I imagine that Republicans in New York are looking at the news from upstate and singing
Oh we got trouble my friends
oh yes we have trouble right here in upstate
with a capital T and that rhymes with B
and that stands for BLUE.
Okay, maybe not, but they have to know that there is a pretty good chance that there will be very little red left come November 5th. Below the fold is a quick rundown of the latest news in the hot House races – a lead in to my participation in the Election 2008 Live Blogging Project. (Many thanks to The Albany Project for information and links.)
UPDATE: Before we talk House Races, I just wanted to post here the link to the Albany Project's Breaking News - GREAT results from the latest Siena polls! (Thanks to lipris for posting the link in the comments.)
Now back to your regularly scheduled House Race discussion, already in progress.
NY-03
Graham Long, bless his heart, doesn’t look old enough to drive a car, but at age 25, represents the amazing future of the Democratic Party. He’s running against incumbent Peter King in the heart of Long Island, a lone strip of red in a sea of blue. CQ Politics calls this one Safe Republican, which may be partly based on King’s 16 years as Nassau County’s man in DC. Even Newsday doesn’t give much hope for Democrats here. Voter registration slightly favors the GOP here, but I can’t imagine this crowd’s any more pleased with the Bushies than we are upstate, and perhaps Graham will benefit. If not, I would encourage him to not give up. His day will definitely come.
NY-13
The story here is simple. Current representative Vito Fosella is convicted of DWI in Virginia and awaits sentencing. Party stalwarts endorse third-party candidates over Straniere. Between October 15 and October 28, Mike McMahon raised $105,348 to Straniere’s $15,600. And the Staten Island Advance has overwhelmingly endorsed our guy. I like our chances.
NY-20
Kristen Gillibrand pulled a shocker in 2006, beating a sitting representative, John Sweeney. And while it is a traditionally conservative (read: old money) district, it says something about the organization when the best they have to throw at it is Sandy Treadwell. Ol’ Sandy’s tried everything, from putting his campaign headquarters across the street from Kirsten’s, to pulling out her resume and trying to demonize her work on the Phillip Morris account, to flat out lying about her record. Meanwhile, Gillibrand’s been able to stay generally positive, talking about her excellent constituency services and her votes against the bailout. Her most negative ads have drawn the connecting line between Treadwell and Bush. She’s got plenty of money for these last few days, and Treadwell looks, well, desperate. While I was worried a month ago, I’m less so now.
NY-24
Another creatively gerrymandered district that, like the 20th, skirts the bigger cities in upstate NY, offered a similar shocker in 2006 when Arcuriwon back the district for Democrats after nearly 60 years. Arcuri’s got some additional challenges, as the Oneida Nation is located in this district (which means Arcuri’s got more foreign policy experience than Caribou Barbie!), and they can make or break an election. Unfortunately, our guy indicated in a debate that it’s hard to negotiate with them, and that could cost him some votes. Of course, Hanna agreed, and it’s possible that for the Nation, it will be a lesser of two evils vote. On the plus side, Arcuri’s got endorsements from the Syracuse Post-Standard and Hillary. All Hanna’s got is an accusation that Arcuri’s gone negative. Pot, meet kettle.
NY-25
Hillary was in Rochester last week at a GOTV event, which is more good news for Dan Maffei, who has been fundraising like a madman and appears to be making strides against the long established GOP stronghold. He was a contender in 2006, and this could really be his year. The Republicans had to put up their second choice, after their first choice bailed for health reasons. Already behind the eight-ball, the lack of support from the NRCC just compounds Sweetland’s problems. Finally, on October 21st, CQ Politics upgraded this race from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored".
NY-26
This one’s gotten strange in its last days. Alice Kryzan fought to get her name on the Working Families Party line, and even got a state judge to agree. But on Friday, a federal judge is blocking it. Of course, there’s an appeal, but this one could come down to the wire. Of course, this is only one in a series of oddities in this race, which includes the Saturday revelation that her opponent was fired for hacking into a company computer for personal gain. Nice guy, huh? Of course, he calls it ‘a mistake’. Oops, I mistakenly embezzled. I think he’s watched Office Space one too many times.
NY-29
The internal GOP memo has this as a loss for them already; Kuhl’s incompetence, plus Eric Massa's terrific organization, gives us great hope. Kuhl put his foot in his mouth with this gem: "the Democratic majority wants the American public to suffer and to hurt." Not quite as inflammatory as statements by our friends Michelle Bachman and Robin Hayes, but pretty stupid nonetheless. A win here is as big as Gillibrand’s was in 2006 – when hugely conservative districts like this turn blue, you know there’s trouble for the GOP on the state level as well.