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I did pretty well in 2006, nailing every competitive Senate race with 8 points of the final results, came within six in House races of the total, and called six of eight governorships, again doing well in the point spreads. (Ironically, one of my missed calls was the governor's race in Alaska.)

This year we've got our reader contest, with the winner getting an Apple MacBook. Many others will best me and the rest of the Daily Kos editors, offering invaluable bragging rights. But I'm also going to do my own expanded predictions because there's nothing like going out on a limb. No guts, no glory, right? So let's see what I pull out of my you-know-where:


Popular vote: O+9 (54-45-1)
Electoral College: Obama 390, McCain 148

I won't cry if Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, or any other state delivers.

AL: M+23
AK: M+11
AZ: M+5
AR: M+8
CA: O+22
CO: O+7
CT: O+20
DE: O+24
DC: O+78
FL : O+2
GA: O+3
HI: O+40
ID: M+29
IL: O+25
IN: O+2
IA: O+14
KS: M+17

KY: M+17
LA: M+9
ME: O+18
MD: O+22
MA: O+26
MI: O+16
MN: O+11
MS: M+7
MO: O+2
MT: M+0
NE: M+19
NV: O+7
NH: O+10
NJ: O+15
NM: O+9
NY: O+29
NC: O+4

ND: M+1
OH: O+1
OK: M+26
OR: O+16
PA: O+8
RI: O+28
SC: M+11
SD: M+10
TN: M+13
TX: M+9
UT: M+31
VT: O+22
VA: O+6
WA: O+15
WV: M+8
WI: O+11
WY: M+31


57 Democrats, 40 Republicans, 2 Independents, 1 runoff

AK: Begich (D) by 15
CO: Udall (D) by 14
GA: Chambliss (R) by 1, but runoff
KY: McConnell  (R) by 3 (please, please, please be wrong!)
ME: Collins (R) by 12
MN: Franken (D) by 4
MS-B: Wicker (R) by 4
NH: Shaheen (D) by 10
NM: Udall (D) by 19
NC: Hagan (D) by 6
OR: Merkley (D) by 10
VA: Warner (D) by 30


Democrats 268, Republicans 167

Update: The map embed got all buggy, so I replaced with an image. Now everyone sees what I intended everyone to see.

Update: Karl Rove chimes in (PDF) -- Obama 338, McCain 200.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:00 PM PST.

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