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Despite little money and official presence I think Obama has a gambler's chance at pinning a blue ribbon on Texas this Tuesday today.   It will require a perfect storm of turnout but that storm may well be brewing.  

Follow me past the ellipse and quadruple colons for my caffeine induced analysis...

Background:

Let's look at the recent Daily Kos R2K poll:

McCain:  52%
Obama:  40%
Other: 4%
[Kerry 38%]

Let's check the demo breakouts (party, race/ethnicity, age):

McCain:  14-84-51, 68-4-33-35, 49-56-53-51
Obama:  80-7-41, 25-89-57-55, 44-35-39-41
Other:  1-5-6, 6-0-0-0, 4-5-4-3
[Kerry:  90-3-31, 25-83-50, 41-31-36-46]

One thing that jumps out is that Obama does as well among Whites as Kerry did but trails in Dems.  Obama also does better then Kerry with Blacks and Hispanics.  It's sort of paradoxical and may be statistical noise.  

The Perfect Storm:  Hispanic Turnout
It starts with basic demographic trends -- from 2000 to 2008 the Hispanic % of the voting age population grew 6%.  This came entirely at the expense of the white demographic.  

Three other factors should support a solid Hispanic turnout for Obama:
First, Senate candidate Rick Noriega will appeal to Hispanic voters and the support he's gotten from the Clintons, the DSCC and the netroots has undoutedly helped his turnout effort.  
Next, 32% of voters in the vigorous Dem primary were Hispanic -- these voters are likely to return in the general election.  
Finally, Hispanics have been drifting to the Democratic side -- Bush took 50% in 04 but McCain is polling in the 30's and I'm sure McRage's immigration waffle and the way the border fence issue has been used as a wedge in Texas over the last few years has started to consolidate opinions among the Hispanic community.

Let's look at some baseline data to get our 2008 targets:

Turnout % 2000 Election
White 58.8  
Black 58.6
Hispanic 41.0
Other 51.0

2004 Exit Polls
White 66%
Black 12%
Hispanic 20%
Other 03%

2007 Texas Pop by Race/Ethinicity Age 17+
White 51.5%
Black 11.4%
Hispanic 33.0%
Other 4.2%

OMG just say he wins already

Putting these all together (exercise left to the reader) then, the perfect storm in Texas looks something like this [R2K]:
McCain 65-05-35-35  [68-04-33-35]
Obama 30-95-65-65  [25-89-57-55]
Other 05-00-00-00  [06-00-00-00]

With the following racial/ethnic breakdown [2004 exit polls]:
White 59% [65%]
Black 14% [12%]
Hispanic 24% [20%]
Other 3%  [03%]

The breakdown doesn't bother me but obviously the racial/ethnic preference numbers could use some improvement (though I think they are within MoE).  

If Obama can manage these numbers he squeaks out a 48.55% to 48.50% victory and wins Texas and her 34 Electoral Votes.  

p.s. I haven't gone into the Noriega numbers but the same perfect storm of Dems (Noriega, Obama, Clintons) helping each other out up and down ticket and Republicans (McCain, Cornyn, Dubya) running away from each other and their party should give Rick a great shot as well.   A lot of people have written off Obama and Noriega in Texas but I put my Daily Kos Election Prediction where my mouth is.

Originally posted to Steko on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:15 AM PST.

Poll

If the Inaugural is a Costume Ball I should go as...

16%5 votes
9%3 votes
3%1 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
22%7 votes
9%3 votes
3%1 votes
9%3 votes
9%3 votes
0%0 votes
6%2 votes

| 31 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I keep turning to Mrs. Aquaman (7+ / 0-)

    and saying "Watch for Texas"

    Do you believe in miracles??

  •  Very interesting, thanks. (5+ / 0-)

    It's a very long shot, but you've obviously done your homework.

    Let's see that vaunted Obama GOTV machine in action!

  •  I just hope the Hispanics DO get out & vote (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Yosef 52, Big Tex, Othniel, OrangeMike

    but I was a little discouraged by the early vote turnout in some of the bigger counties that have large Hispanic populations, like El Paso County, Hidalgo County, and Cameron County.

    Compared to the other 12 of the 15 largest counties in Texas, they had a lower percentage of early voters.

    There was also an article in the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal about a low Hispanic turnout during early voting there.

    Voter turnout by Hispanics lags in city

    Bexar County (San Antonio) had a pretty good early voter turnout, though and there's lots of Hispanics there.

    Also, I read somewhere else that many Hispanics prefer to vote on Election Day, so maybe there's still hope.

    I'm not expecting Texas to turn blue this year, but I'm not ruling it out, either.

    And if Texas DOES turn blue, that would truly be the icing on the democratic cake.

    And it would be Obama-licious.

    McCain/Palin - Country Club First

    by LoneStarMike on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:47:27 AM PST

    •  They have always had low turnout numbers and (0+ / 0-)

      I would expect that to continue.  My (admittedly optimistic) numbers are looking for Hispanics to turn out at a 14% lower rate then whites and historically it's been about 18% lower.

      Scare-a Palin: Democratic Fundraiser of the Century

      by Steko on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 11:37:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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