Yet still win the election... follow me inside as I map out why our GOTV is most crucial in light of recent polling.
Some people have only a basic notion of GOTV: Have your people show up to vote.
It gets much more complicated however when you study differences in early turn out and election day turn out. The Republicans have for years however outgamed Democrats by getting a large number of their voters out on Absentee ballots ahead of election day, banking their votes early. That situation is very reversed and it's the GOP today who stands to Win Election day yet lose the election as now the operative term is GOTV Efficiency.
Many polls last night shed light on the state of the race. All from Public Polling Policy's excellent blog.
Florida
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.
Montana
Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state.
North Carolina
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.
But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Ohio
He's banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
Virginia
Early Voted: 16%
Obama: 63%
McCain: 36%
Election Day: 84%
Obama: 50%
McCain: 48%
ONE STATE DOES NOT FOLLOW THESE EXAMPLES, PA WHERE THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HAS GOT TO GO FOR OBAMA ON ELECTION DAY... STFIL PA...
So, with all of that data above, this is NOT Meant to scare anyone or show that the sky is falling... Absolutely not. To modify a phrase, THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR BARACK OBAMA!!!
WHY? Because any number of things can happen to depress GOP vote, which is still sitting at home on their vote. For instance, there will be snow/rain in Nevada and Montana, rain in Virginia and North Carolina on election day. Also, with the media showing Obama's lead nearly insurmountable, and a know gap in differences between certain support and weak support, McCain's people may NOT show up.
Now, about Obama's GOTV Efficiency and You!
This is all great stuff because the universe of Obama voters to GOTV with on Election day has been trimmed substantially due to the successes of Early Voting in all of the above states. This means that while the bankrupt, phone only McCain GOTV opperation has to turn out 55%+ on Election day, Obama's folks only need to hit 45% in many of these places.
Breaking it down, say there are 100 voters, 50 support Obama, 49 support McCain and one for Barr.
Today, in North Carolina for instance, 28 Obama voters have banked their vote, leaving 22 at home. Only 22 McCain voters have cast their ballot, and 27 are still at home.
McCain's hobbled, running on empty, hope and a pray with a little bit of fear and hate GOTV operation will depend on 90% of those 27 to simply get their own ass to the polls. It'll be raining likely and maybe on 23 (85%) show up. That leaves McCain with an election day tally of 45% (23+22).
North Carolina for Obama GOTV then needs to turn out 46 total votes, with 28 already in the bag. Total needed: 18. That's only an 81% required rate. There is a LOWER HURDLE for Obama's GOTV operation, and we are under no illusions as to how its been operating.
Conclusion
Due to the strong and historic turn out in Early Voting, armed with an army of GOTV highly motivated for victory, realize we have a lower bar to cross for victory in essentially dead even states, and your efforts today and tomorrow will win this election.
Make More Phone Calls than you thought of before.
Go to the polls tomorrow and tell Our supporters to STFIL
Be Visible in the Community
Make sure all your friends who haven't vote, will vote.
Volunteer to drive people to the polls tomorrow (huge impact).
Volunteer for Election protection tomorrow.
and if you haven't voted yet, VOTE!!!
Keep in mind this one principle; we don't have to win the vote on just election day, we just have to get more of our potential vote to the polls than they do... If we can run @ 90% while they run @ 85%, even though they'll have more headcounts, we'll win.
Now, One Day... Please, GOTV!