The plural of anecdote is not data, but I have observed an interesting trend among a number of conservative friends and family: the write-in vote.
Organized write-in campaigns crop up every election cycle, and rarely amount to much (although Strom Thurmond won his senate seat in 1954 as a write-in candidate). But in this case I'm talking about the disorganized write-in. The one-off. The protest.
Disappointed by McCain, disgusted by Palin and uninterested in third-party candidates, a small but significant fraction of the conservatives that I speak to are voicing their dissent by writing in alternative candidates for President.
A friend in Texas informed me that he has gotten at least three votes from his friends and family members - and he's not alone. Several other conservative friends (mostly in the south) have mentioned write-in plans. Heck - my sister-in-law said that she was voting for me.
Will these examples translate into any kind of significant totals? Could there be 1 in 100 conservative votes who refuse to vote Obama, but won't vote for McCain or a third-party candidate? Will we see a "missing" half a percent or more in the voting totals?
If it means seeing McCain's totals at 45% (or less), then I'm certainly hoping so.