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Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 51-45. All trackers are data from three days to five days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). Data is updated as new information becomes available. Daily posting is approximately 7:30 am EST (I hope you set your clocks back.) LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.  The last R2K poll of the election will be polled Monday and published Tuesday!

Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.

                  Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:   51 (51)    45 (44)    3         LV  Final tomorrow
Reuters/Zogby:   51 (50)    44 (44)    2.9       LV  Final tomorrow
USAToday/Gallup: 53 (52)    42 (45)    2         LV  Final
Gallup:          53 (52)    42 (43)    2         LV  Final all variations
NBC/WSJ:         51 (52)    43 (42)    3.1       LV  Final
Rasmussen:       52 (51)    46 (46)    2         LV  Final tomorrow
Diageo/Hotline:  50 (50)    45 (45)    3.4       LV  Final
DCorps(D):       51 (52)    44 (43)    3         LV  Final
Battleground:    50 (49)    44 (45)    3.1       LV  Final tomorrow
Marist:          53 (50)    44 (43)    3.5       LV  Final  
IBD/TIPP:        48 (47)    43 (45)    3.3       LV  alternate link
CBS:             51 (54)    42 (41)    3         LV
Fox:             50 (47)    43 (44)    3         LV  Final

Yesterday
ABC/WaPo:        53 (53)    44 (44)    3         LV
CNN:             53 (51)    46 (46)    3.5       LV
Pew:             52 (53)    46 (38)    2         LV  unallocated LV 49-42

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Fri, +4 Sat and +4 Sun, with a +8 Thurs sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The important number is Obama's and not McCain's [and remember the R2K number is +6, not +4!!]. At 50-51, he wins. McCain will close but he will not win, and this is why (R2K data):

Note that there's only 1% undecided (the rest are third party.)

This is the pollster.com tracker graph from this morning:

The markets have new lows for McCain. IEM was 10.3 last night, and Intrade was 11.0 last I checked.

From USA Today:

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its "traditional" model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted -- including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup's "expanded" pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates'  current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

That 55% is the highest Obama number I can remember seeing.

From Gallup:

Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.

From NBC/WSJ:

"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.

"This poll has all the earmarkings of an electorate that has reached an opinion that Barack Obama would be a good president," Mr. Hart said. "The uncertainties [about Sen. Obama] that were so prevalent early in the year have just melted away."

From the ABC/WaPo poll:

After nearly two years of ads, rallies, debates and barnstorming, Obama is up 54 to 43 percent among likely voters, in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. And the ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7 percent heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.

and

Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy (back up to 15 points) and beaten back a challenge on taxes (he's +11 there). On handling an unexpected major crisis, what had been a double-digit McCain lead to start the fall campaign, is now a 6-point advantage for Obama.

And on the measure that most often correlates to turnout, enthusiasm, Obama holds a massive 26-point advantage in deeply enthusiastic support. In late October of 2004, George W. Bush held a nine-point edge over John F. Kerry on this metric.

We covered the Pew poll late yesterday afternoon. Their final conclusion?

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008.

A slew of other polls joining NBC/WSJ and those above should be out today. Keep an eye out for them, but look at the Obama 50-54 numbers and the McCain 44-46 numbers. McCain will increase but not catch Obama, whose numbers are steady. And Sarah Palin will need to ponder her future in light of her heavy unfavorables. From CNN:

CNN's new poll suggests that a majority of Americans have a favorable view of both presidential candidates, with 61 percent giving a thumbs up for Obama and 56 percent for McCain.

But the same is not true of their running mates, Democratic Sen. Joe Biden and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.

"Six in ten have a favorable view of Joe Biden, but the public is split right down the middle on Sarah Palin. And Palin's unfavorables have been growing — eight points higher than early October and more than twice as high as they were when she was first introduced to the public in late August,"Holland said.

Massive fail.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:26 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  When is Ras gonna release his numbers? (0+ / 0-)
  •  yay...last day of poll watching! gotv (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeremyA

    Real Obama: One Wife, One Car, One House, Two Kids.

    by mysticlaker on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:27:10 AM PST

  •  5-day averages (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, dmsilev, lazybum, duha, JeremyA, jnhobbs

    Here are the five day averages for the Kos poll:

    Date_  M%__  O%__  O-M_
    9/12   46.2  46.6   0.4
    9/13   45.8  47.0   1.2
    9/14   45.6  47.2   1.6
    9/15   45.4  47.2   1.8
    9/16   44.8  47.6   2.8
    9/17   43.8  48.4   4.6
    9/18   43.2  48.8   5.6
    9/19   42.6  49.0   6.4
    9/20   42.4  49.2   6.8
    9/21   42.6  49.2   6.6
    9/22   42.8  49.0   6.2
    9/23   43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/24   43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/25   43.2  48.4   5.2
    9/26   43.0  48.8   5.8
    9/27   42.8  49.2   6.4
    9/28   42.2  50.0   7.8
    9/29   41.8  50.4   8.6
    9/30   41.4  50.8   9.4
    10/1   40.8  51.0  10.2
    10/2   40.4  51.2  10.8
    10/3   40.0  51.2  11.2
    10/4   40.0  51.6  11.6
    10/5   40.0  52.0  12.0
    10/6   40.2  51.8  11.6
    10/7   40.6  51.4  10.8
    10/8   40.8  51.4  10.6
    10/9   40.6  51.4  10.8
    10/10  40.4  51.4  11.0
    10/11  40.2  52.0  11.8
    10/12  40.0  52.4  12.4
    10/13  40.2  52.2  12.0
    10/14  40.6  52.2  11.6
    10/15  41.0  52.2  11.2
    10/16  41.8  51.6   9.8
    10/17  42.0  51.0   9.0
    10/18  42.4  50.8   8.4
    10/19  42.6  50.2   7.6
    10/20  42.6  50.0   7.4
    10/21  41.8  50.4   8.6
    10/22  41.6  50.8   9.2
    10/23  40.8  51.4  10.6
    10/24  40.4  51.6  11.2
    10/25  40.2  51.4  11.2
    10/26  41.0  50.8   9.8
    10/27  41.6  50.6   9.0
    10/28  42.8  50.0   7.2
    10/29  43.8  49.8   6.0
    10/30  44.4  50.2   5.8
    10/31  44.4  50.8   6.6
    11/1   44.6  50.8   6.2
    11/2   44.8  50.8   6.0
    

    These numbers are derived using the daily percentages and sample size for five days going back from the listed day on each line.  The total sample size ends up being around 1800, which should have a margin of error below the 3% for the three day rounded numbers (2.3% if the formula I was given is correct).  The earliest numbers will be slightly stale, but this five day average helps to show more general trend movements by smoothing out noise present in shorter samplings.

    Here is the chart generated on Sunday.  Sorry, but no Monday value included here. This chart really does show that the tightening over the last two weeks is not Obama loosing any support but just soft Republicans holding their noses and moving to their party's candidate.

    R2K-5D-081102

    As a final note, for the last several days someone has always been replying that the sample time is too long for this late in the game.  Maybe it is, but the whole idea of this chart from the beginning was to show a smoothed value.  What has actually surprised me is how close the 3-day and 5-day values have tracked.  As an example, yesterday, Obama had 51.3 on the 3-day and 50.8 on the 5-day while McCain had 44.3 on the 3-day and 44.6 on the 5-day.  This really is a testament to how stable the race has been when adding two extra days to the sample only moves the values by half a point.

    •  I think it's great (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha, JeremyA, jnhobbs

      your low sensitivity graph illustrates the main point I've been making... steady Obama, variable McCain.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:30:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think the 5 day is misleading (0+ / 0-)
      ..and I will continue to say that. The fact is that polls are lagging indicators.  This is the problem I have with Nate and Sam's site.  Too much is made from the past.  While this is a fine view three months out, there is too much going on in the final days to trust numbers from last thursday.

      Sorry, it doesn't work.  It's a feel good story that I hope sticks.  However, those who smooth the lines will be much later in recognizing trends.

      No trend - not three or five day averages will ever predict the future.  Adding more days just makes us feel good (when the election is going well).

      As someone who works with these types of trends on a daily basis, I've learned to discount them.  That's why the analysis I've provided my clients usually hits the mark from previous support.  Folks tend to put too much emphasis on the past for predicting future behaviour.

      Let's say that some bombshell was noted yesterday that dramatically changed the election. You wouldn't pick that change up in today's poll.  Yes, everything we are dealing with right now is more nuanced - but the fact remains the fact.

      You can provide the feel good story, but don't pretend it can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow with any great degree.

      The Liberal Crab http://theliberalcrab.wordpress.com

      by The Liberal Crab on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:50:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  you are trying to use the polls to tell you what' (0+ / 0-)

        s going to happen. We are trying to use these to figure out what already happened.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:53:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In Theory (0+ / 0-)

          But read the comments left by most folks.  People are 'nervous' because they are projecting the 'snapshot of today' (or last couple of days) into what will happen tomorrow. Really - let's be honest..that's what we are doing.  Trying to figure out where are we headed (when you get talk about, 'if we have +7 tomorrow we will meet the pack' - that's exactly what's happening).

          Actually, your point is exactly my point.  They are lagging indicators.  They tell you what happened - agreed.  But why do we care about what happened?  Because we want to know where things are going.

          Even so, a five day trend two days out is going to discount what just recently happened.

          The Liberal Crab http://theliberalcrab.wordpress.com

          by The Liberal Crab on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:03:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  there's never anything wrong with understanding (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            StuffOfInterest

            what's happened. it adds context and helps you understand the numbers you get next. Why argue for not presenting the data?

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:15:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DemFromCT

              My argument was what basis provides you an understanding of that past.  3 Days? 5 Days? 14 Days? 6 months?

              What does 5 days tell me that 3 days doesn't? That's all. :)

              The Liberal Crab http://theliberalcrab.wordpress.com

              by The Liberal Crab on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:25:52 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  ah (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                StuffOfInterest

                i think it smooths the perturbations and makes it easier to see the "obama steady" and "McCain rising" curves.

                it's not vital... other tools allow you to see the same thing. but it is useful.

                "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:35:21 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  2012, baby (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lazybum, JeremyA, jnhobbs

    FEY AS PALIN - "So instead of going to one of those elite department stores with their liberal agendas and over-priced items and their gotcha return policies that violate your First Amendment rights, why not do your holiday shopping with us? (SHE turns to a different camera) Okay, listen up everybody, I am goin' rogue right now so keep your voices down. Available now, we got a buncha' these 'Palin in 2012' T-shirts. Just try and wait until after Tuesday to wear 'em okay? Because I'm not goin' anywhere. And I'm certainly not goin' back to Alaska. If I'm not goin' to the White House, I'm either runnin' in four years or I'm gonna be a white Oprah so, you know, I'm good either way."

    MCCAIN - "What's going on over there, Sarah?"

    FEY AS PALIN - "Oh...just talkin' about taxes." (SHE winks)

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:29:09 AM PST

  •  Heh (7+ / 0-)

    Re: Palin,

    Massive fail.

    I still have fond memories of the RedState reaction to her selection, a giant screaming headline of

    EPIC WIN

    Life in an alternate reality...

    -dms

    Having trouble finding stuff on Daily Kos? This page has some handy hints and tricks.

    by dmsilev on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:29:19 AM PST

  •  nbc wsj already out: 51-43 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, JeremyA

    Real Obama: One Wife, One Car, One House, Two Kids.

    by mysticlaker on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:29:28 AM PST

  •  It's weird that this poll is seeing this massive (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lazybum, abraxas

    late movement towards McCain and no other one is.  I hope that this doesn't start showing up in today's trackers.

    Funny how the Daily Kos poll is more McCain friendly than Gallup or the Washington Post.  I guess you guys haven't been ordering favorable numbers then ;)

    John McCain would kick a puppy to become president.

    by thezzyzx on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:30:02 AM PST

    •  pay attention to the topline (7+ / 0-)

      a 7 tomorrow would put us smack in the middle of the polls.

      Gallup and WaPo are on one side. We're more like Pew and NBC/WSJ (not a bad place to be!!) and then there's TIPP and Battleground.

      But tomorrow tells the story.

      What the R2K did is supply the internals so we could see what was happening.

      And what was happening is that Obama won this on 9/15 but McCain spent the next 6 weeks consolidating his base. That's a "lose". Elections are won in the middle.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:33:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll take a squeaker but praying for a landslide! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      batgirl71, no way lack of brain

      Do good, Seek justice - Barack Obama

      by hideinplainsight on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:53:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No way it'll be a squeaker (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mmacdDE, hideinplainsight

        Too many news organizations and pollsters have issued their final polls showing landslide and wouldn't want to eff up their reputation for the future. Plus we know all about state polls, internals, GOTV advantages, etc. It'll be comfortable at the very least.

        As long as we continue to work our tails off, that is.

        Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

        by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:27:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not necessarily (0+ / 0-)

      undecideds can't stay undecided forever, after all.  Obama's not going to win by "51/43", for example.  It would be closer to "51/47".

      Of course, everything depends upon the turnout/likely voter model used.

      Me, I think the model used on election day will be the most accurate one (you know, the one that actually counts the votes).  And I think the end result will be closer to 52/46 with 2% going to third party types.

      •  Sure they can (0+ / 0-)

        they just won't vote. At this point, they're either undecided because they don't give a damn, or they're not paying attention.

        And if you don't give a damn and/or aren't paying attention, you're not likely to put out an effort to stand in line and vote.

        My bet is the numbers will be slightly higher for Obama, because McCain supporters might be so discouraged they stay home, and those undecideds won't even bother to vote.

    •  It isn't really massive movement (0+ / 0-)

      toward McCain, because Obama's numbers aren't dropping significantly. In terms of differential, we're above some (IBD/TIPP, Fox, Hotline, Ras), and below others. It's a good and useful poll. Thanks to Kos and Dem from CT for doing it.

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:22:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Frank Luntz throws in the towel (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, JeremyA

    "I cannot foresee a scenario in which John McCain is elected president of the United States."

    BBC Interview 11.01.08

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:31:11 AM PST

  •  Wink harder. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jonathan
  •  It's all good, it's now gotv time (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeremyA

    The national polls all tell the same basic story.  The race has been pretty steady.

  •  This slightly, just slightly decreases my anxiety (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoff2, JeremyA

    and for the life of me, why WHY would 44% of American voter chose Grampy?  I do not get it and never will, no explanation makes sense.

    Voted Early - GOTV for Obama!

    by juslikagrzly on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:33:37 AM PST

  •  I will be so happy when we can stop watching (6+ / 0-)

    polls :o)

    John McCain has decided that he can't beat our ideas so he decided to just make up some ideas and run against those!
    ~Barack Obama

    by Muzikal203 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:34:58 AM PST

    •  One more day of polls... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeremyA

      ...the only one that counts.

      I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it. -- Terry Pratchett

      by WestWind on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:36:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, Rasmussen is going to do a daily tracking (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slinkerwink, bwintx, JeremyA

      poll of the president elect.

      But, even after the election has come and gone, our daily tracking will continue. Rasmussen Reports will release final updates from our Election Night polling on Wednesday morning. The next day we will release our first, daily tracking results of the President-Elect and the transition to a new Administration.

      I want this poll madness to stop.

  •  I hope the Republicans tout Palin for 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, JeremyA

    The love from the base for Palin is good for Democrats.  The Republicans are going far right with the fundies and Main Street types splitting.

  •  I'm actually surprised at how high (0+ / 0-)

    the margins are in the final traditional polls out so far (8-11).  

    R2K seems to be out of line with some of the other trackers, I'm anxious to see what Ras says.

    I like Michelle more than Barack.

    by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:36:45 AM PST

    •  what are you talking about? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeremyA

      look at Obama's numbers alone in the chart, then look at McCain's numbers. Look at them separately.

      The polls are actually pretty close and R2K is not out of line.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:45:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I mean the overall movement in the (0+ / 0-)

        last few days, compared to the movement of some others, like in this graph from pollster.com

        link

        I like Michelle more than Barack.

        by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:28:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ah (0+ / 0-)

          well, as I said elsewhere watching the sausage being made isn't pretty.

          i think this is a difficult weekend to poll.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:47:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  but others polled over the weekend... (0+ / 0-)

            you have said it before...but do you poll cell phones?

            Also, I entered data at one of the largest obama phone banks yesterday.  There were maybe 10% of voters home, overwhelmingly above age 60.  And 10% is generous.  We did NV, NC, FL, MO, and VA.

            Is this enough to pick up a good poll?

            Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

            McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

            by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:07:02 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  no and Nate did a nice graphic of cell phone polls (0+ / 0-)
              in yellow

              "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

              by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:26:03 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  try again (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                duha

                "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:28:41 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  thanks... (0+ / 0-)

                  do you think this could be a factor in the swings, or do you subscribe to the theory that cell phones are not that big of a deal?

                  Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

                  McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

                  by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:31:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  My take is that all phone polls (0+ / 0-)

                    are skewed. Including cell phones might make them slightly less skewed.

                    To begin with, who answers calls they don't recognize? Those are the ones you let the machine pick up, and see who they are before you answer. Or you let it go to voicemail and then call them back if necessary.

                    Everybody I know does that.

                    So if you're calling phones, you're NOT getting a lot of people.

                    That's what I'd really want to know - how many people did they call, and what percentage of those actually picked up the call to participate?

                    My bet is a whole hell of a lot, and not many.

                    Which IMHO makes it skewed toward the less tech savvy. And that would tend to skew it toward McCain.

                  •  I think it's a 1-2% Obama advantage (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    duha

                    when you include cell phones. it's getting to be a bigger deal.

                    also, easier to poll on weekends re free minutes.

                    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:09:29 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Last one, phew! (0+ / 0-)

    I was thinking "51 O 45 M" for today...and that's what it is! Funny.

    Can't wait until tomorrow.

    The superior man...does not set his mind either for anything, or against anything; what is right he will follow. --Kongfuzi

    by free as a butterfly on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:36:55 AM PST

  •  From my SUSA Source (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, badlands, duha, JeremyA, Ohiobama

    I'm hearing Obama has small lead in FL (My guess 1 or 2 Points). He'll be tied in OH and 1 or 2 Points down in North Carolina. He's also tied in Indiana and very close in Georgia.

    •  tied in OH sucks. (0+ / 0-)

      FL and NC results seem to line up with all the other recent polls.

      It could be that my prediction of 291-247 turns out correct (Obama gets Kerry + IA,NM,CO,NV,VA, pop.vote 52-47)

      I like Michelle more than Barack.

      by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:43:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Remember that SUSA has a tendency (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeremyA

        to underestimate Obama's support.

        •  that's true, especially in south and midwest. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JeremyA

          I like Michelle more than Barack.

          by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:06:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  In Ohio, SUSA has been the most accurate (0+ / 0-)

          and right in line with UC, the other top Ohio pollster. Mason-Dixon has Ohio at McCain +2 as of Sunday.

          Ohio is a dead heat and will be through the election. Ground game may carry the state, but then again it's irrelevant.

          The Republicans have been plotting to win Ohio since 1854. Until Democrats get serious about studying the state and learning how the state operates, it will continue to be fundamentally a red state, even if the ruling party calls itself Democrat.

          •  Ohiobama, after the election, I would like to hear (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ohiobama
            more and learn more about what you said here.

            In what ways do Democrats not understand OH? What are we missing?

            You do not have to answer in detail now..too much for us all to do as we are all so busy..but what is the bottom line where Democrats are failing in OH?

            •  A few insights (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wishingwell, justmy2
              1. Small town and rural Ohio rules the state -- Ohio is one of the least urban states in the nation demographically. The Democrats consistently wear blinders about this and keep thinking they can get to Ohio through the big cities.
              1. The small towns and rural areas are reached through newspapers, almost exclusively. That is compounded by the hodgepodge of Ohio media markets, so people aren't even getting local news on TV. I hear Democratic "strategists" in this campaign tell me that "newspapers are irrelevant" which is a recipe for losing. Our Democratic congressional candidate did not even take out newspaper ads. On the other side, in Nov. 2007, a media conglomerate tied to Giuliani bought 11 county newspapers in southeast Ohio.
              1. The official Democratic Party in south Ohio most often supports national Republican candidates, whatever they say in public. We have counties that are 2 or 3 to 1 Democratic by registration that voted for Bush twice, because the Democratic machine ordered those votes. This is the betrayal that keeps on betraying.
              1. Right now we have a "Democratic" governor who is a product of the south Ohio machine. Witness his behavior in the primaries, and in the general. Strickland insisted on appearing alongside Obama at every campaign stop in south Ohio, even knowing that his presence would drive away Independent and anti-machine voters. It was pure sabotage. Nuff said.
              •  Yes OH is not PA where Philly, Pittsburgh, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Ohiobama

                and Scranton comprise most of the state's population. Also in PA, not all of the T of the state is like Alabama. The people in the T vary from county to county. Dead center of the state is Penn State and they were overwhelmingly Obama in the primary. State College is moderately liberal.
                And Harrisburg in the T is not Alabama, not at all.

          •  Mason-Dixon leans repub, UC has Obama +6 (0+ / 0-)

            so why do you keep citing those sources?

      •  I'm thinking your EV count is accurate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        duha

        I don't like to be a Debbie Downer (well aside from which, that's not my name), but I just can't see Obama with a 350+ EV landslide that some people have been touting.  I'm figuring high 200s for an Obama win.

        •  way too low - (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JeremyA

          for that to happen Mccain would have to win most of the battleground states.  Figure this

          Kerry States 252
          IA 7
          NM 5
          CO 9
          VA 13

          and you are already at 286.

          Pick up either OH or FL and you are already over 300

          and that's without NC, GA, NV, IN, MO, AZ, MT or ND

          do we still have a Republic and a Constitution if our elected officials will not stand up for them on our behalf?

          by teacherken on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:10:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I put in my post how I figure 291 (0+ / 0-)

            Kerry + IA, NM, CO, NV, and VA for 291.

            I think voting problems/difficulties cause McCain to squeak out OH and FL, and then McCain holds on narrowly IN and MO, like 538 shows.  AZ, MT, GA, and ND I don't think will be all that close.

            291 is very realistic.  Obama picking up OH for 311 EV final is also very likely.

            I like Michelle more than Barack.

            by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:16:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mmacdDE

            I'm putting Obama at between 361 and 412, with an emphasis on the high end of the scale.

            Those early voting numbers are indicative of a serious enthusiasm/GOTV gap in favor of Obama across the board.

        •  I am thinking over 300 but to be cautious and to (0+ / 0-)
          be on conservative side, I agree with you.
    •  FL ground game wins FL for Obama (0+ / 0-)

      Ohio is tough. Could go either way. Same as NC and IN.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:47:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  When do SUSA numbers come out? (0+ / 0-)

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:32:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama is up 2 in Ohio - SUSA (0+ / 0-)

      O: 48
      M: 46

      Strike one.

  •  R2K contradicts the others trackings (0+ / 0-)

    R2K tracking +4 for Obama does not reflect the true feel out there some thing has gone off in its methodology. Every other daily poll with the exception of one have Obama leading by a wider margin.

    Glad this is going to be over by tomorrow.

    •  look at the topline. (0+ / 0-)

      look at the individual numbers.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:47:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Once again there is a weekend trend for McCain (0+ / 0-)

        There are a couple of oddities to look at in R2K.  Weekend trends and possibly oversampling the south.
        Heck, all polls have oddities.  This one at least has not bounced around wildly.  6 percent national looks like where everything is converging.

        It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

        by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:44:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Understood but two consecutive +4 margins (0+ / 0-)

        for Obama raise my eyebrows--the other trackers, at least those with the largest sample sizes, are not picking this up, at least not yet.

        Hope we get at least a +7-8 tonight.

    •  Simply not true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DemFromCT, MadEye

      Compare apples to apples. R2K tracking has Obama at +6 (not +4--this is a three-day tracking poll). Pollster RCP, and CNN "poll of polls" are all between 6-7. We're right on the money. The good thing about this poll is that it's transparent and we get to see all the trends and internals.

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:35:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  R2K has had screwy internals for about the last (0+ / 0-)

      12 days or so.  They have McCain winning 35% of latinos, which is simply not reflected in any other state poll.  R2K also has McCain winning over 90% of GOPers and the crossover vote, which is also not reflected in other national or state polls.  

      When all the major national polls who have done surveys over basically the last few days are coalescing in the 8-11 point range, R2K's daily number seems off.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:31:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Let's Hope the Tried and True Stalwarts (0+ / 0-)

        are on the money, and our new national tracker has some kinks to work out. NBC/WSJ and ABC/WAPO have excellent records in forecasting the national results with their final polls. Gallup was also very close with their final LV numbers in 04 (disregard their apportionment of undecideds) and did well in previous years, if not in 2000. Of course Ras nailed it in 2004 too. If they are all right and we are wrong I will like it better!

      •  huh... (0+ / 0-)

        35 sounds about right to me...

        I have consistently seen Obama at 60-65%....and McCain from 25-30%...the other 5% have to go somewhere?

        Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

        McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

        by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:13:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  tsunami (0+ / 0-)
    that's what i want.
    a tsunami.
    a win so overwhelming..........
    a win so jaw dropping, no historical comparison
    is possible.
    a win sooooooo huge, the pundits will be left
    speechless.......
    a win soooooooooo mind boggling, the only
    word spoken will be MANDATE.........
    a win sooooo one sided that the other side will
    skulk away taking their wingnuts with them.......
    a win sooooo thrilling, that all the pundits who were wrong volunteer to retire.......

    well a girl can hope..........

  •  Last few days to watch Morning Joe (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs

    I know, I shouldn't be watching it, but I'm looking for any news when I am getting ready in the morning.  Today I was positively SAVORING his attempt to spin one poll's tightening into a McCain victory - then watching him get smacked down by one professional pollster after another.

    What about all the tightening towards Obama in the Repub states, Joe?  Like Arizona?

    •  Hilarious... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      alou73

      He is clinging to the Mason-Dixon numbers for dear life.
       I also enjoyed it when he refered to Krugman's op-ed as * hate-speech *

      " Accountability is for little people " - Hunter

      by jnhobbs on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:49:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Aside from hating America... (0+ / 0-)

        Morning Ho is afraid someone in the Obama administration just might want to find out what happened to that intern of his.

      •  That's good, though (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MadEye, Dems 2008

        As I've noted before, I want the wingnuts going into this election thinking they've got a real shot.

        I remember how those dashed hopes felt in 2000 and 2004.  Revenge is a dish best served electorally.

        •  I wonder if they still have hope (0+ / 0-)
          Has it started to sink in yet for the Republicans, that McCain will lose? Or are they still in denial? I'm not sure what the fundies think. They have all their conspiracies.
          •  Well, it's not as close (0+ / 0-)

            Most of the polls are pretty clear that Obama's going to win decisively this year, and many wingnuts really never liked McCain anyway.

            However, there have been a few polls to come along that may have raised their hopes somewhat (e.g. Zogby's idiosyncratic one-day sample last weekend that was trumpeted on Drudge) and they care what happens with Palin.  Combined with the easily-fooled nature of the wingnut, it's very possible they do, in fact, have their hopes up.

            We'll know in the days and weeks after election day: if wingnuts are screaming about voter fraud and minorities stealing elections, then they had their hopes dashed :)

          •  They are in complete denial (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MadEye

            Most of them think all of the polling outfits are in the tank for Obama, and that there are magical internal polls that show McCain pulling it out.

            A liberal is a conservative whose 401K has just been wiped out.

            by Yankee Patriot on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:31:09 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  post-election analysis - who's right? (0+ / 0-)

    It will be neat to see how the tracking polls do. Since this r2k's first time doing a national tracking poll, we'll see how their methodolgy differs from RAS/Gallup/ABC.

    One thing is for sure...It's much more sensitive than any other tracker out there. To both large upward swings, and downward swings. Whether this is sample size/demographics/other.

    I don't think Obama was ever up 14 nationally, nor do I think he is only up 4 day (with all the other evidence).

    48 hours till the answer!!!

    Real Obama: One Wife, One Car, One House, Two Kids.

    by mysticlaker on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:40:18 AM PST

  •  reverse bradley effect? (0+ / 0-)

    Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.

    Seems like that number for McCain has plummeted.  I'm wondering if there is a reverse bradley effect that is wearing off as Obama becomes more mainstream and acceptable to traditionally republican voters.

    He who throws mud only loses ground -- Fat Albert

    by c0wfunk on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:41:36 AM PST

  •  sorry, but i don't believe r2000, too many other (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ben P, IreGyre, nieddu

    polls saying something very different. something is off with r2000's methodology. even zogby says it's 7% and obama surged in yesterday's sampling. gallup says yesterday's polling was extremely, as in double digit, bullish for Obama. same with cbs, abc polling.  sorry r2000.

  •  Strange Point (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IreGyre

    People have said that the DKos poll is overly optimistic about African American and Latino turnout.

    It pegs African American turnout at 14% of the total turnout (VERY high(, but shows only a 6 point difference.

    Gallup sets African American turnout at 11% (higher than '04 but not that high) and yet has Obama up 11.

    Hmm....

    Join National Youth Rights Assocation, http://www.youthrights.org and join the youth rights revolution

    by teenvote on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:43:00 AM PST

    •  the difference is that R2K doesn't show (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      teacherken

      much of an independent lead for Obama.  Obama usually is only around 5 points ahead with independents in the R2K poll.  But in most other polls, he's got a 12-15 point lead in independents.

      I like Michelle more than Barack.

      by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:46:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  all of the circumstantial evidence say others (0+ / 0-)

        are right about independents....

        I have not heard one major Democratic or Independent endorsement of McCain outside of Lieberman.

        No Newspapers, No Politician, No College Newspapers, no Pundits, not even the debates with Independent trackers....None, Zero, Zip, Nada...Moderates and Independents have been all over Obama all cycle...

        If that is wrong, it really does say their are two Americas'.  I won't use elite...but I will use high information, low information.  Tribal conservative, and others.  Limbaugh Nation, Reality Nation.  

        It is just strange that so many endorsements have come Obama's way, but independents don't track..

        Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

        McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

        by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:17:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  R2k Geographic Weights (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SadEagle, duha
    I continue to maintain that that R2000 geographic weights are significantly flawed.  The poll continues to give the South considerably more weight than is justified by population, registered voters or historical turnout; similarly, the Midwest is significantly underweighted using the same factors.  Adjusting the poll to account for this flaw would provide a result that is more in line with the other national polls.  
    •  And TX and OK are not "the South" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha

      What's very odd is that the South doesn't include the most populous state, yet it still has a large weighting.

    •  They need to look at that (0+ / 0-)

      When you see a national poll that tracks a goegraphy, it does give you reason to pause and doubt the sampling is valid.

      It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

      by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:09:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's up with that, DemFromCT? (0+ / 0-)
      Is there any truth to this? The results really do seem odd these days given the party weighing of the R2000 poll.
      •  cph and the pollster and I disagree (0+ / 0-)

        and he/she has not responded to this 2004 CNN graph showing the South's voting weight. Note south is 32%

        BTW, I love cph's questions because they are always on point.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:23:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  DemFromCT (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ben P, justmy2
          I would have responded to this earlier had I seen it.  I do not know how CNN defines the different geographic regions (each pollster and news agency defines them somewhat differently), but obviously it is quite different from the way you have indicated that R2000 defines them.  Based upon 2004 actual results, and as R2000 defines the regions, the vote was as follows:

          Northeast: 22.2%
          South:     24.1%
          Midwest:   34.3%
          West:      19.4%

          Those data are readily available (or derivable) from any number of public sources.  I'd be happy to show you the spreadsheets that I personally keep.

          Perhaps the definitions of the regions as indicated in your writeup are not the same as R2000 actually uses.  I don't know.  But if they are, then R2000 is seriously misweighting the regions.

        •  DemFromCT (part 2) (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          justmy2
          It appears that CNN uses the census bureau defined regions.  The census bureau defines the South as including:

          DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV, AL, KY, MS, TN, AR, LA, OK and TX

          Of these, according to your write-up, R2000 re-allocates DE, DC, MD and WV to the Northeast; and it re-allocates OK and TX to the Midwest.

          TX by itself makes a huge difference, inasmuch as it accounts for 6% of the total national vote and is much more Republican leaning than the rest of the "Midwest".

    •  Did that change somewhere along the line? (0+ / 0-)

      R2K had Obama up by 14 in one single-day sample.  Has the regional weighting changed since then?  Or is the poll actually weighted by region (are we looking at some other reason for the sample sizes from various regions)?

      •  the answer is that things have not changed (0+ / 0-)

        or "the results are the results".

        I attribute it to South coming home, weak Rs coming home.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:53:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  10 pts in one week... (0+ / 0-)

          Really?

          havent we gone something like...

          14, 11, 8, 5, 4, 7,  9 , 4, 4 in the last 9 days...

          are people really that fickle?

          That being said, I did hear one contemporaneous story at the phone bank yesterday of a man who literally told the banker that he went into the booth fully intending to vote for Obama, and changed his mind in the booth.  So maybe there is something.

          If cph is right about R2K weighting inconsistent with other pollsters, that could be the reason these wild swing are occurring in R2K, but nowhere else.  

          Is this possible?  You can be my anxiety pill for the day :)

          Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

          McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

          by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:00:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  The closer (0+ / 0-)
    we get to cob 11/04/08, the better things look. We cannot afford to be complacent, obviously. But, we can and shoud be, in my estimation, be extremely optimistic.

    Common Sense is not Common

    by RustyBrown on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:45:03 AM PST

  •  Strange results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abraxas

    So let me understand this:

    Zogby has a D+2 screen and shows Obama up 7 in the last poll (with huge Obama swings last night and before).

    R2K has a D+9 screen and has Obama up 5 with only +4 on the weekend.

    Gallup, which does not screen for party ID, shows a big jump for Obama. Same with ABC/WaPo and CBS. Actually, the last ABC/WaPo had a D+6 margin and an 11 point lead for Obama.

    I figured yesterday's +4 was just an outlier. But two days in a row is harder to dismiss.

    How does R2K get such a small lead with a pro-Dem screen while other pollsters with less pro-Dem screens get a larger lead?

    Is this just statistical noise?

    •  I think so (0+ / 0-)

      There's about 10 comments about that today. It is a mistake to compare a R2K one day to a 2500 sample three day tracker.

      the one days have a huge MoE (5 for each number, McCain's and Obama's). the reason we post them is to show trends, not to fixate on the one day number. And to show which number drops off. Also.

      A +7 tomorrow changes the topline little (IOW, you need the whole sample to judge).

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:56:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  pretty scary (0+ / 0-)

    The daily kos poll will probably be the one that the freepers grab onto today like a drowning person.
    This is probably   where it will end up. A six point victory is pretty big and this will be the biggest democratic % of the vote since 1964.
    I think gallup is overestimating the democratic gap, they have it at 10%. Who cares, as long as he gets to 270.
    My guess is rasmussen will be 50-47, still pretty good.

  •  final quinnipac numbers FL, PA, OH - all good. (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 45;
    OHIO: Obama 50 - McCain 43;
    PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 42

    Democratic Sen. Barack Obama ends his historic bid for the White House with a seven-point lead over Republican Sen. John McCain among likely voters in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania, but with just a two-point, too-close-to-call lead in Florida, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

    No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:  
    Florida: Obama at 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, unchanged from October 29;
    Ohio: Obama up 50 - 43 percent, compared to 51 - 42 percent last week;
    Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 52 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 41 percent last week.

    Real Obama: One Wife, One Car, One House, Two Kids.

    by mysticlaker on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:49:43 AM PST

    •  Those numbers will help the state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slinkerwink

      average in OH and PA.  The FL numbers for the last 24 hours seem to all be Obama with a 1 or 2 point lead.

      I like Michelle more than Barack.

      by duha on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:54:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Qunn has been wrong all along on Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slinkerwink

      They had Obama doing better in Ohio than in PA or MI half the time. They've had a consistent +8 bias for Obama in Ohio all election season. They simply don't know how to poll the state -- they're regional distribution in Ohio has been totally whacked. SUSA, UC and Mason-Dixon all have Ohio as neck-and-neck. Believe it.

  •  How early do you get this data tomorrow? (0+ / 0-)
    Since a whole lot of us will be heading out to work the polls, it would sure be nice if it were possible to get the scoop earlier than 7:30.

    "I'm not a humanitarian. I'm a hell-raiser." Mother Jones

    by histopresto on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:55:44 AM PST

  •  The topline number for Obama in PA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sprhoto

    Is also very good. Almost every poll out there (save MD) is saying 52% will go for Obama. And I think Rendell and Nutter will ensure that it will be close to 53-54%.  

  •  Exclusive results from NC, specifically my house: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OleHippieChick, CaptCave

    2 votes for Obama! To me, this is a big deal because I voted for Obama but my husband isn't crazy about McCain or Obama and is all weird about telling people who he voted for. But yesterday he told us (me + 2 kids) he voted for Obama. So instead of my vote and his vote cancelling each other out, we're net 2 votes for Obama. Yay!!!!

  •  Quinnipiac polls. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, duha

    OH +7
    PA  +10
    FL  +2

    Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The Shape Of Things "Beware the terrible simplifiers" Jacob Burckhardt, Historian

    by notquitedelilah on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:03:53 AM PST

  •  One Day More! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Taz Man, notquitedelilah

    One day to a new beginning,

    there's a new world for the winning,

    Do
    You
    Hear
    The people sing?

    One Day More,
    One More Dawn.
    ONE DAY MORE!

  •  the R2k poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT
    certainly hasn't turned out to be as partisan as we might have expected/hoped, but the +4 number for the final couple of days doesn't seem to me wildly inconsistent with some of the tightening that has taken place in the battleground states in the last round of polling. We now seem to be looking at an Obama win in PA of around 6, probably narrower in VA, very very tight in NC, FL and OH, and perhaps O slightly behind in MO and IN. That seems more consistent with a national popular vote lead of 4-5 than the 10 or so that Gallup would have us believe. Ten points

    I've always thought that Obama's superior GOTV would be worth at least an extra point on top of the final polling average in the battleground states, so I do still expect him to pull through in at least PA, VA, OH, FL and NC (and I think he's already wrapped it up in IA, NM, CO and NV in early voting). That's 353 EVs, which will do me fine - but I'm thinking now that could well be as good as it gets. Remember, Bush-Dukakis was only an 8 point margin and yet Bush won 426 EVs. If the popular vote margin is really going to be +10 I'd expect to see Obama more comfortably ahead in the key battlegrounds than I have been seeing, and also moving up in the "unlikely" targets to a greater extent than he has been. This feels more like a 300-360 election than a 400+ election to me.

    •  the R2K number is 6 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha

      not 4. Just because you get to see how the sausage is made does not change the topline.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:08:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  People are not even reading the numbers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Pometacom

        They are just concerning away ...

        Okay concern mavens, tell us what Obama should do now.  I am sure he is waiting for your advice.

        Geez louise, a 6% lead going into the election and they aren't happy.  I'll take it!

        It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

        by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:11:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Huh? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DemFromCT, Pometacom
      >the R2k poll certainly hasn't turned out to be as partisan as we might have expected/hoped

      Why would anyone hope for a partisan poll before an election? "Reality-based" is what it's all about.

      •  why on earth would a poll be partisan? (0+ / 0-)

        what a strange concept.

        The interp... now that's partisan ;-)

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:15:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't want it to seem partisan (0+ / 0-)

      I want to be able to trust it, and I do. What's weird to me is that it all of a sudden (after the last debate?) swung from daily numbers in the +10 to +14 range to numbers in the +6 to +8 range [and now slightly lower.]) I wonder whether there was a methodological shift that took place then?

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:05:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no (0+ / 0-)

        just churn in the electorate as people decide.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:12:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Can you elaborate? (0+ / 0-)

          It does seem that there was a shift in the R2K poll at that time, and it was significant. You've mentioned several times, and I agree with you, that it takes an "event" of some sort to produce a meaningful shift. Was that event the third debate, do you think?

          Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

          by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:20:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think so (0+ / 0-)

            the major event was 9/15 economic meltdown, then the debates.

            I think soft Rs came home on 'redistribution' and 'Obama will be tested', the two gaffes. Not enough.

            Also a blizzard of McCain ads this week as they spent the rest of the war chest, Obama off the trail for hawaii, positive McCain coverage, etc.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:23:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Oyyy ... the concerm thread is up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deoliver47

    Concern , concern, concern

    Looks pretty damn good to me.  6% lead in this poll with the election tomorrow.

    No offense DemsInCt but it will be a relief not to have this thread anymore.  It's become the home of the concern trolls.

    It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

    by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:08:10 AM PST

    •  analysts, noofsh, analysts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha

      Bill Kristol is a concern troll.  ;-)

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:09:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  not all concern trolls, there are well meaning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DemNoir
      worriers and some handwringers who are much like Rachel Maddow whom I love. Then there are those cautiously optimistic people like myself who are far from concern trolls. Ie I predict a good Obama win but I m estimating it closer and lower than expected. But that does not make me a concern troll. As my GOTV has been great, I just have sleep deprivation and fatigue from GOTV.
    •  I don't see a whole lot of concern trolling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DemFromCT

      But I do see some thoughtful analysis and hopeful, positive commentary.

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:06:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You know what: this, noofsh, is a "troll" comment (0+ / 0-)

      You're flippantly mocking this quite thoughtful thread without apparently having read it, and insulting those who have posted on it. If you don't like it, there are plenty of other threads. I for one really appreciate the poll and welcome the perspectives of those who post in this thread, except for those who urinate on it.

      And 6% looks pretty damn good to me too.

      Michelle Bachman is an anti-American lunatic. Support Elwyn Tinklenberg.

      by porktacos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:09:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/11/3 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    should be your first link, not http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Also, this sentence

    Note that there's only 1% undecided (the rest are third party.)

    Needs that same link.

    As it stands, that phrase comes between two graphs, neither of which allow us to "note" or see the 1% figure.  The link that would allow us to "note" that would help a lot.

    Thanks for your incredible work on this for weeks, Greg!  It's the first thing I look for when I wake up at 4:30 am here on the Left Coast.  Now it's time to go over to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and start obsessing about the state-by-state polls for a while.  Better than caffeine to get me going.

    •  the link takes you to where you can (0+ / 0-)

      click the latest... and makes you look at the graphs.

      I can't do all the work for you.

      Also, when i first post, that internal link is not always functional yet.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:14:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  538 numbers are good (0+ / 0-)

      Nate did some adjustments.  He was more glum early this morning and then looked at some late new polls from yesterday and the numbers returned right back to around where they have been for weeks.

      I think we have convergence.

      Looks to me like a 6% national lead and over 300 EV's.
      Yes, there are a few tossups but they won't make or break us.

      Last day ... GOTV ... let's get these punks already.

      It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

      by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:16:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Q-Polls, Obama up in OH, PA, and FL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha

    +7 in OH, +10 in PA, and +2 in Fl
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    •  Excellent! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha

      I sense we are pulling away in Ohio and PA is holding.
      Florida is about as close as it has been for weeks.

      It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

      by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:17:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  people on the ground in FL (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        duha

        feel very good about Obama

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:19:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very good DemFromCT (0+ / 0-)

          We always knew that would be a tough nut to crack. I like the early voting numbers:

          PPP FL: Obama 50 - McCain 48 (leshrac55)

          Going to be a close one in FL...

          Obama leads early voting 56-43, and early voters supposedly make up more than half the sample.

          Link.

          http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot....

          It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

          by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:24:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  600k registered blacks (0+ / 0-)

          didn't vote in 2004. A lot of them have already voted. If he can keep McCain's margins down in Panhandle we have a chance but my fear is that racists ,especially in Northern part of Florida, are going to come out of woodwork to vote against Obama. It'll be a dogfight and I'll be surprised if Florida gets called before 11 PM eastern.

    •  I do like the PA poll, a lot as I do want PA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha
      to be in the range of around 7 because we will have very long lines with no early voting.
      We are even getting emails and letting voters know that if line by 8..you can wait and do not leave the line.

      There is a lot of chatter here that our polls may end up being open quite late because by law, in line means you can vote no matter how late that is.

    •  Do NOT believe any Quinn poll in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

      How many Ohio outliers does Quinn have to publish before people stop trusting them?  All the reliable pollsters have Ohio as near even. Even is even, good enough for GOTV.

      •  This poll probably more realistic (0+ / 0-)

        Final Ohio/U of Cincinnati Poll: O 51.7, M 45.7 (LSdemocrat)
        http://news.cincinnati.com/...
        "After allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the race stands at 51.5 percent for Obama and 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain. The poll finds that other candidates will
        receive 2.8 percent.

        These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati.

        The poll surveyed 1,308 probable voters between Oct. 29-Nov. 2. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points."
        ====================================================
        PPP showed a smaller lead.  Nevertheless, it looks like an edge in Ohio.  By all means, GOTV away!

        It's time to put the McCain-Palin punks away (GOTV!).

        by noofsh on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:38:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Univ of Cinn has it 52-46 Obama today (0+ / 0-)

        so why is this Quinn poll so far off?

        •  Good news on the UC poll. (0+ / 0-)

          We can trust the UC number.

          The difference is that UC had the race as tied or a slight McCain lead for the past six months with the undecideds breaking late for Obama. That corresponds with other pollsters and with sense on the ground.

          Quinn has had a consistent Obama +8 lead since June, with only one deviation. If you believe Quinn, there has been no change in the electorate in Ohio, which is totally absurd. Quinn just has a screwed up Ohio model that isn't producing useful numbers.

          And why celebrate Quinn's numbers if they show nothing changing?

      •  Ohio, you said Dems were not serious in studying (0+ / 0-)
        Ohio? I am curious, what basically are they missing or giving you indications Democrats are not serious about studying Ohio? I thought 50 state strategy was going well and Democrats are very serious about studying every state.

        What are we missing about OH?

      •  Ohiobama ... (0+ / 0-)

        With all respect, you keep saying all the "reliable" pollsters have Ohio dead even and all other polls showing otherwise are wrong.

        What is your reasons and evidence for saying this?

        THX

      •  Dude (0+ / 0-)

        How many times are you gona post don't trust the Q polls?  We get your opinion already, leave it alone.

  •  CNN commentary fail (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    This makes no sense:

    CNN's new poll suggests that a majority of Americans have a favorable view of both presidential candidates, with 61 percent giving a thumbs up for Obama and 56 percent for McCain.

    But the same is not true of their running mates, Democratic Sen. Joe Biden and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.

    "Six in ten have a favorable view of Joe Biden, but the public is split right down the middle on Sarah Palin.

    Clearly Biden is viewed just as favorably as Obama or McCain.

  •  MSNBC Weather Idiot (0+ / 0-)

    Just did the weather report (I write at 7:19 Central).  Predicted rain tomorrow around Norfolk and Virginia Beach.  Did concern troll thing about how "as Chris Matthews knows, those are both very Democratic areas."  

    I just sat here, stunned:  that's about as Republican an area of the Old Dominion as it gets.  Of course, we hope that Obama will peel-off some of those otherwise Republican voters and all, but over the past umpteen election cycles that's been an GOP stronghold.

    I can't believe how incredibly stupid this guy was.  Or, he's a master of straight-faced sardonic humor.

    bg
    _______________

    "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

    by BenGoshi on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:22:17 AM PST

  •  GO OBAMA! (0+ / 0-)
    I am very excited that tomorrow this will be over and we will have a new Democrat President.  In Dallas the Democrat party is have a celebration in the Bishop Arts District of Dallas.  It is going to be very exciting.
  •  I'm on my last nerve w/these effin #s. (0+ / 0-)

    OBAMA-BIDEN LANDSLIDE!
    McPalinCain - In yer gutz, you know they're nutz!

    by OleHippieChick on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:31:04 AM PST

  •  "Take a deep breath" (0+ / 0-)
    MSNBC's Morning Joe, who has four guests (with three of them saying they will vote McCain), is telling his viewers that if McCain wins, the country isn't racist and if Obama wins, the country isn't going to hell in a handbasket.

    Given that four of the five at the table are partisan Republicans, and that they are all talking about Obama's positive campaign (and just now, saying that McCain's final days Wright commercials are making him look desparate), I think they are making an effort to calm down the partisans on the Right.

    January 20 2009 cannot come soon enough.

    by Crisis Corps Volunteer on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:33:56 AM PST

  •  14% African-American (0+ / 0-)
    is in the poll demographics for this 3-day track.

    White 794 (72%)
    Black 152 (14%)
    Latino 140 (13%)

    Is that what we expect at the polls?

  •  Daylight time is in the Kos timestamps (0+ / 0-)
    instead of standard time -- on the comments
  •  You think she'd learn (0+ / 0-)

    about holding up t-shirts.

     title=

  •  There's something about Florida ... (0+ / 0-)

    Has anyone noticed that the vast amount of punditry talking about electoral scenarios always assumes McCain will take FL?  I mean, I guess they have to assume that, seeing as how Gramps doesn't win without it.

    But I think Obama's chances at taking the state have clearly been understated by the MSM, seeing as how he consistently polls a couple points ahead.

    I expect to get to start in on the champagne rather early tomorrow night, and I expect FL to be the reason why.

  •  Breaking! New "McCain Effect" data! (4+ / 0-)

    My wife's parents in TX are both very conservative southern Baptists who never vote for a Democrat.  My mother-in-law called to say she's going to vote for Obama -- but not to tell my father-in-law.  Then he got on the phone and said not to tell my mother-in-law, but he's pulling the lever for Obama himself.

    "Explanations come to an end somewhere." -- Ludwig Wittgenstein

    by The Secret Sharer on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 05:55:27 AM PST

  •  RAS: 52 - 46 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha

    Moving up at the right time.  

    President Elect Obama.

  •  Palin '12 gear is already out of style (0+ / 0-)

    Just like McCain/Palin '08

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -Edmund Burke

    by Dr Don Key on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:07:24 AM PST

  •  I wonder why R2000 is one of very few polls (0+ / 0-)

    showing any national tightening. Even the state polls seem to be finally catching up with the Obama surge now.  

  •  new D Corps (0+ / 0-)

    Palin's 'warmth/cold at a low 44.

    http://www.pollster.com/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:29:41 AM PST

  •  Rasmussen 11/03: O 52% - M 46% (0+ / 0-)

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:33:48 AM PST

  •  Zogby is releasing final poll Tues morning (0+ / 0-)
  •  Ras just came in 52-46 Obama (0+ / 0-)
    +1 from yesterday
  •  Ras will also release his final poll Tuesday morn (0+ / 0-)
  •  All these polls have two things in common... (0+ / 0-)

    Obama in the 50's and McCain in the mid 40's. McShame is cooked.

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:40:26 AM PST

  •  intrade has seen a surge to Obama (0+ / 0-)
    in the last couple of days - he's now over 90% and McCain below 10%. So the punters seem to be saying "it's over".

    If you look at the state-level markets, Obama is currently priced to take 353 EVs. I've noticed that in the last couple of days there has been a firming on both sides, such that now only a very few states remain below a 75-25 spread and therefore with a realistic chance of the other side winning.

    They are: GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, and ND.

    So in a word, the market is suggesting there's more likely upside for Obama than downside relative to the current projection.

    Only NC of the states where he's ahead is rated seriously close, while 5 lean McCain states totalling 42 EVs are seen as vulnerable. Obama is seen as more likely to approach 400 than 300 EVs, in other words.

  •  Boy do I hope this is the weekend effect (0+ / 0-)

    Who knew R2K would end up lower than most polls?  One just hope R2K isn't picking up what McCain says he sees in his internals.

    I am sorry, KOS, this one is the outlier, especially with a 2-3 pt dem lean according to Nate?

    DemFromCT, were there any adjustments to the weighting last week, or are they the same as always?

    Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

    McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

    by justmy2 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:48:42 AM PST

  •  Battleground: more convergence (0+ / 0-)

    Obama 50 (+1)
    McCain 44 (-1)

    Here

  •  NBC/WSJ poll: Obama holds significant lead (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

    With just a day left until Election Day, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a statistically significant advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain in the race for the White House, according to the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the election.

    Obama leads McCain by eight points nationally among likely voters, 51 to 43 percent, which is down three points from his 53-to-42 lead in the poll nearly two weeks ago.

    To put Obama’s eight-point edge into perspective, the final NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election had President Bush with a slim one-point lead over John Kerry, 48 to 47 percent.

    Bush went on to win that election, 51 to 48 percent.

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:04:46 AM PST

  •  KOS - On the favorability rating for Biden.... (0+ / 0-)

    Love him!  I cannot say this enough.  THIS is the regular guy we all want advising the President.....NOT Joe the Plumber!

  •  all bull (0+ / 0-)

    the more I think of these polls the less I trust them. It seems like they poll for a few months and then at the end the come up with a number that everybody else comes up with. Seems like artificial convergence to me. Look at that PEW poll. Fifteen points to six in one week and R2K which was overstating Obama's lead all of a sudden comes down to the same as just about everybody else. One would think that they are afraid of being considered a Dem poll because Kos subscribes and they are afraid of losing credibility if they come in too high for Obama. I don't mean to say the polls are corrupt but that they cheat a little to try to get to a certain consensus number.

  •  GWUB will make calls tonight and final poll Tues (0+ / 0-)
  •  Blast from the Past (0+ / 0-)

    Kos: Kerry Will Win Big

    No time to get complacent.

  •  R2K is the stinky outlier now. And no winning is (0+ / 0-)

    NOT enough.  We want a mandate, not some crappy Bushesque victory.  If any of the policy programs we want to be implemented have a serious chance of passage, an electoral mandate (not some slim win) is required.  

  •  I don't take much comfort in the Dkos poll (0+ / 0-)
    I actually find it virtually useless because it dramatically oversamples our people and undersamples Republicans.  So I don't find comforting the fact that we have a 4% lead in overnight numbers in the last two days with the skew far above that margin in our favor.  I do take some comfort in our steady leads in Rasmussen, Battleground, and Zogby, all of which have partisan ID numbers much more consistent with the last several elections.

    According to Hillary, "lobbyists are people, too."

    by Prince Georges for Obama on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:03:07 AM PST

  •  Obama ahead in 111 straight nat. polls since 9/22 (0+ / 0-)

    From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
    Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust (looking back through the Pollster.com national trend), including the trackers back to Sept. 22-24 when a Gallup Tracking poll showed the race tied at 46%-46%. Since a Big Ten poll that showed McCain up 46%-45%, Obama has led in 117 of 119 polls

  •  PPP Florida --- O50, M48 (0+ / 0-)

    The sure have a lot of these +2 results. Too tight for my nerves.

    Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

    by SadEagle on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:23:53 AM PST

  •  I'm giving Palin money (0+ / 0-)

    I'm deadly serious. If she isn't completely wrecked and somehow manages to get a viable 2012 exploratory committee going, I'll do everything I can to insure she becomes the GOP nominee. She can do much better than break the back of the rethugs; she can grind their bones to pumice.

  •  Running behind Gallup. (0+ / 0-)
    The dKos tracking poll has been reporting a more modest lead for obama than Gallup reports for some time.

    Today's -- yesterday's really -- Gallup tracking poll shows 53/42 for both sets of likely voters and 53/40 for registered voters.

    "I'm not opposed to all wars; I'm opposed to dumb wars." -- Obama in 2002

    by Frank Palmer on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:40:01 AM PST

  •  Running behind Gallup. (0+ / 0-)
    The dKos tracking poll has been reporting a more modest lead for obama than Gallup reports for some time.

    Today's -- yesterday's really -- Gallup tracking poll shows 53/42 for both sets of likely voters and 53/40 for registered voters.

    So much for the Kos liberal bias.

    "I'm not opposed to all wars; I'm opposed to dumb wars." -- Obama in 2002

    by Frank Palmer on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:40:43 AM PST

    •  anyone who thinks we are manipulating the poll (0+ / 0-)

      is a moron.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:53:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  are you saying (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT

        there isn't some bias in all polls? and creativity with the numbers? You shouldn't call people morons for expressing an opinion

        •  perhaps i haven't expressed it strongly enough (0+ / 0-)

          compete and utter fucking morons, blithering idiots, drooling babies. ;-)

          Interpretation is partisan, the numbers are not. No creativity with numbers. Pollsters are the CPAs of the campaign, the Mentats. it is a moral and to-the-bone insult to suggest otherwise. They can err, but anyone who does it deliberately will never work in the field.

          "Bias" isn't bias, it's house effect, the tendency for methodology to lean one way or the other. To the extent that it exists (and it's usually minor), it's mistake and not intent.

          If you don't get that, you don't get anything.

          Now, it's up to each campaign to spin the numbers to their advantage. Everyone does that, it's their job. But that's very different than suggesting ginning up the numbers. Very different.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:41:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for All your efforts DemFrom CT (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DemFromCT

            It has been quite entertaining having a coffee everyday with your updates.  It brought a lot of insight into the race.

            P.S. if you can rig the numbers - try not to give me a heartattack tomorrow - just kidding.  Thanks again.

            BTW why did Gallup stop its polling yesterday?

            •  maybe because (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SadEagle

              Gallup has a tradition that they stick to. Look, for example, as they define "bounce after the convention" as a particular reading on a particular day after the convention so they can compare year to year.

              We are not so bound by it.

              "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

              by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:57:08 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  53-44 Marist. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    As per TPM

    Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

    by SadEagle on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:54:09 AM PST

  •  a thing so very small (0+ / 0-)

    a thing so very small (0+ / 0-)

    I think it is interesting that many Democrats and Americans voting for Obama have a problem with his middle name.  Still!

    Hussein is as much a part of Obama as his race.  

    Will I be slapped every time I express support for Hussein Obama instead of Barack Obama?  I am too old to have children, but the next dog I adopt will be called O!

    Obama's middle name is Hussein.  I am voting for Obama on Tuesday because he is the better person to lead this country for the next 4 years (hopefully 8).  He is the  better person regardless of whether his name is Barack Jim Obama, or Barack John Obama or Barack Joe Obama.  

    I am voting for Hussein Obama.  "cutesy or not"

    And why is it that a person has to write a Russian Novel in a diary to be taken seriously?

    In many of the comments that I read here, many of the commentators  have single line quotes appended to the comment.

    Why is that?  

    Perhaps in the single line, in just a few words there is a message that can be understood.  More so than any tome.  Than any "diary" that consist of hundreds, thousands of words.  

    My favorite is from the novel It can't happen here:

     

       "...   there is only one thing bigger than a very big thing, and that is a thing so very small that it can be seen and understood."

       I guess somethings can't be small enough for some people to understand?

  •  first read (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust (looking back through the Pollster.com national trend), including the trackers back to Sept. 22-24 when a Gallup Tracking poll showed the race tied at 46%-46%. Since a Big Ten poll that showed McCain up 46%-45%, Obama has led in 117 of 119 polls

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:21:41 AM PST

  •  Intrade is going bonkers (0+ / 0-)

    Obama now given a 92% chance of winning the election with a projected 364 Electoral votes.  Missouri has switched, they're giving O over an 80% chance to take Ohio and Florida is even sitting at 75%.  Lets Intrade is as accurate as it was 4 years ago.

    Oh and the 7-Election was an Obama blowout too.

    If John McCain is elected president, he will make Cheney look like Gandhi. - Ironically, Pat Buchanan

    by peacesignmoose on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:31:54 AM PST

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