The Reverend Wright card will fail.
The RNC played that card earlier this election year, and it failed. During the special congressional elections in Mississippi and Louisiana, trying to tie two democratic contenders against Republican incumbents. They ran ads trying to link the democratic candidates to Obama and Reverend Wright. The ads failed. They did not energize white voters, but did energize black voters. End result - the two democrats defeated the incumbents.
They won't work this time, either. Why not? Because the McCain campaign is the campaign that has cried wolf too many times already, and no one trusts McCain or the Republicans very much when they raise their scare tactics.
The race is over. More below.
The key is credibility. Or, the lack thereof.
The McCain campaign has lost all credibility in three short months of campaigning. Without credibility, their attack ads are simply not going to be trusted or believed.
Think about it this way. When the National Enquirer came out with its story about John Edwards' mistress, no one believed them, even though the story turned out to be true. Why not? Because of their lousy reputation for honest and truthful reporting. They didn't have any credibility as a producer of serious journalism, and so the Edwards story just got ignored, put in the same category as stories such as "Aliens abduct Michael Jackson" or "Brittney Spears is Madonna's love child!"
Yes, the McCain campaign and the Republicans are now the National Enquirer of electoral politics.
Think of the lies they've committed and incendiary false charges they've spewed already: comparing Obama to Paris Hilton and Brittney Spears; calling Obama a socialist; talking about how he "pals around with terrorists"; lying about suspending their campaign; saying he'll skip the debate, and then changing his mind due to bad press; trying to tie Obama to Bill Ayers, even though it's clear that there's nothing there; etc.
The wingnut true believers will lap up the Wright smears, but they're converts and already believe all that other nonsense the republicans have been throwing at Obama.
But, for indies and democrats, this ad, even though technically not by the McCain campaign, are just going to them angry and disgusted with McCain and his vile and vicious tactics. They are going to make peoples' eyes roll with annoyance, not suddenly get them to see Obama in a different light.
Indies and democrats are going to put this Wright attack along with those horrible robocall smears, Liddy Dole's "Godless" atrocity, Bachmann's anti-American spittle, and basically all of McCain's negative ads run during the general campaign.
We've had enough of this crap. We're fed up with the politics of hate and fearmongering. And on November 4th, the American people will send that message loud and clear to McCain and the Republican party.
The era of Rovian politics is over.