So, one question on everyone's mind is, when will we know the result of the presidential election tonight? Will tonight be an Obamathon, where we wait for overburdened precincts in Philadelphia to release results that will determine a surprisingly close race in Pennsylvania? Or will it be a Barackalypse (h/t acacia951), with Georgia and Indiana going blue shortly after the polls close there at 7:00 PM Eastern time?
To help you decide, here's a map of what I consider to be the "canaries in the coal-mine" for a swift and decisive Obama victory:
If McCain loses even one of the orange states above early, the die will likely be cast in Obama's favor while the night is still young. If not, we'll probably have to wait until both Colorado and Pennsylvania report before we know the victor. But before going any further, consider the map. Every one of those states were carried by Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Obama is favored in FL, VA, and OH and seems to be on equal footing in MO and NC. What's really exciting is that Obama has a real chance at being competitive in GA and IN.
So, how did I decide which states to watch? I first determined what the "tipping point" states are for an Obama victory. In other words, if Obama were to barely squeak out a win in the electoral college, which state would be the closest in Obama's column? When I examined this (see my previous diary for more details), I determined that the most likely tipping point state is Colorado in 2/4 scenarios (the "PrincetonTP" and the "538TP" tabs in my tipping point spreadsheet) and Pennsylvania in the other two (the "PollsterTP" and "S-PollsterTP" tabs in my tipping point spreadsheet). What all four scenarios have in common is that, before either Pennsylvania or Colorado report their totals, we'll have several chances to guess based on the results of at least seven other states: IN, GA, VA, FL, OH, MO, and NC.
For reference, here are the closing times:
So, here are the early states to watch and what to expect depending on the winner of each:
- Tier 1: Indiana (poll closing time 6pm - 7pm):
Indiana:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 349-378 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 338-367 EVs
If Indiana is called for blue team reasonably soon after the polls close there, then this will truly be a big night for Obama. Unless it is a McCain blowout, don't expect to see definitive results until after 8pm when the polls in northwest Indiana close. That region is the most Obama rich in the state. Not only do their polls close later, they also had trouble reporting in a timely manner for the Democratic primaries this year. If Obama pulls off an Indiana win, then expect him to win no less than 348 electoral college votes, with his floor being in the 349-378 range. If this goes for McCain early, then expect a ceiling of 338-367.
- Tier 2: Georgia and Virginia (7 pm):
Georgia:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 393-396 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 378-381 EVs
If Georgia is called for Obama after 7 pm, then expect a truly epic electoral earthquake. I expect Obama to win no less than 393-396 EC votes in this case. If this happens, then Obama has a real shot at Arizona and the ultimate icing on the cake. However, it may be a long night in Georgia. The early voting lines have been as long as 8 hours in Obama friendly Atlanta. If it is called for McCain, then a very respectable 378-381 is still possible.
Virginia:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 286-311 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 273-298 EVs
If Virginia is called for Obama, then expect him to have a minimum electoral college haul of 286-311. But if McCain is called for Virginia, we may be in for a long night, as that would seem to put Obama's ceiling as low as 273 EVs.
- Tier 3: Ohio (7:30 pm):
Florida:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 338 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 311 EVs
Both tier 3 states have real symbolic meaning to Democrats this year. Winning either or both in the course of electing Obama president would be an appropriate way to end this election.
Ohio:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 298-311 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 278-291 EVs
Ohio is very much like Virginia. If Obama wins, he'll get a decent win, well worthy of being called a mandate. If he loses, it isn't the end of the world, but it would definitely tend to skew the night to Obamathon territory and pretty much preclude a Barackalypse.
- Tier 4: Missouri and North Carolina(7:30 - 8 pm):
Missouri:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 349-367 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 338-356 EVs
Missouri looks a lot Indiana and Missouri in that losing it still allows for a mandate victory.
North Carolina:
Obama wins: Obama's floor = 353-378 EVs
McCain wins: Obama's ceiling = 338-363 EVs
Ahhh. North Carolina. NC and MO are virtually identical in the rankings, being adjacent in 3/4 of them and only separated by MT in the sensitive Pollster.com ranking. This is my Macbook state. If NC is the reddest state that Obama wins, then I've nailed the EC vote in two of the scenarios. And it looks even money right now.
Keep in mind, the rankings of many of these states, IN, MO, and NC in particular, are very fluid. The good news is that McCain more or less needs to run the table to have a reasonable chance at winning, but a single victory puts Obama in very good position. Tonight should be a good one for the boys and girls in blue. As they say in Chinese, 加油!