I live in Germantown, TN, a suburb of Memphis and one of the reddest parts of the state. How Red are we? In 2004 Bush defeated Kerry in TN-07 (my district) by 31% (65% - 34%). Our representative is the horrible Marsha Blackburn. Earlier this year she got in hot water for paying her own family hundreds of thousands of dollars for their "campaign support" even though she has never been seriously contested and generally runs unopposed for reelection. Her son-in-law is a lobbyist for a firm that does business before Marsha's committee – a clear conflict of interest, but one which Marsha says doesn't violate the letter of the law so it must be okay. Despite all of this, Marsha routinely gets reelected because she has a R next to her name on the ballot. CQ lists my district as R+30.
A couple of times a week my wife and I walk the neighborhood, and over the years we've developed a recurring route that we take each time. One day back in September of 2004 my wife veered off our usual course before we reached a cul-du-sac that we'd normally walk. "What's up?" I asked. "I just don't feel like going down 'Bush Cove' anymore." I hadn't really realized it, but all 8 houses on the cove had Bush-Cheney signs in the front yard. They weren't alone. As we walked the neighborhood I began to realize there were very few 'undecideds' around our block. For every 10 Bush-Cheney signs there would be one empty yard. Ours was the only Kerry-Edwards sign in the neighborhood. And this was in September! Almost 2 full months before the general election!
Flash forward to 2008, and I'm happy to report that "Bush Cove" has but a single McCain-Palin sign on display. Where once there were dozens of Bush-Cheney signs, there are fewer than 10 McCain-Palin signs on display. There are presently 5 Obama-Biden signs. There would be 6, but mine was stolen, and unlike 2004 I don't have any backups this time around.
This morning I went to vote at 7:45. The polls opened at 7, and the line, while longer than it was during the 2006 mid-term election, took me no longer than 20 minutes to get through. One of the poll workers said that at 7 am when the polls opened the line was at its apex and it took 35 minutes to get through. In 2004 it took us nearly 2 hours to vote.
These are not the signs of a motivated base. I know this is anecdotal evidence, but it's GOOD anecdotal evidence so I figured I'd share.
That having been said, continue to treat today like Obama is 10 points down! Obama's not going to win Tennessee. While a demoralized R+30 district is a good thing, it's still not enough to win an election! Ring doorbells, call registered voters, help the disabled get to the polls! Let's become the "change" we've been looking for!