Help or Hurt?
Well folks...it looks like showers are forecasted for the entire day and the entire state in both North Carolina & Virginia. I was wondering how I should figure this factor in my projections for tomorrow. Here's my initial analysis.
NC - Since NC is a much closer race than VA, a forecast of rain tremendously helps Obama because of the number of Democrats and, in particular, African Americans, that have already voted. Second, polls have consistantly shown that Obama supporters are much more excited about their candidate the McCain supporters by margins of 2 to 1, even 2.5 to 1 and 3 to 1. They therefore would be more willing to stand in long lines out in the rain for their candidate. Third, as a natural corallary, a strong ground game by the Obama campaign would help facilitate getting voters to venture out into the rain? Fourth, the rain would dissuade many undecided voters from getting out and voting. The McCain campaign and many pundits seem to insist that the undecideds will break for McCain so therefore, the rain would work to their disadvantage?
VA - I'm not familiar with VA's early voting statistics. I believe it is much more limited than NC. However, for the reasons of Obama supporter excitement and superior ground game as mentioned for NC, I believe that Obama will be helped slightly.
Anyone else have any thoughts on how this will effect the Obama team?