If, like me, you'll be going on the Internets tonight to follow the returns state-by-state and county-by-county, you may want to use the 2004 Bush-Kerry county benchmarks I've provided below, to see if Obama is running ahead of, even with, or behind Kerry. Generally, I included counties with 100,000 or more votes, but in some smaller states, I lowered the threshold. My starting point in obtaining the data was: http://www.cnn.com/...
UPDATE: For the states after Montana alphabetically, I've generally upped the criterion to around 150,000 population, in the interest of time. Also, many of the remaining states are heavy on big cities.
ARIZONA
(Overall)
Bush 1,104,294 55%
Kerry 893,524 44%
Maricopa
Bush 679,455 57%
Kerry 504,849 42%
Pima
Kerry 193,128 53%
Bush 171,109 47%
COLORADO
(Overall)
Bush 1,101,255 52%
Kerry 1,001,732 47%
Adams
Kerry 69,122 51%
Bush 65,912 48%
Arapahoe
Bush 119,475 51%
Kerry 110,262 48%
Boulder
Kerry 105,564 66%
Bush 51,586 32%
Denver
Kerry 166,135 70%
Bush 69,903 29%
Douglas
Bush 80,651 67%
Kerry 39,661 33%
El Paso
Bush 161,361 67%
Kerry 77,648 32%
Jefferson
Bush 140,644 52%
Kerry 126,558 47%
Larimer
Bush 75,884 52%
Kerry 68,266 47%
FLORIDA
(Overall)
Bush 3,964,522 52%
Kerry 3,583,544 47%
Alachua
Kerry 62,504 56%
Bush 47,762 43%
Brevard
Bush 153,068 58%
Kerry 110,309 42%
Broward
Kerry 453,873 64%
Bush 244,674 35%
Collier
Bush 83,631 65%
Kerry 43,892 34%
Duval
Bush 220,190 58%
Kerry 158,610 42%
Escambia
Bush 93,566 65%
Kerry 48,329 34%
Hillsborough
Bush 245,576 53%
Kerry 214,132 46%
Lake
Bush 74,389 60%
Kerry 48,221 39%
Lee
Bush 144,176 60%
Kerry 93,860 39%
Leon
Kerry 83,873 62%
Bush 51,615 38%
Manatee
Bush 81,318 57%
Kerry 61,262 43%
Marion
Bush 81,283 58%
Kerry 57,271 41%
Miami-Dade
Kerry 409,732 53%
Bush 361,095 47%
Orange
Kerry 193,354 50%
Bush 192,539 50%
Palm Beach
Kerry 328,687 61%
Bush 212,688 39%
Pasco
Bush 103,230 54%
Kerry 84,749 45%
Pinellas
Bush 225,686 50%
Kerry 225,460 49%
Polk
Bush 123,559 59%
Kerry 86,009 41%
Sarasota
Bush 104,692 54%
Kerry 88,442 45%
Seminole
Bush 108,172 58%
Kerry 76,971 42%
St. Lucie
Kerry 51,835 52%
Bush 47,592 48%
Volusia
Kerry 115,519 51%
Bush 111,924 49%
GEORGIA
(Overall)
Bush 1,914,254 58%
Kerry 1,366,149 41%
Chatham
Kerry 45,630 50%
Bush 45,484 50%
Cobb
Bush 173,467 62%
Kerry 103,955 37%
DeKalb
Kerry 200,787 73%
Bush 73,570 26%
Fulton
Kerry 199,436 59%
Bush 134,372 40%
Gwinnett
Bush 160,445 66%
Kerry 81,708 33%
INDIANA
(Overall)
Bush 1,479,438 60%
Kerry 969,011 39%
Allen
Bush 82,013 63%
Kerry 46,710 36%
Hamilton
Bush 77,887 74%
Kerry 26,388 25%
Lake
Kerry 114,743 61%
Bush 71,903 38%
Marion
Kerry 162,249 50%
Bush 156,072 49%
IOWA
(Overall)
Bush 751,957 50%
Kerry 741,898 49%
Johnson (not quite 100K, but still relatively big)
Kerry 41,847 64%
Bush 22,715 35%
Linn
Kerry 60,442 55%
Bush 49,442 45%
Polk
Kerry 105,218 52%
Bush 95,828 48%
Scott
Kerry 42,122 51%
Bush 39,958 49%
MICHIGAN
(Overall)
Kerry 2,479,183 51%
Bush 2,313,746 48%
Genessee
Kerry 128,334 60%
Bush 83,870 39%
Kalamazoo
Kerry 61,462 51%
Bush 57,147 48%
Kent
Bush 171,201 59% 100%
Kerry 116,909 40%
Macomb
Bush 202,166 50%
Kerry 196,160 49%
Oakland
Kerry 319,387 50%
Bush) 316,633 49%
Ottawa
Bush 92,048 72%
Kerry 35,552 28%
Saginaw
Kerry 54,887 53%
Bush 47,165 46%
Washtenaw
Kerry 109,953 63%
Bush 61,455 36%
Wayne
Kerry 600,047 69%
Bush 257,750 30%
MINNESOTA
(Overall)
Kerry 1,445,014 51%
Bush 1,346,695 48%
Anoka
Bush 91,853 53%
Kerry 80,226 46%
Dakota
Bush 108,959 51%
Kerry 104,635 49%
Hennepin
Kerry 383,841 59%
Bush 255,133 40%
Ramsey
Kerry 171,846 63%
Bush 97,096 36%
St. Louis
Kerry 77,958 65%
Bush 40,112 34%
Washington
Bush 65,751 51% 100% of precincts reporting
Kerry 61,395 48%
MISSOURI
(Overall)
Bush 1,455,713 53%
Kerry 1,259,171 46%
Clay
Bush 51,193 53%
Kerry 44,670 46%
Greene
Bush 77,885 62%
Kerry 46,657 37%
Jackson
Kerry 183,654 58%
Bush 130,500 41%
Jefferson
Bush 46,624 50%
Kerry 46,057 49%
St. Charles
Bush 95,826 59%
Kerry 66,855 41%
St. Louis (City)
Kerry 116,133 80%
Bush 27,793 19%
St. Louis (County)
Kerry 295,284 55%
Bush 244,969 45%
MONTANA
(Overall)
Bush 266,063 59%
Kerry 173,710 39%
Relatively large counties
Cascade
Bush 19,028 57% 100%
Kerry 13,701 41%
Flathead
Bush 26,019 67%
Kerry 11,587 30%
Gallatin
Bush 22,392 56%
Kerry 16,405 41%
Missoula
Kerry 26,983 52%
Bush 23,989 46%
Yellowstone
Bush 40,903 62%
Kerry 24,120 37%
NEVADA
(Overall)
Bush 418,690 51%
Kerry 397,190 48%
Clark
Kerry 281,767 52%
Bush 255,337 47%
Washoe
Bush 81,545 51%
Kerry 74,841 47%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
(Overall)
Kerry 340,511 50%
Bush 331,237 49%
Concord
Kerry 12,675 60%
Bush 8,210 39%
Manchester
Bush 23,286 50%
Kerry 23,116 50%
Nashua
Kerry 21,587 54%
Bush 18,016 45%
NEW MEXICO
(Overall)
Bush 376,930 50%
Kerry 370,942 49%
Bernalillo
Kerry 132,252 52%
Bush 121,454 47%
Dona Ana
Kerry 31,762 51%
Bush 29,548 48%
San Juan
Bush 29,525 66%
Kerry 14,843 33%
Sandoval
Bush 22,628 51%
Kerry 21,421 48%
Santa Fe
Kerry 47,074 71%
Bush 18,466 28%
NORTH CAROLINA
(Overall)
Bush 1,961,166 56%
Kerry 1,525,849 44%
Buncombe
Bush 52,491 50%
Kerry 51,868 49%
Durham
Kerry 74,524 68%
Bush 34,614 32%
Forsyth
Bush 75,294 54%
Kerry 63,340 46%
Guilford
Kerry 100,042 50%
Bush 98,254 49%
Mecklenburg
Kerry 166,828 52%
Bush 155,084 48%
Wake
Bush 177,324 51%
Kerry 169,909 49%
NORTH DAKOTA
(Overall)
Bush 196,651 63%
Kerry 111,052 36%
Cass
Bush 39,619 60%
Kerry 26,010 39%
OHIO
(Overall)
Bush 2,859,764 51%
Kerry 2,741,165 49%
Butler
Bush 109,872 66%
Kerry 56,243 34%
Cuyahoga
Kerry 448,503 67%
Bush 221,600
Franklin
Kerry 285,801 55%
Bush 237,253 45%
Hamilton
Bush 222,616 53%
Kerry 199,679 47%
Lorain
Kerry 78,970 56%
Bush 61,203 44%
Lucas
Kerry 132,715 60%
Bush 87,160 40%
Mahoning
Kerry 83,194 63%
Bush 48,761 37%
Montgomery
Kerry 142,997 51%
Bush 138,371 49%
Stark
Kerry 95,337 51%
Bush 92,215 49%
Summit
Kerry 156,587 57%
Bush 118,558 43%
PENNSYLVANIA
Kerry 2,938,095 51%
Bush 2,793,847 49%
Allegheny
Kerry 368,912 57%
Bush 271,925 42%
Beaver (cited by Gov. Rendell as one to look at)
Kerry 42,146 51%
Bush 39,916 49%
Berks
Bush 87,122 53%
Kerry 76,309 47%
Bucks
Kerry 163,438 51%
Bush 154,469 48%
Chester
Bush 120,036 52%
Kerry 109,708 48%
Delaware
Kerry 162,601 57%
Bush 120,425 42%
Erie
Kerry 67,921 54%
Bush 57,372 46%
Lancaster
Bush 145,591 66%
Kerry 74,328 34%
Lehigh
Kerry 73,940 51%
Bush 70,160 48%
Luzerne
Kerry 69,573 51%
Bush 64,953 48%
Montgomery
Kerry 222,048 56%
Bush 175,741 44%
Northampton
Kerry 63,446 50%
Bush 62,102 49%
Philadelphia
Kerry 542,205 81%
Bush 130,099 19%
Westmoreland
Bush 100,087 56%
Kerry 77,774 44%
York
Bush 114,270 64%
Kerry 63,701 36%
VIRGINIA
(Overall)
Bush 1,716,959 54%
Kerry 1,454,742 46%
Chesterfield
Bush 83,745 63%
Kerry 49,346 37%
Fairfax
Kerry 245,671 54%
Bush 211,980 46%
Henrico
Bush 71,809 54%
Kerry 60,864 46%
Prince William
Bush 69,776 53%
Kerry 61,271 47%
Virginia Beach
Bush 103,752 59%
Kerry 70,666 40%
WISCONSIN
(Overall)
Kerry 1,489,504 50%
Bush 1,478,120 49%
Brown
Bush 67,173 54%
Kerry 54,935 45%
Dane
Kerry 181,052 66%
Bush 90,369 33%
Milwaukee
Kerry 297,653 62%
Bush 180,287 37%
Waukesha
Bush 154,926 67%
Kerry 73,626 32%