Much has been said and written about the apparent lack of increased turnout from young voters in this election.
It could very well be the case that, as it has happened in prior election cycles, high expectations of youth turnout will once again fail to materialize.
However, from looking at the North Carolina early voting results I have a hunch. Please follow me below the fold.
I don`t really have any hard data to support my theory, which is why I call it a hunch.
Looking at the North Carolina early voting turnout breakdowns and comparing it against 2004 exit polls, there are two things that jump at me:
- Huge african american turnout
- Age voter breakdown is significantly different from the 2004 exit polls. 18 to 29 early voting is actually a point higher than 2004 exit polls, but the 30 to 44 range is really off, comping a full 11.5 percentage points below the 2004 exit poll number, while the 45 and higher number is a full 9 points higher.
Could it be that both anomalies above are explained by the same underlying factor?
Could it be that the huge increase in african american turnout is skewed towards older voters, who may have a deeper perspective of the historic perspective of this election?
Could it be that this huge increase in african american turnout is actually masking a decent surge in youth turnout? If my theory is correct, it is actually pretty impressive to have the under 30 vote comping one point ahead of 2004 exit polls.
Thoughts?