Barack Obama has been elected President of the United States. Outside my Washington, DC window I can hear the cheers and honking horns of a happy multitude celebrating his victory. There is a spontaneous gathering of revelers a few blocks away in front of the White House. Not all of America shares the excitement felt by this city, but much of it believes in Obama's message of hope, and I doubt very many do not expect him to deliver on his promise of change.
I cannot count myself among the joyful. In the last month or two of this campaign, I came to support Barack Obama. Senator Obama earned my respect and my vote with his dedication to principles that I believe in, the strength of his organization, and above all his intelligence. I have many disagreements with his policies, and many worries about his philosophies, but he proved himself worthier than his opponents to become our President, and I am glad that he was chosen. Still when I look to the future I feel anxiety, not hope.
The challenges faced by America in the coming years will not be like any before experienced. The curse of history is that we always see our present problems in terms of the past. But if we approach today's problems as if they were those of yesterday, we risk creating even worse difficulties for ourselves. I do not know how President Obama will approach these problems, but I have seen how public opinion has, and so I worry.
The American economy has now indisputably slipped into a recession. It is not yet as bad as the newscasters and politicians have led the public to believe, but it will almost certainly get worse. This is not the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, and it would take serious missteps by our government to make it so. But we have a problem, and it goes beyond the boom-bust swings of the business cycle. The world economy is undergoing a transformation almost as dramatic as the industrial revolution, and perhaps of greater consequence, and the United States is having difficulty adapting. Our economy is built to excel by 20th century standards, but we stand to be left behind by the 21st century.
We are no longer competitive in labor-intensive manufacturing and agriculture. But because these are the traditional strengths of our economy and the provider of so many Americans' jobs, our political system is eager to preserve these sectors as they have been. We are becoming hostile to free trade and immigration, both of which are essential to maintaining America's leading economic position into the future. Our education system and our social safety nets are not well designed to train new workers and prepare the existing labor force for the sort of labor market which will define the leading economies of the 21st century. We have all but ignored the service sector when we should be embracing it. Our politicians like to stress the importance of boosting education in math and science. These are important, but they were the primary tools of innovation in the manufacturing economy. American children today also need better training in finance, communication, and business if they are to excel in the 21st century economy. It will no longer suffice for our schools to build intellectual capital, they must build social capital too. We must train the business leaders of the next century, we must seek them out abroad and bring them to our country, and we must remain as integrated as possible in the global economy so that our businesses can prosper. Above all what we cannot do is give in to the old temptations of protectionism and nativism, cut ourselves off from the other peoples and economies of the world, and allow ourselves to suffer the stagnation which will result.
Barack Obama is a politician, not an economist, but he has an extraordinary team of economic advisors who understand these problems, and he has the intelligence to listen to them and to think critically about the solutions they offer. Perhaps most importantly he has the ability to bring these issues before the American public, to speak honestly and candidly about the challenges the country must overcome. Few politicians are blessed with his talent for bringing people together to confront tough issues like these, and if Obama has the courage to confront them himself, he can bring America through the tough times to emerge even stronger. But it will take courage. The right decisions are not easy ones, and they will mean a tremendous amount of pain for Americans who are already suffering, and who certainly do not deserve more. Yet the future health and prosperity of the nation depends upon it. If Barack Obama is willing to step up and lead us on that path, America will follow him.
I am also anxious about America's political position in the world. The Bush administration has left the reputation of our country in tatters across the developed nations and in much of the developing world. Barack Obama has promised to restore this reputation and to build a new cooperation with our allies. The populations of many other countries are themselves eager to start over with a new, more respectful, American government. But it is easy to paint an overly optimistic picture of world politics for the new President. Cooperation is meaningless without an objective in mind, and America's biggest problem with the world has always been that we have an agenda and the power to pursue it. The Obama administration must also have an agenda for its foreign policy if it is to leave the world and America a better place than it will inherit in January.
In his victory speech, Obama declared a firm opposition to "those who would tear down the world". "We will defeat you" was his commitment. He also said that America's strength does not come from our military or economic might, but from our ideals: "democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope". Perhaps, but if we are truly to defeat those who oppose those ideals, it will require force of arms and investment of wealth. Obama said that we support "those who seek peace and security". Let us hope. But the liberal world order is facing growing challenges and a diminishing relative power to oppose them. The threats come from many places and exist on many levels. Civil strife continues in the Congo, will America commit troops to restore order and money to build a functioning society? Economic hardship continues to drive conflict in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, will America commit there as well? We have not had a good record of intervention in these sorts of conflicts, but it is in these environments that the terrorists and violent radicals emerge who go on the destroy their own countries and spread chaos to other parts of the world. They also come from the repressive and illiberal conditions which prevail across much of the Middle East, where America has been reluctant to shake up the prevailing order of things. Can we stand up to our allies of convenience in the Arab Kingdoms who continue to stand in the way of the true democracies and open societies which are the essential building blocks of peace and prosperity throughout the world? Can we show the tough love that is needed to our genuine friend and ally Israel, whose political and economic strangulation of the Palestinian territories continues to be a radicalizing force and a blight on theirs and our reputations?
Perhaps the most frightening question is how the future America will respond to large-scale national threats to our friends and interests in this world. The Bush administration has offered only timid criticism of Russia's slide towards autocracy, and delayed and weak responses to Russian agression against our friends and allies along its borders. Americans are frightened of restarting the Cold War and of being drawn into real hostilities with another powerful nation such as Russia. Many of our NATO allies are themselves fearful of antagonizing Russia, out of fear of both conflict and jeopardizing business opportunities. But we cannot promote liberty around the world if we are unwilling to stand up for it, and stand up forcefully. Russia is not Hitler's Germany, and the risk of appeasement is not Russian troops marching in conquest of Europe. But Russia is an illiberal state seeking to establish and defend its own sphere of influence able to disregard the goals and power of the United States. If our goals are not those of petty self-interest, if we truly value freedom, democracy, and opportunity for all nations, then this is not acceptable. We are blessed with great power, but unless we are willing to use it to stand up for what we believe, then we are not worthy of it. This is my greatest worry about an Obama administration, that he will bow to fear and compromise on our principles abroad to defend them only at home. I have been convinced that he has the right ideals for this country, I can only hope that he has the conviction to always stand up for them. When China asks him if the defense of Taiwanese democracy is worth a nuke over Los Angeles, will his answer be "yes"?
It is always easy to make the promises, keeping them is the hard part. The people of the United States have elected Barack Obama, a man with rare potential for truly great leadership. But the true test is yet to come. In January, promises will cease to be enough, and Obama will be measured by his actions. The people outside are cheering because they elected a President who promised them many things. But I cheered when George W. Bush was elected, and when he steps down in January I do not think I will feel justified in my sentiments then. So I will wait four years to see what Obama does before I cheer. If he lives up to his words, I will shout with all the enthusiasm of my heart.