're getting there.

      •  Texas? (0+ / 0-)

        I have two questions:

        1. Really?  and
        1. Really really?

        "People should not be afraid of their government; governments should be afraid of their people." --V

        by MikeTheLiberal on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 05:22:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Dumb shit W. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          is not exactly representative of the majority of residents of Texas, thank you.  His big moneyed buddies and family members took us down a one way road to hell.  The day W. arrived in DC and bullied the sheep in his party to climb on board his train straight to financial hell has little in common with the politics and ethics of more than just a few Texans.

    •  actually I think we should hammer Arizona (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      just so he DOES suffer it...that would be rich.

      I wish I had more money than the tens or so I can throw at things. If I did, it would be gone soon though. Arizona, Seals, Burner, now Texas. Not to mention Prop 8. That makes me sad; if monied people don't get on the ball the bigots will win in California (from where I am). All those nice homosexuals I used to hang with, work with, have working for me, still won't get to call themselves husbands or wives, still won't have the rights accorded thusly. That totally sucks. Marriage isn't for me, but it should be a choice for everyone.

      "It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

      by mieprowan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:35:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This was my CD growing up! (4+ / 0-)

    So yes, I had a George Bush representing me at one time.  This was back in the days when it was hard to find Texas Republicans in office.

    I've been away a long time but IIRC the demographics of TX-7 have changed significantly since I've been away.  I know my old neighborhoods, once Ivory Soap-white (99 44/100%) have become more diverse--and we know how the R's stances in immigration have played.

    I'd be real surprised if Skelly wins, but it's a nice thought!

    Alton IL

    The Alton Weekly Inquirer! News roundup with snark, every Friday morning right here on Daily Kos!

    by AAbshier on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:24:06 PM PDT

    •  This is my district (10+ / 0-)

      I've been giving  $ to Skelly and also to Noriega (who is absolutely AWESOME).  I think it will be difficult -- but not impossible -- for them to win.  I notice quite a few Skelly yard signs going up and we've been receiving really well-presented literature from the campaign.  Who knows... he might just pull it off.  

      Regardless, i YEARN to be released from the bondage of Culberson and Cornyn -- two of the biggest tools in Congress.  Culberson replies to my letters in which I excoriate his votes by telling me how much he believes Bush to be his hero.  I don't waste the energy on Cornyn who I utterly despise and who caused my Republican brother in law to change his registration to Democratic...  

      As to the district -- yes, it is changing.  I live in the west Memorial area, which is pretty waspy and conservative.  Yet even here, I see signs of life.  My cul de sac, which at one time featured only us as the lone Democrats, is now almost unanimously voting straight ticket Democrat.  In fact, one GOP neighbor shocked us by coming over last weekend, pointing at our bumper stickers and saying, "OK, I'm in too."  The lone holdout is the crazed old man whose daughter thinks she is giving birth to the new Christ-child (no I am not kidding... these are Palin's natural constituents).  

      All I can say is contribute time or $ if you can so we can TURN TEXAS BLUE!!!

      No way. No how. No McCain. -- Hillary Clinton, Aug. 26, 2008

      by Delilah on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:37:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Skelly has got a good (9+ / 0-)

    ground game here in Harris county and I would not count him out yet. Lot's of new democrats here.

    On another note if anyone wants to come and meet Michael, there will be a breakfast with an intimate question and answer tomorrow morning at 8:00am at House of Pies on Kirby drive.

    Wisdom does not come with age, but with understanding, judgement, and the ability to know fact from opinion.

    by 6thGenTexan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:24:17 PM PDT

    •  Apropos of nothing.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ...I noticed your user name.  My family came to Texas when it really was a whole other country (1840).  Sounds like your family has Texas roots going back that far also.

      Alton IL

      The Alton Weekly Inquirer! News roundup with snark, every Friday morning right here on Daily Kos!

      by AAbshier on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:25:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How many of those not-as-rich Texans... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Libby Shaw

      ...(the ones who have lost God knows how much money in the stock market and elsewhere in recent weeks) are willing to still back Culberson or any other Republican slimeball?  Political philosophy is one thing... seeing your money vanish is quite another.

      •  I want to believe you're right (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, Libby Shaw, Randall Sherman

        and today's stock market plunge will help.  But I recall only too well how those who were affected by Enron complained and cried... and then went back to vote for Bush in 2004. I am not talking theoretically -- I am speaking of neighbors and colleagues who worked for or were invested in Enron and live here in Houston right in the district.  Apparently, the pain was not acute enough for them to get a clue.  Maybe this time, the insanity of voting Republican will set in.

        No way. No how. No McCain. -- Hillary Clinton, Aug. 26, 2008

        by Delilah on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:41:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Culberson County is just south of me (0+ / 0-)

    this is amazing news. They just don't DO that around here.


    "It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

    by mieprowan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:27:30 PM PDT

    •  and I realize (0+ / 0-)

      that the candidate, not the county, is the Culberson referred to here. It's just sort of the principle of the thing. Close to home, very close to home.

      You will get here yet, Kossacks!

      "It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

      by mieprowan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:28:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kos, This is more important.Read. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "It's getting late early" - Yogi Berra

    by buckshot face on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:33:00 PM PDT

  •  even with google (0+ / 0-)

    I could not determine just where is THE most conservative district in the country...anyone know???

    A legacy of death, debt and deceit. He's a real hero.

    by billtmore on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:33:02 PM PDT

  •  This is great news (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, Populista, dawnt

    Skelly's district is very, very Republican.  If we're doing that good down there, then election night is going to be a very happy night for us Democrats.

  •  YEEHAW!!!! Culberson is my "representative" - (9+ / 0-)

    Yeah, if representative means sending me canned responses to my MANY, MANY letters, e-mails and postcards.  I met Skelly at the district convention and he really impressed me.  He went from one caucus table to the next speaking to each and every person he could and then he addressed our convention as well.  He is personable, intelligent and very charming (with just a hint of an Irish accent from his early childhood there).  I just hope that the Republicans are dispirited enough that they won't even go to the polls and we can make up some of the deficit in turnout.

    In the meantime, Noreiga and Cornyn square off for their 1st debate tonight.  I'm really excited because Noreiga is still not know by alot of people.

    "One of the most striking differences between a cat and a lie is that a cat has only nine lives." Mark Twain

    by fortuna on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:36:39 PM PDT

    •  What channel is the debate on? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Populista

      Wisdom does not come with age, but with understanding, judgement, and the ability to know fact from opinion.

      by 6thGenTexan on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:38:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Noriega/Cornyn is so frustrating (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Woody, Wordsinthewind

      If Noriega had more money to work with, he'd be mopping the floor with Cornyn down here.  He's not the most charismatic guy in the world, but otherwise he's the strongest candidate we've had in a Senate race in a while.  And Cornyn is such an empty suit.  Seeing him re-elected to the Senate is going to be a bitter pill to swallow if it happens, but I'm still holding out hope for an upset.

      •  I'm hoping that the motivated Dem turnout (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, Big Tex, Wordsinthewind

        coupled with the Hispanic surname playing well with even those Hispanics who don't know him will help.

        "One of the most striking differences between a cat and a lie is that a cat has only nine lives." Mark Twain

        by fortuna on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:45:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Me too. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, Wordsinthewind

          And I wouldn't doubt it if the Repub turnout down here is pretty low - the Repubs down here don't seem to be any more energized generally than the ones elsewhere, and Texas is also widely expected to be a safe win for McCain.  I'm hoping that Obama decides to pile on a bit to build his mandate, and spends some time/money down here befoer the election takes place.

          •  we have (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            a Noriega sign in our yard out here in west Texas.  The Hispanics were organized by the church ladies to vote down a ballot initiative that would have allowed sale of alcohol in our county a couple of years ago.  They did turn out to be the tipping point and now have this new found power.  Even if they wouldn't vote for Obama they will vote for a Hispanic name.  We're on a corner so we do get good coverage and will continue to think positively.

  •  Culbertson is an idiot on transit (8+ / 0-)

    issues as well.  I have a whole section devoted to his moronic anti-transit stance on my blog.

    It's Electric -

    by The Overhead Wire on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:39:05 PM PDT

  •  Skelly is a great candidate (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, Big Tex, Libby Shaw, Populista

    Wish I lived there, I'd be out there volunteering!

    John McCain traded your $10 job for $5 and called it a bargain.

    by dawnt on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 04:39:23 PM PDT

  •  would be an awesome pickup... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Big Tex, Libby Shaw, Populista, fortuna

    culberson is a reflexive empty-headed winger without an independent bone in his body...

  •  Just moved to TX-07 in August (5+ / 0-)

    2 votes for Skelly right here :)

  •  Soon (0+ / 0-)
    The facts are there
  •  I hate Culberson.. he's against Mass Transit (8+ / 0-)

    Houston barely has light rail because this fool has opposed it at all cost. He wants to keep us in gas guzzling cars. I pray that he loses. I'm in Al Green's district but I'm sure I can help out by donating or something.

    Choose Hope not Hate in 2008, Reject McCain/Palin

    by HouTxLib on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 05:30:08 PM PDT

  •  Get The Word Out About Skelly (4+ / 0-)

    If you live in the district (or close by) you should help get the word out about Skelly and move some of those undecideds towards him!

    The Skelly campaign is hosting a big block walk across the district this Saturday morning. There's a BBQ afterward for the supporters who come out to help.

    Click here to sign up!

  •  WOOHOO!! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, Libby Shaw, Wordsinthewind

    I know I'm late, but I just got online. Wow! I didn't think Skelly was that close! Great news for our district!

    **Less than one month until the general election.**
    Just a reminder.

    asdfcktehAP - A toast to droogie!

    by Spathiphyllum on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 06:10:52 PM PDT

  •  D's look highly over sampled! MORE... (0+ / 0-)

    Only a 6% republican advantage looks a bit off the charts to me.

  •  Anyone watching TX Senate debate? (0+ / 0-)

    Choose Hope not Hate in 2008, Reject McCain/Palin

    by HouTxLib on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 06:33:48 PM PDT

  •  Why Obama has to go to Texas (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If the Big O has the election locked in the last week, he should spend a day or two in TX to get the vote up and out.  He might not win, but he may well pull a few extra reps in.

    •  He has it locked now (0+ / 0-)

      Obama needs to turn his attention to his mandate, piling up his national vote total, carrying 40 or more state, bringing along a Congress that will support his initiatives.

      Obama is leading now in every "battleground" state that his campaign listed back in the summer, or at the most conservative measure, he's polling within the margin that his ground game can convert to wins. It is time now to move into new battlegrounds like West Virginia, Texas, and the rest of the South.

  •  Was polled (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, Libby Shaw, SpawnOfJerry

    I, too, live in District 7 and was polled earlier this week.  I'm seeing more Democratic signs in traditionally Republican areas than I have ever seen. Lots of young - and not so young - folks have Skelley bumper stickers. Based on what I see and hear, Skelley will do better than Obama here.
    If Obama can get 45%, Skelley should win...

  •  My hometown (0+ / 0-)

    I grew up in this district and still have family there (I got my mom to say she'll vote for Skelly. I haven't been able to budge anyone else). In 2000, I was a senior in high school and Culberson gave a talk to all of the seniors taking the Government class in the school district...I don't remember his speech, but I do remember my fellow classmates hammering him on his gay rights stance! It made me hopeful for the future.

  •  redistricting helps Skelly. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brownsox, Libby Shaw

    Redistricting took part of the Montrose from Shelia Jackson-Lee.  In the last election, Culberson won about 60% of the vote over an under-funded 1st time candidate, Jim Henley.  Skelley has a great opportunity to turn this district blue.  Culberson hasn't made too many new friends with his opposition to light rail in the city and his buffoonish remarks about NASA.  Skelley also has beaucoups of his own funding to put into the race in these last few weeks.  

  •  Actually .... (0+ / 0-)

    "The district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1966"

    The district hasn't been represented by a Democrat since it's been a district. Prior to Civil Rights laws, all Harris County congressmen were elected countywide. When forced to draw districts, this was one of the first electoral indicators of Republican support in the area in the midst of a lot of old guard conservative Democratic establishment. The previous district 7 wasn't even in southeast Texas.

    The elder Bush still lives in the district. So think about it - Bush-43 will have Chet Edwards (D) as his Congressman. How sweet would it be to give both Bush's a Democratic congressman for Christmas? Personally, I can think of no better, more kindhearted gesture.

  •  I just received an anti-Skelly flyer in the mail (0+ / 0-)

    courtesy of the Republican Party of Texas. The front cover shows three wind turbines with the caption "We need to harness the wind. . .We need to put an end to hot air as well."

    First it claims Michael Skelly received "money from extreme liberals, support for extreme liberals."  EXTREEEEEMMMME!  "Barney Frank of Massachusetts, one of the most liberal [GAY] members of Congress, gave money to support Skelly, whose first vote would be to elect San Francisco's [EXTREME LIBERAL!] Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House."

    It goes on to say he "took taxpayer subsidies to enrich himself and his business" by filing "for mutiple tax exemptions (paid for by taxpayers), and benefitted from mandatory wind energy purchases by utitlites (paid for by electric ratepayers), then he turned around and sold it to a foreign energy company."  [They're jealous they didn't think of that first.]

    Finally, it states that he's "profiting from the wind policies he promotes.  Skelly gave money to Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, who fought to keep a $500 million project going for Skelly's company."  [The project they are referring to is a wind farm in McLean County.  Good for Dick Durbin, I say.]

    It concludes with:  "Michael Skelly.  Just Another Liberal Democrat Politician. . .He's Full of Empty Promises. [Dude, that doesn't even make sense.]  

    They must be running scared to go through such trouble.  Poor Republicans.

  •  He can scare McCain the most by competin in Texas (0+ / 0-)

    and AL, MS, TN, MT, SD, and dare I say it a state that can flip to Obama, Arizona.

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