I am pleased to predict an Obama victory, but not the massive landslide that we're hoping for. If the stars align, there are a lot states that I've got in the McCain camp that could easily go to Obama (GA, IN, MO, CO, AZ, FL). There is always a surprise in an election and I've chosen the "Live Free or Die" state as the breeding ground for McCain.
New Hampshire has managed to attract a lot of libertarian "Freedom Staters" who will want to make a message and it could be enough (with McCain campaigning there and Obama sleeping on it).
On Obama's side, the surprise is on the coast. I think he makes some serious headway into the coastal region winning Virginia and North Carolina (a state that Nate Silver at 538.com called safely in the pocket of the Republicans in early September).
Breakdown below:
Obama gets: NC, VA, MD, PA, OH, RI, VT, NY, MA, ME, CT, MI, WI, MN, ND, NM, CA, WA, OR, HI, IL, IA, DC, DE, NJ.
McCain gets: FL, NH, IN, GA, SC, TN, MS, MO, MT, AL, TX, OK, KS, NE, AR, AK, AZ, UT, NV, ID, SD, WV, KY, CO, WY, LA.
I honestly think as many as twelve of those states listed under McCain could flip to Obama.
High end prediction: Obama 412, McCain 126.
Wild Card predictions: Texas in play until very late. Mississippi is very, very close. Georgia is a recount.
What do you think will happen?