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Zogby National

O: 50.9  (49.5)
M: 43.8  (43.8)

As Election Day nears in the U.S. Presidential race, Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 7.1 points over Republican John McCain, up from a 5.7 point advantage in yesterday's report, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama's territory. A reminder: we will have another release based on polling through midnight Monday out early Tuesday."

We know what the last 2 results were

Obama:  50.9 x 3 = 152.7 - 52 - 47 =  53.7%  Interesting
McCain:  43.8 x 3 = 131.4 - 42 - 48 = 41.1  LOL

Zogby Battleground Polls
O: 53.7
M: 40.0

O: 50.2
M: 43.9

O: 50.7
M: 44.6

O: 50.7
M: 42.9

O: 47.5
M: 46.2

O: 47.4
M: 45.7

O: 47.7
M: 49.3

O: 43.9
M: 49.1

Obama heads into Tuesday's voting in a comfortable position, with McCain struggling to overtake Obama's lead in every national opinion poll and to hold off his challenge in about a dozen states won by President George W. Bush in 2004.

The new state polls showed Obama with a 1-point lead in Missouri and 2-point lead in Florida, within the margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. But Obama also holds leads in Ohio, Virginia and Nevada -- all states won by Bush in 2004.

The five states where Obama is ahead have a combined 76 electoral votes. Along with states won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004, they would give Obama 328 electoral votes -- far more than the 270 needed to win the White House.

I think based upon the late polling from gallup, NBC and now Zogby all +50, when RCP updates tomorrow, it'll cross 51%, pushing Obama's ceiling to the highest point so far this election and placing his lead on par with his largest thus far.

Peaking at the exact right time. When Zogby's 47-48 sample rolls off tomorrow night, Obama should grow to +10% in Zogby and fall in line with all the other mainline polls...  for what its worth.

Originally posted to Billary Redux on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:20 PM PST.


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