California has a unique way of counting votes due to the very liberal absentee ballot rules. Almost half the people in the state now vote absentee, but how the votes are counted is very interesting. There have been many past examples where results have changed when all votes are finally counted. Details below the fold.
First, the early absentee votes are verified and counted and reported the minute the polls close. These votes are always more Republican. For example, this election the first returns showed Obama leading by about 6% and Prop 8 leading by about 10%.
Next, the election day non-absentee votes are counted. These votes are always more Democratic and have brought the numbers to what you see now. Obama +24% and Prop 8 +4%
The last step is still to come. There are still 3 to 4 million uncounted late absentee ballots compared to the 10 million already counted votes. These votes usually follow the same pattern as the election day vote. In order for No on 8 to catch up, these votes would need to split 45-55, which initially seems unlikely.
But consider this: The exit polls show that the strongest opponents of Prop 8 are White and Asian voters, while African American voters supported it strongly and Latinos supported it mildly. So if the remaining absentee ballots are more weighted towards moderate to liberal white and Asian voters, there is a reasonable possibility that Prop 8 could still fail.
The truth is, no one knows yet where these 3-4 million votes are from, and I admit this scenario is unlikely, but I certainly am not giving up yet after leaving everything on the road for this initiative.
I spent all day precinct walking yesterday and met some wonderful people. I also met the ugly: a women and her child walked by us. She quickly pulled her child away and told her "Jesus doesn't love those people."
Keep in mind I'm a middle-aged married straight white guy who lives in the suburbs, but I put my heart into this campaign. This is the first time I have ever been an activist but if I don't stand up for you, who will stand up for me?
Please wait for the votes to be counted.
Thank You
Two links to read:
The secretary of state will tomorrow announce the uncounted absentee ballots at this site (which is currently FUBAR):
Read this to know why many opponents of Prop 8 are not conceding.