New polls this morning released by the Albuquerque Journal show that New Mexico is poised to become all blue come Tuesday night. All of New Mexico's 3 Congressional District seats are up for grabs, as is a long time held Republican Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.
Numbers below the fold.
In the Presidential Race, Obama holds an 8 point lead.
Barack Obama: 51
John McCain: 43
Other: 1
Undecided: 5
% Error: +-3
Breakdown:
Men:
O: 50
M: 44
Women:
O: 52
M: 42
Hispanics:
O: 66
M: 25
Whites:
O: 43
M: 52
Age Groups:
18-34: O: 56, M: 38
35-49: O: 43, M: 49
50-64: O: 57, M: 38
65+: O: 50, M: 45
Obama is also leading McCain in a majority of the state. Obama currently leads in North Central (70-30), Central (58-36), and Southwest (48-41) New Mexico. These include the cities of Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces. McCain currently leads in the Northwest (69-26) and the East (58-34) (aka Little Texas).
Early voting numbers look good for Obama so far. In Bernalillo County (the Albuquerque area), early voting closed with over 69,000 Democrats casting early ballots, while only 37,000 cast early ballots for the Republicans.(I can tell you right now that one of those Republican ballots was for Obama, Udall and Heinrich.)
The South has been a stronghold for Republicans over the past few years. Steve Pearce (currently running for Senate against Tom Udall) held his seat for as long as I can remember. (I have a short memory, so it could have been as recently as yesterday that he got elected there as far as I can tell ;) )
In New Mexico's Senate Seat, it is no surprise that Tom Udall will be going to the Senate taking 53% of the vote to Steve Pearce's 39%, with 8% of the voters sampled undecided. (+-3% error)
New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District is in the South, and currently the Republican Ed Tinsley is LOSING to Democrat Harry Teague 45% to 41%. This has been recently reported as a "Toss up" by many political experts, but I'm thinking it is inching towards the "Leans Democratic" column. 14% of the voters sampled remain undecided. (+-5% error)
In New Mexico's 3rd District, there is no surprise that Ben Ray Lujan is leading Republican Dan East and Independent Carol Miller 51% 23% 12% respectively. 14% of the voters sampled remain undecided. (+-7% error)
Now, this brings me to MY congressional district, NM-01. Democrat Martin Heinrich is leading Republican and Bush Buddy Darren White 47% to 43% with 10% of the voters sampled undecided. Heinrich has come under harsh fire from shadowy Right Wing PACs such as Freedom Watch, and has faced a lot of false smears, but he is holding strong thanks to our grass roots campaign here in New Mexico! (+-5% error)
All of this points to New Mexico's 5 electoral votes going to Barack Obama, sending another Democrat to the Senate, and sending 3 Democrats to congress. However, polls can be deceiving. We still need to GOTV the next three days in order to make sure that we send all 5 of these great politicians to Washington. I met a person here in Albuquerque who drove up from Austin, Texas to canvass. If you live close to Albuquerque in a really red state such as Oklahoma, Utah, or Texas, take some time and drive to the nearest Obama office in town. We need all of the help we can get.
New Mexico truly is GOING BLUE!
(Diarist Note: The results are from this morning's paper. Here you can find the results online, but you must pay to be able to read.)
Update 1: Added % Errors and a breakdown by age group and location for Obama/McCain.