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is not a serious pollster. I was waiting tonight for that leaked poll result to Drudge and it never showed.

At the risk of being accused of not writing a diary, I give you Zogby's latest (O 49.5, M 43: One night is not a trend...).

Yeah, and Zogby is not a pollster: For those who are wondering why I am bothering this, this non-diary is a response to last night's Concern trolls.

I would write more, but I think this is 'nuff said.

Originally posted to Citizen Rat on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:08 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip jar for not a diary (3+ / 7-)

    And no-I won't delete this.

  •  One day result 52O-42M (0+ / 0-)

    The jerk kept me up all night.  Instead of admitting his errors he talkes a shot at us "bloggers".  Anyway, I will sleep like a baby tonight.

    Thx

  •  Trying to be fair to Zogby (0+ / 0-)

    Friday was Halloween and of course the Dems were partying hard (since they have the most fun anyways), so he got bad sample one day.

    Did I try too hard there!

  •  I love this Zogby quote (0+ / 0-)

    "Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

    Yeah thats why he couldn't leak it to drudge quick enough last night.  Looks like he got worried his poll would lose all credibility and magically a ten point margin for Obama today.

  •  please stop commenting in here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fcvaguy, trashablanca, Marcus Tullius

    as though it were a diary worthy of consideration.  posting non-diaries like this should totally be discouraged.  and this one should be deleted.

    I would write more, but I think this is 'nuff said.

    no; no, it isn't.  and i love the way you proclaim your unwillingness to abide by site rules.  such a charmer!
     

    "Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise." Thomas Paine, Common Sense

    by Cedwyn on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:15:53 PM PDT

  •  Zogby IS a serious pollster... (0+ / 0-)

    ...he's just a little too enamored of the media spotlight. He called the 1996 Presidential race within a tenth of a point. He was the ONLY pollster to call the 2000 popular vote for Gore. He had Kerry about 2 points too high in 2004, which is why he called that one wrong. Back then, people were complaining that he was in the tank for the Democrats.

    He's very confidant and he likes to talk to reporters. On the other hand, if you read what he actually said, rather than the part breathlessly reported by Drudge, et alii, he qualified the Friday results considerably.

    Nate Silver explains Zogby's method very clearly over at 538, if you want more technical details about Zogby's approach to partisan weighting, which is what is responsible for both his accuracies and inaccuracies.

    Polling on holidays is often wildly inaccurate, which probably explains his Friday result.

  •   (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MTmofo, C Dawgg

    We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine,

    And the machine is bleeding to death.

    by Marcus Tullius on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:31:59 PM PDT

  •  not only not-a-diary, but also... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MTmofo

    ...already diaried many times (and some of those were also non-diary diaries)

    up/dn/down/umop
    Michelle Bachman: nutty even by wingnut standards

    by PaintBoy on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:36:46 PM PDT

  •  Listen... (4+ / 0-)

    Is anyone else getting really sick of seeing well-meaning people called "concern trolls?" I'm pretty sure the FAQ says that a concern troll is someone who is pretending to be a Democrat and brings up false concerns in order to cause chaos and smear a candidate, not someone who is genuinely worried. Lately it seems that anyone who isn't jumping up and down and screaming that everything is wonderful and there are no problems or potential issues to be worried about twenty four hours a day, anyone who is ever even a little bit worried about anything, is unfairly called a troll. Stop it. It's a jerky thing to do. You can be as optomistic as you want. That's wonderful. I'm optomistic about this election, too. You don't need to be awful to people who naturally tend to worry about things. Is their worring going to make Obama lose? No? Then stop calling people trolls when they are not.

  •  Sorry you all missed the point (0+ / 0-)

    Firstly, before anyone labels me a concern troll, simply go back and look at my other diaries.

    Secondly, if you bothered to follow the links, you would see that this hadn't been diaried before specifically (unless I missed it). I was calling to people's attention something i thought was interesting, but did not require a lot of words.

    To wit, the obviously glaring point that the purity trolls who HR'd me missed was that Zogby had sensationalized a non-trend last night.

    I thought a few people might bet a bit of psychic satisfaction from this point.

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