Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 51-45. All trackers are data from three days to five days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). Data is updated as new information becomes available. Daily posting is approximately 7:30 am EST (I hope you set your clocks back.) LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter. The last R2K poll of the election will be polled Monday and published Tuesday!
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 51 (51) 45 (44) 3 LV Final tomorrow
Reuters/Zogby: 51 (50) 44 (44) 2.9 LV Final tomorrow
USAToday/Gallup: 53 (52) 42 (45) 2 LV Final
Gallup: 53 (52) 42 (43) 2 LV Final all variations
NBC/WSJ: 51 (52) 43 (42) 3.1 LV Final
Rasmussen: 52 (51) 46 (46) 2 LV Final tomorrow
Diageo/Hotline: 50 (50) 45 (45) 3.4 LV Final
DCorps(D): 51 (52) 44 (43) 3 LV Final
Battleground: 50 (49) 44 (45) 3.1 LV Final tomorrow
Marist: 53 (50) 44 (43) 3.5 LV Final
IBD/TIPP: 48 (47) 43 (45) 3.3 LV alternate link
CBS: 51 (54) 42 (41) 3 LV
Fox: 50 (47) 43 (44) 3 LV Final
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Fri, +4 Sat and +4 Sun, with a +8 Thurs sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The important number is Obama's and not McCain's [and remember the R2K number is +6, not +4!!]. At 50-51, he wins. McCain will close but he will not win, and this is why (R2K data):
Note that there's only 1% undecided (the rest are third party.)
This is the pollster.com tracker graph from this morning:
From USA Today:
Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its "traditional" model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted -- including first-timers.
The results are identical to Gallup's "expanded" pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.
One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates' current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.
That 55% is the highest Obama number I can remember seeing.
Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.
"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.
"This poll has all the earmarkings of an electorate that has reached an opinion that Barack Obama would be a good president," Mr. Hart said. "The uncertainties [about Sen. Obama] that were so prevalent early in the year have just melted away."
From the ABC/WaPo poll:
After nearly two years of ads, rallies, debates and barnstorming, Obama is up 54 to 43 percent among likely voters, in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. And the ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7 percent heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.
Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy (back up to 15 points) and beaten back a challenge on taxes (he's +11 there). On handling an unexpected major crisis, what had been a double-digit McCain lead to start the fall campaign, is now a 6-point advantage for Obama.
And on the measure that most often correlates to turnout, enthusiasm, Obama holds a massive 26-point advantage in deeply enthusiastic support. In late October of 2004, George W. Bush held a nine-point edge over John F. Kerry on this metric.
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008.
A slew of other polls joining NBC/WSJ and those above should be out today. Keep an eye out for them, but look at the Obama 50-54 numbers and the McCain 44-46 numbers. McCain will increase but not catch Obama, whose numbers are steady. And Sarah Palin will need to ponder her future in light of her heavy unfavorables. From CNN:
CNN's new poll suggests that a majority of Americans have a favorable view of both presidential candidates, with 61 percent giving a thumbs up for Obama and 56 percent for McCain.
But the same is not true of their running mates, Democratic Sen. Joe Biden and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.
"Six in ten have a favorable view of Joe Biden, but the public is split right down the middle on Sarah Palin. And Palin's unfavorables have been growing — eight points higher than early October and more than twice as high as they were when she was first introduced to the public in late August,"Holland said.