When I chatted with my fellow volunteers at the Obama call center in Tampa, we often talked about how we not only wanted Obama to win the election but how we desperately wanted him to take Florida. The Sunshine State stings for all of us in presidential election history, but particularly so for Floridians. We all felt that an Obama win would be a big start in helping erase the painful stain of 2000. So it thrills me to be able to write this diary to look at How Obama Won Florida (I'll never tire of saying that phrase!).
First, let's look at how Obama won Florida in terms of geography.
1. Obama won BIG in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade.
Obama had to rack up big margins in these Democratic counties, and he did just that, winning Palm Beach County with 62% of the vote, Broward County with a whopping 68% of the vote and Miami-Dade County with 58%. These percentages are all higher than 2004, when Kerry won Palm Beach with 61%, Broward with 64% and Miami-Dade with 53%.
2. Obama won the I-4 corridor.
We always said that whichever presidential candidate won the I-4 corridor in central Florida would win the state, and that was certainly the case this year. Obama won some major victories in this corridor, which went almost entirely for Bush in 2004. On the western end of the corridor, Obama won Pinellas County (home of St. Petersburg) with 54% of the vote and Hillsborough (home to my city of Tampa!) with 50% of the vote. In 2004, Bush won Pinellas with 50% of the vote and Hillsborough by a sizable 53%-46% margin.
But the real shocker last night came in the central part of the I-4 corridor. Obama won Osceola County with a stunning 60% of the vote (Bush took Osceola 53%-47% in 2004) and won Orange County, home to Orlando, with an equally stunning 59% of the vote (Bush and Kerry tied at 50-50 in Orange County in 2004). On the eastern end of the corridor, Obama also won Volusia County, home to Daytona Beach, and Flagler County north of Volusia, with 52% and 50% of the vote respectively.
Obama also won all the other Florida counties that Kerry won in 2004, by similar or larger margins, including Alachua County (home to Gainesville and the University of Florida) with 60% of the vote (vs. 56% in 2004).
In terms of demographics, Obama also made some important gains that were the key to his victory in Florida.
3. Obama won the Hispanic/Latino vote.
In a major reversal from 2004, Obama won 57% of Florida's Hispanic/Latino vote to McCain's 42%, which comprised 14% of the state's electorate this year. This is an exact flip from 2004, when Bush won 57% of this all-important vote to Kerry's 42%. As the Miami Herald noted:
Once a reliable Republican voting bloc, Hispanics have shifted more toward Democrats in recent years as South and Central Americans started swelling the voter rolls statewide and curbing the influence of Miami-Dade's Cuban Americans, who comprise about 70 percent of the county's Republican voter rolls. Obama carried Miami-Dade County by 140,000 votes and Broward County by almost 240,000.
"The politics driven by the embargo and Fidel Castro are becoming long gone," said Obama's Florida campaign manager, Steve Schale, who noted that younger Cuban-Americans seemed to be shifting toward the Democrats as well.
4. Obama won nearly all of the African American vote.
This is not surprising, but still significant. Obama won 96% of Florida's African American vote, an improvement from Kerry's 86%. African Americans represented 13% of the state's voters this year, up from 12% four years ago.
5. Obama held on to the white vote.
Obama won the votes of 42% of Florida's white votes, the exact same percentage as Kerry.
6. Obama won nearly all age groups.
Obama certainly won Florida's youth vote (ages 18-29), 61%-37%, but he also tied McCain in the 30-44 category and won the 45-64 category, 52%-47%. Bush creamed Kerry in this age category in 2004, 57%-42%. The 65+ age group is the only one that McCain won, but even here Obama managed to get 45% of the vote.
In terms of election strategy, Obama also won Florida by overpowering McCain here in terms of his ground operations, organization, and financial power -- all key to winning a big state like Florida. He zeroed in on the economy in a way that resonated with Florida voters.
The economy was Obama's trump card. And he played it by pouring an unprecedented sum into the state on field offices, voter registrations, get-out-the-vote efforts and television ads, which drive poll numbers in a state as big as Florida.
The Herald points out Obama's winning strategic formula in Florida:
- Superior organization: More voters said they were contacted by mail, phone or in person for Obama than for McCain -- a sign of a more robust get-out-the-vote effort. As an Obama volunteer in Florida, I can attest to the campaign's impressive on-the-ground operation here, which should benefit the Democratic Party in the state for years to come.
- Early vote push: The campaign made an unprecedented push to bank early votes, giving the Democrats an edge of up to 400,000 ballots cast before Election Day even started.
- Ad spending: Obama edged McCain by as much as a 5:1 margin in TV ads. This was clearly noticeable to anyone watching TV in the state. I would see 5-10 Obama ads for every 1 McCain ad. The Obama ads were all well-done ('natch), and ever-changing, and mostly positive (even the few negative ads were never nasty attack ads but true and clever ads like the excellent rear-view mirror ad), while the McCain ads were always negative and usually pretty horrible (anyone see that awful turbulent seas ad? Laughable).
- An effective message, presented well: Obama succeeded in portraying McCain to Floridians as an out-of-touch President Bush clone who can't bring change.
The exit polls suggest the message stuck.
About 56 percent of voters said McCain is not "in touch with people," while 57 percent said Obama was in touch.
About 47 percent of voters said McCain would continue Bush's policies while about as many thought he would bring change. But of those voters who said that "bringing about change" was the most important issue, 92 percent favored Obama.
Even though Floridians passed the horrible anti-gay marriage amendment yesterday, I am thrilled that Florida was able to bring it home for Obama in such a resounding way. I think we took a big step toward political redemption. Here's to a Blue Florida for a long time to come.