For those GOTV troops taking a breather... some wind beneath your wings...
Gallup has now confirmed to Mark Blumenthal that this is infact their final poll... they're going dark at this point, but rejoice, the results are stunning.
Gallup's Jeff Jones confirms via email that this release also represents "the final Gallup Daily poll and final Gallup estimate. No more from us."
Gallup's release
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.
The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.
Ending the campaign at the highest point all year is clearly indicating that this is 1980, Ronald Reagan territory; the electorate is SHIFTING FAST for Obama and 55% is incredible.
Turnout will be a record 64% as Gallup pegs their turnout model after reviewing early voter information.
This year's higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early voting -- 28% of registered voters in the final poll indicated they had already voted -- and higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections.
This vindicates the Obama talking point regarding Sporatic Voters. With the Registered Voters information, the gap is staggering:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 40%
It would take an improbable last minute shift in voter preferences or a huge Republican advantage in Election Day turnout for McCain to improve enough upon his predicted share of the vote in Gallup's traditional likely voter model to overcome his deficit to Obama.
Rick Davis, here's looking at you, Mr. Puffy Lips...
Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.
And to finish, some GOTV inspiration
Additionally, the Obama campaign has appeared to do a slightly better job of reaching voters than the McCain campaign: thus far 39% of registered voters say they have been contacted by the Obama campaign compared, with 33% contacted by McCain's camp.
Today, Ohio came out today BIG!
Columbus: 60,000
Cleveland: 80-100,000
Cincinnati: 50,000? Can't find a count but the place holds 35,000...
200,000 in Ohio on a Sunday....
One Day! Consider yourself Recharged for Monday!!!