Looking over my morning local paper, The Commercial Appeal here in Memphis, TN I came across this story that just encapsulated for me so much of what this election means to so many.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/...
In the day prior to the election edition of The Commercial Appeal is this little gem of a personal drive to vote. After reading this story, coupled with all of the other articles of folks waiting in line for hours I just cannot imagine how someone that believes that if it is time for a change they could look at a long line and say; "That is just too much effort".
Here in Shelby county the lines at early voting have been remarkable. The total turnout here may be the reason the McCain campaign felt it necessary to add a stop in eastern Tennessee to their list of campaign stops on this last day of the campaign. Yep. The early vote totals here in Tennessee in the Memphis & Nashville areas have caused the McCain campaign to make a stop here a priority.
I digress. Here is the story of a local hero. As a 100% disabled veteran with many chronic medical conditions that spends time in the hospital I will pass along this Monday morning motivational with the hope that you find it as remarkable as I did.
When she got out of Saint Francis Hospital on Thursday, after a stay related to her lung cancer, Shirley Young demanded her children take her directly to an early-voting station.
The 59-year-old Raleigh resident wanted to vote more than she wanted to go home. Her son said she sensed it could be her last vote.
"I just wanted to go because this is a first-time thing, this situation with a black man running," said Young, who has worked as a cashier at Rite Aid since retiring from the state's Arlington Developmental Center. "I probably should have stayed in the hospital."
WOW!
For anyone that has ever had to spend time in a hospital this example of the drive to participate rather than go home is simple remarkable and is a true testament to what this election means to so many of us all.
Later in this article we get a glimpse at the underlying numbers from this neck of the woods that is driving this under the radar story.
But the 2008 fall general election in Shelby County has been dominated by the surge in turnout among registered black voters, one that is mirrored in other areas with large African-American populations. There were 103,420 ballots cast by black voters in Shelby County's 14 days of early voting, or 29,472 more than registered white voters and 44,147 more registered black votes than were cast in 2004's early voting.
In 2004, registered black voters made up only 36 percent of early votes, compared to 42.5 percent of white voters. In 2008, registered black voters made up 40.7 percent of early votes vs. 29.1 percent for white registered voters.
Now then, there has been much discussion about the "Bradley & Wilder effect" and how this election may turn out very differently on election day. There have been other voices, mine among them that recognize here in the mid-south and in the deep south there may well be a reverse Bradley effect whereby polling data is significantly under representing black turnout. Well, here is a fine example of this discussion point being addressed with hard data from the field.
Keith Norman, chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, echoed a belief among Obama supporters that Shelby County provides strong evidence that polls are under-representing black people in likely-voter models.
"We've never seen an election like this," Norman said. "There is no model for this. The strategy has been to tap into where the people really are. Census and past participation doesn't track it well, especially for a group where many people don't have telephones or (are) living in uncommon residential situations."
Now the sand bag begins to fall on the "traditional voter model" so detested by so many here.
Less attention has focused on what might happen if black-voter turnout nationally looks like Memphis and Shelby County. If projections hold on Tuesday, turnout among registered black voters should exceed 80 percent and possibly reach 90.
"This may be one of those years and one of those candidates where the turnout Democrats always hoped to get from these groups finally materialized," said Rhodes College political science professor Marcus Pohlmann.
Finally, one of the most respected political observers drops the hammer.
The bad news for McCain is that most estimates project that as much as one-third of the vote has been cast.
"This cake looks baked," wrote Charlie Cook, a veteran analyst with Cook Political Report whose children attend Rhodes College.
Regardless, republican wishful thinking on the make up of the early voter pool may come true. This belief is premised upon the concept that the early democratic vote is already in and McCain will own election day.
We will see. All I really know on this day before the 2008 election is that a woman by the name of Shirley Young has provided me with a human face to the story line of our GOTV efforts. Now is the time for all of us to drive to the finish and leave it all on the street.
Peace