One of my favorite House candidates this cycle is Linda Ketner, a lesbian progressive seeking to unseat a Republican incumbent in deep-red South Carolina.
Some of you may be seeing Ketner down 53-47 in the poll count to her execrable opponent, jowly conservative timewaster Henry E. Brown Jr., and think "so close and yet so far".
I'm here to tell you - Don't Count Linda Out!
LATE UPDATE : Oh no! I just got news that Linda has conceded after all. It looks like she may have jumped the gun if my calculations are correct. I hope this won't turn out to have been a mistake! Linda, I salute your valiant fight...
She is still very much alive and that, I understand, is why she's still not conceded. In the current Official Board of Elections tallies, Linda trails by 137,435 to 121,922, a margin of 15,513 votes.
Seems decisive, right? Think again. Only three of the five counties are fully reported, and what's more Linda's base in Charleston holds almost all the unreported precincts.
Horry County, where Brown is winning 57-43, has one unreported precinct of 118 left. Assuming he wins at the same rate, there, he should pick up about another 114 votes. Can Linda make up 15,627 votes in Charleston County?
You bet!
Only 53 of 153 precincts in Charleston County have reported. This is the biggest population by far in the South Carolina First, and it's barely one-third in. And Linda Ketner is winning the county by 18 points right now!
If we project the remaining precincts to be carried in the same fashion, with the same number of votes, as the existing precincts (this may undercount, since the biggest precincts usually get counted last), we would expect Linda Ketner to make up...
...wait for it...
Fifteen Thousand...
Six Hundred...
and Thirty-Seven votes.
Leaving her a princely ten votes ahead.
I am hoping, when they Count Every Vote down in the Palmetto State, that Linda Ketner will be the next member of the House of Representatives. Know hope!