Rumor has it there is another SHOCK POLL on the DrudgeReport. To those of you that are worrying yourselves silly right now I ask you one question.
Did you really think Drudge was going to make it until Tuesday without finding one poll that would show McCain in the lead?
UPDATE: I'm a little more skeptical after reading this on drudge
The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling.
Not quite sure how the three day average holds steady yet McCain took a 1 point lead for the day. Although Zogby polls half at night half the next afternoon for his daily polls. So if he's only talking about half a daily sample taken on Halloween night Egads!!!
For those of you that are worried and exhibiting "chicken little" tendencies do you not regularly read 538.com
First from Nate Silver at 538.com talking about the Zogby SHOCK POLL.
There are a couple of significant problems with this.
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
Even more important than this when pollsters talk about Margin of Error in most polling the confidence interval is 95%. What this means is that for any give poll 95% of the time that poll will fall within the margin of error. 95% doesn't seem so bad, in fact, it means one out of every twenty polls will have their numbers fall outside the margin of error
1 in 20. Doesn't sound like much but consider this there are at least 8 daily trackers out there according to 538.com. So roughly once every three days one of these tracking polls will have a daily poll that is essentially worthless and outside the MOE. Even this is not that big of a deal considering most of these tracking polls average out their numbers over 3 days.
Basically John Zogby got his hands on a daily poll that in all likely hood landed itself outside the margin of error. What would any good businessman do when given a lemon? That's right folks he'd turn it into a SHOCK POLL and gather up all the free buzz and publicity that he could for his business.
I've got two more thoughts on this subject. The first thought is this
the second thought comes from Nate Silver at 538.com
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).
OK. I lied. I've got one more thought. If this poll is really going to stress you out for the next 4 days you're going to need to distract yourself from this poll and others so might I recommend.
Volunteering
Phonebanking or Calling
Canvassing