Yes, this is my final edition of EC Math. However, I am reserving the right to do one more just before the actual election results start rolling if I see last minute polling in some swing states that might effect who might win such States. Since this my be my last edition, I will have to make my final pick on what I think the Electoral Vote (EV) totals will be for Obama and McCain. This means that after my usual summary of EV totals, I will have to award each of the remaining toss up states to one or the other candidate. I have also included a poll at the end so that you can place your bets as to where you think the Obama-Biden vote total will fall. So join me after the jump /\ where I will take possibly my last look at the race in Electoral College terms by reviewing the polls and other information on all 50 States and the District of Columbia.
Updated: New Prediction at the end.
But first, may God bless Toot, she has raised a Great Man!
In my last look at the EC Math on October 26 I worked my way through a dizzying array of polls to find a fairly stable race. Since then we have seen the national tracking polls shift slightly towards McCain early in the week, and now after the Obama-mercial they seem to be moving slightly back towards Obama. This may all just be noise because the shifts in the national trackers this week have generally been no more than 1 or 2%. But what they do tell us is this race is NOT shifting rapidly towards McCain and the clock has just about run out.
With regard to the State polls, which are what really matter, there are so many polls out now in these anxiety filled closing days that many of you may be getting dizzy as you go through manic and depressed periods with each new poll. So sit back and relax while I attempt to clear the polling haze with another in mt series of Electoral College Math diaries.
This the 8th diary in my series. For those unfamiliar, they are similar to five thirty eight site by Nate Silver, however, my assessment is a little less statistical, with a little more gut feeling thrown in. If you have a hard time reading threw long diaries as I do, regardless of how good they are, feel free to skip to my summary at the end where I add up the electoral votes and offer some interpretation. This time I will also cross my fingers and award the toss up statessince this my be my last diary in this series.
Before I get started, I would ask you all to GOTV! I am convinced that Obama could lose without a good GOTV effort. If we all work like hell and do a good job at GOTV, we win! I have been phonebanking and this weekend I traveled to do some canvassing in Scranton Pa. So please consider canvassing in swing and near swing states, and/or visiting thisObama Site to do some phonebanking.
My resources for the EC analysis include: the most up-to-date State polls; the regional numbers from our Research2000 daily tracker; and the State trends from the Pollster Site. However, as in the past, I will rely on 538 for much of my data. I have full trust in his process of vetting the polls and doubt I could do a better job. He deserves a lot of credit for his fine analysis.
In addition, I will factor in information on early voting in states where it is available. This does not mean actual early voting results, but numbers on who is voting early in terms of numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents; numbers of new voters; numbers of men, women, etc. While this can give us some indication of turnout come election day, it can be misleading. Early voters may just be the people who are the most excited and anxious to vote for their candidate and may not accurately reflect who will turnout on election day. In 2004 early voting information suggested that Kerry was leading in several states which did not pan out in the final results. Still, if there is a 2 to 1 Dem. to Rep. turnout in a state’s early voting, one has to assume that Obama is banking some sort of actual lead. So I will use the early voting information with a grain of salt.
Here are my ground rules for ranking each State:
- I rate a "safe" State for candidate as one where the candidate has a +8 lead in the State’s polls.
- I rate a "lean" State for candidate as one where the candidate has between a +4 to 8 point lead in the State’s polls.
- I rate a "toss up leaning" State for candidate as one where the candidate has between around +1 to 4 point lead in the State’s polls.
- Finally, I rate a "true toss up" State as one where the candidate has between a 0 to 1 point lead in the State’s polls. For these "true toss up" States, I do not award electoral votes to either candidate. These 0 to +1 leads are always within the polls MOE. However, this time after I identify these "true toss up" States, I will try to assign them to a candidate in the final tabulation.
Also, I don’t always stick to these general rules where my gut tells me different, and the "most recent" poll for each State my not always be the "most recent" because they are coming in so fast now it is hard to keep current.
So without further delay, here we go!
Alaska (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +17.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +15.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Alabama (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +24.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +22.8
State Projection: Safe McCain
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-27-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +11.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.8
State Projection: Safe McCain
Arizona (10 EVs) [Swing State?]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +5.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +4.9
State Projection: Lean McCain
Comment: Wow! In my last EC Math diary on October 26, we only had one poll with McCain at +4 which I regarded as an outlier. Now that McCain margin seems to be more the norm with 7 polls out since 10-24 showing McCain at +1, +2, +4, +4, +4, +5 & +6. The undecideds in these polls generally range from 2 to 6%, which is close to the margins of the McCain lead. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising rapidly and McCain with only a slight rising trend, with a +5 lead for McCain in the composite as of 10-30. There is no doubt that the Presidential race in Arizona is tightening with Obama continuing to narrow the gap. But I am not sure there is enough time left or enough undecided Arizona voters to make this State a toss up by election day. Still it definitely deserves to be moved from "safe" McCain to "Lean McCain.
California (55 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +24
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +21
State Projection: Safe Obama
Colorado (9 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: RasMussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +6.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +6.5
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The 8 polls since 10-25 all show Obama leads ranging from +4 to +10, with the 4 most recent of these showing Obama +4, +6, +7 & +10. The undecideds in these polls range from 2 to 4%, which is not enough to cover the margin of the Obama lead. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising sharply and McCain flat lined to dipping, with a +6.7 lead for Obama in the composite as of 11-2. Early voting is currently up 74% over 2004 early voting. The Breakdown Data indicates a 38% Dem. to 36% Rep. split in the early voters, mostly coming from absentee ballots. Colorado remains what I would call a "solid lean" Obama state. By that I mean it is just outside of the 8% lead "safe" territory but it still seams to be out of McCain’s reach with so little time left to close the gap and no data suggesting its trending his way.
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: U of Conn.
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +22
State Projection: Safe Obama
District of Columbia (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-12-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +69
Trend From Previous Poll: None
Average of All Polls: Obama +69
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +71.2
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: What a blow out!
Delaware (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +30
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.2
State Projection: Safe Obama
Florida (27 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision (R)*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +2
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +1.9
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. The 10 Florida polls out since 10-26 show Obama at +1.3, +2, +2, +2, +4, +4, +5 & +7 and McCain at +1, with one tie, for an average of Obama +2.6. It should be noted that Strategic Vision, who has at least a slight Republican lean, now shows Obama up by +2. The undecideds in these 10 recent polls are mainly in the 3 to 7% range, which is enough to make a difference for either candidate. The pollster trend lines show both Obama and McCain slightly rising at about the same rate, with an Obama lead in the composite of +2.2 as of 11-2. Early voting is currently up 56% over 2004 early voting. The breakdown data indicates a 46% Dem. to 37% Rep. split in the early voters, but here’s the kicker, the early vote split in 2004 was 44% Rep. and 41% Dem. So not only is Obama leading in early vote split where Kerry was trailing, but Obama’s is drawing out more Dems. than Bush drew Reps. in 2004. While indicators suggest that Obama my have a slight lead in Florida, deserving of moving this state to "Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean", let me remind everyone that this is FLORIDA. A slight lead in Florida gives me 2000 flashbacks.
Georgia (15 EVs) [Swing State?]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Insider Advantage*
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +4.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +4.4
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. The 6 Georgia polls since 10-26 show McCain +1, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5 & +7 for an average of McCain 3.3. The undecideds in these 7 recent polls generally range from 1 to 3%, so there may be enough undecideds to swing Georgia to Obama. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising sharply and McCain dropping, with an McCain lead in the composite of +2.2 as of 11-2. Also, Bob Barr is at 1.4% in the composite, which has to be a substantial drain from McCain. Early voting is currently up 60% over 2004 early voting. Of these early voters, 35% are African-American, up from 25% in 2004. Also, 56% were women compared to 41% men, which is another good Obama sign. However, it is uncertain whether the 35% African-American vote will hold through election day or whether its simply that many are voting early. Also, the white male vote may be waiting in the wings. So based on the current polling numbers, I’ll Georgia a toss up with a slight McCain Lean, to be conservative.
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +41
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +37
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +39.1
State Projection: Safe Obama
Iowa (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Seltzer
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +17
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +13.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.2
State Projection: Safe Obama
Idaho (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Harstad
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +23
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +24.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.2
State Projection: Safe McCain
Illinois (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +24
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +21.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.6
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: Obama’s margin in his home State is +24. McCain’s margin in his home State is +1. Sort tells the whole story don’t it!
Indiana (11 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +0.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +0.7
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: Throwing out Zogby, of the 6 recent polls since 10-26, 3 show a tie, 3 show Obama with a +1 lead and 1 sows McCain with a +3 lead. It doesn’t get any tighter. The undecideds in these 5 recent polls range from 3 to 6%, easily enough to swing Indiana for Obama or McCain. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising some and McCain falling slightly, with the composite showing a tie as of 11-2. This State is a coin toss.
Kansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +16.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +16.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +12
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +12.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +12.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Loyola
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Comment: Don’t get to excited about the most recent poll. Two other polls taken a day or two earlier still show McCain with a healthy double digit lead in Louisiana. So the Loyola poll appears to be an outlier. However, early voting showing a 59% to 28% Dem. to Rep. turnout, and 36% African-American, does give me pause to wonder. So, if your looking for a shocker on Tuesday, this State could be it.
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +17
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +19.8
State Projection: Safe Obama
Maryland (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +23
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +20.3
State Projection: Safe Obama
Maine (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +12.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +13.6
State Projection: Safe Obama
Michigan (17 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +12.5
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.6
State Projection: Safe Obama
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.8
State Projection: Safe Obama
Missouri (11 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Tie
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: Obama +0.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +0.4
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: The 7 polls out since 10-29 show Obama at +0.8 & +1.7 and McCain at +1 & +3, and 2 ties. The undecideds are mainly in the range of 2 to 3%, which makes them above the point spread in most of the polls. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising and McCain falling, with Obama having a composite lead of +1.4 on 11-2. However, since the polls keep flirting with Missouri being a tie, I have to rate it as a true toss up.
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Montana (3 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +1.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +1.6
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean
Comment: Although the PPP poll, which may have some Dem. lean, has Obama up by one, the other 3 polls out since 10-29 show McCain +3, +4 & +4, which is amazing consistency between different pollsters. The pollster shows Obama rising sharply and McCain falling with McCain at a +1.9 lead in the composite as of 11-2. While the most recent poll and the trend lines are encouraging, I’ll play it conservative and call it a Toss Up with a Slight McCain Lean, but by no means out of Obama’s reach.
North Carolina (15 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: Obama +0.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +1
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: The 9 polls out since 10-29 show Obama +1, +1, +2, +2 & +7, and McCain +1, +1, +1.6 & +3 with one tie, for an average of Obama +0.7. The undecided range is 1 to 3%, which is enough to toss this state either way. The pollster trend lines shows Obama falling and McCain rising, with a composite that shows a tie as of 11-2. Also, the composite shows Barr at 1%, which has gotta be coming from McCain. There is a wealth of good Early Voting Data
out for North Carolina. Early voting here is up about 73% over what it was in 2004. Dems. make up 52% to 30% Rep., compared to 49% Dem.and 37% Rep. in 2004. The African-American early voters are at 27%, which I think is good, but there is no 2004 data to make comparisons. Although the early voting looks good for Obama, the trend lines do not, and the tightness in the polls indicates toss up.
North Dakota (3 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +0.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +1.3
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: Not a lot of polling data here, but the 3 October polls show McCain +1, Obama +2 and a tie. But the undecideds in these polls are high, in the 7 to 12% range, so they can easily swing the state either way. The pollster shows Obama rising and McCain falling with Obama at a +3 lead in the composite as of 10-29, but there is not really sufficient polling data in this state on which these trends are based, so a grain of salt must be taken. In the end, this seems like another state that has moved from the McCain side into "True Toss Up" territory.
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +21.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +18.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Comment: Nebraska apportions its electoral votes by State winner and by Congressional District winner, it is not a winner take all State. So the 5 EVs could get divided up if Obama can win a district.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +11
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +10.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.4
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The 6 polls since 10-28 show Obama +7, +7, +9, +11, +13 & +15, for an average of +10.3. The pollster trend lines shows Obama rising sharply and McCain falling sharply, with a composite that has Obama +11.3 as of 10-31. Its time to consider New Hampshire safe for Obama.
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.0
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +14.6
State Projection: Safe Obama
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +7
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.5
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. The other 2 recent polls show Obama at +10 & +17. The pollster trend lines shows Obama trending upward faster than McCain, with a composite that has Obama at +9 lead as of 10-31. Early voting here is up about 62% over what it was in 2004. The good news for Obama is that 53% of early voters so far are Dem. compared to only 33% Rep., a nearly 2 to 1 advantage.
Nevada (5 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.3
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. The 7 polls since 10-25 show Obama +4, +4, +4.2, +5, +7, +7.8 & +10, for an average of +6. The undecideds in these polls are generally in the 3% range, which is not really enough to tip the scales back to McCain. The pollster trend line has Obama rising sharply and McCain dropping, with a composite that shows Obama +6.8 as of 11-2. Early voting here is up about 67% state-wide over what it was in 2004. The good news for Obama is in Clark County where 52% of early voters so far are Dem. compared to only 31% Rep., and Washoe County where 47% of early voters so far are Dem. compared to only 35% Rep. These margins suggests that Obama is banking a significant early lead in the actual vote count. Nevada should now be considered a solid Obama lean state.
New York (31 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +29
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +29.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +28.5
State Projection: Safe Obama
Ohio (20 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Tie
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +4.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +4.1
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean
Comment: The 8 polls out since 10-27 show Obama at +2, +2, +4, +5.8, +6.3 & +7 and McCain at +2 with one tie, for an average of Obama +3.1. The undecideds in these polls generally range from 2 to 6%, which may be enough to swing it either way. The pollster trend line has Obama flat and McCain trending up a bit, with a composite that shows Obama to be up by +3.8 as of 11-2. So, while the most recent poll is a tie, Obama has had leads of +2 to +7 in the other recent polls, except for the Mason-Dixon (R-lean) poll showing McCain in the lead. In addition, keep in mind that this time around we have a Dem. Governor and SoS in Ohio, who have already shown a significant deference to "franchisement" of Ohio voters, unlike their Repub. predecessors in 2004.
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +29
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +27.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +26.1
State Projection: Safe McCain
Oregon (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +15.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +15.1
State Projection: Safe Obama
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +8.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +8.9
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The 8 polls out since 10-30 show Obama holding leads of +4, +6, +6, +7, +7, +8, +10 & +13.7, for an average of Obama +7.7. The undecideds in these polls range from about 2 to 4%, not likely enough for McCain to over take Obama. The pollster trend lines show Obama flat and McCain rising, with a composite Obama lead of almost +7.7 as of 11-2. If we look at the big picture Pennsylvania has been in the Obama column since day one and McCain has never even closed within the MOE of any poll. The McCain effort here is producing some very slow tightening, but it is no where near fast enough to seriously cut into Obama’s lead in the few hours that remain. All indications are that Pennsylvania is safe.
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: R.I. College
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +14
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23
State Projection: Safe Obama
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +11.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +11.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +9
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +8.9
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +8.6
State Projection: Safe McCain
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +16.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +14.7
State Projection: Safe McCain
Texas (34 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +12.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +12.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Utah (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-27-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Dan Johns
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +25.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.5
State Projection: Safe McCain
Virginia (13 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.7
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: Nine polls since 10-26 show Obama +3, +4, +4, +4, +4, +6, +6.1, +9 & +9, with an average of Obama lead of +5.4. The undecideds in these 8 polls are in the 2 to 3% range, which is not enough to make up the margin of Obama’s lead. The pollster trend lines show Obama with dipping a little and McCain rising a little, with a composite at Obama +5.7 as of 11-2. If McCain is gaining ground here, and that is questionable, it is not at a pace he would need to even put this state into a toss up category at this late hour. Virginia looks to be a stable 3 to 6 point lead for Obama, making its still a solid "Lean" Obama state.
Vermont (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +23.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.6
State Projection: Safe Obama
Washington (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +14.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +15.0
State Projection: Safe Obama
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.7
State Projection: Safe Obama
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +8.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +8.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Comment: The 6 polls since 10-20 have shown McCain with leads ranging from +6 to+13, with the most recent polls showing an upward McCain trend. While West Virginia at one time seemd possible for Obama, McCain appears to have put it safely in his column.
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +23.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
And Finally, the summary. Drum Roll Please!
SUMMARY [ 270 Electoral Votes To Win]
The Totals:
NOTE: The electoral votes in "(# EV)" are from my October 26 Diary, and are posted for comparison purposes.
Safe Obama = 264 EVs (260 EVs)
Safe McCain = 132 EVs (137 EVs)
Lean Obama = 27 EVs (51 EVs)
Lean McCain = 10 EVs (5 EVs)
Toss Up - Lean Obama = 47 EVs (22 EVs)
Toss Up - Lean McCain = 18 EVs (0 EVs)
Safe + Lean Obama = 291 EVs (311 EVs)
Safe + Lean McCain = 142 EVs (142 EVs)
Total Obama = 338 EVs (333 EVs)
Total McCain = 160 EVs (142 EVs)
True Toss Ups Are:
IN, MO, NC & ND = 40 EVs (unassigned)
COMMENTARY
While the numbers pretty much speak for themselves, the most significant is the fact that Obama gets over 270 with just his "safe" and "lean" states. At this point in the race with only hours left, the "lean" Obama states of Colorado, Nevada and Virginia really should be regarded as "safe" states because it isn’t realistic that a +4 or more Obama lead can be overcome. Since Obama only needs either Colorado or Nevada, to reach 270, and does not require any of the toss up states, an Obama win is as close as you get to a certainty at this point.
The real question left is what will the EV margin be and where the toss ups will go. The worst case scenario is Obama 291, McCain 247, where McCain picks up all the McCain, Obama and the true toss ups. Worst case, but highly unlikely. Best case is of course the opposite, where Obama wins all the toss ups making it Obama 398, McCain 142. Equally unlikely. The most likely result is of course somewhere inbetween.
Since I did say at the beginning I would stick my neck and give you my final pick by allocating all the EVs to the candidates, I guess its time. If I give each candidate his toss ups I get to Obama 338, McCain 160. Looking at the trend lines of the remaining true toss up states, I will give Obama Missouri and North Dakota, and give McCain Indian and North Carolina.
So My Final Pick is, wait for it:
Obama: 352
McCain: 186
Updated: After purusing the new polls over morning coffee, I decided to tweek my pick a bit and be a little more conservative. First,I have decided to move Florida to McCain. Its now very tight their and we have a history of not coming out on top of close races in Florida. I have also decided to move Missouri and North Dakota to McCain tobe conservative in these 2 coin toss states. That said I am moving North Carolina over to Obama. The impressive early voting their has caused me to believe there is a significant Obama lead in progress and that the high turnout will push him over the top. So my second guess is:
Obama: 326
McCain: 212
Hey A Win Is A Win!
Now its your turn. Please use the poll to pick what range Obama’s total electoral vote tally will be when all is tallied. Also, please feel free to explain your pick with a comment. Prizes will be awarded to those piking the correct range.
Lastly, don’t forget to say a prayer for the Obama family tonight in their time of loss!
Let’s all GOTV and Leave it all on the road!